Peace and Stability Creating a WinWin Situation in CrossStrait Relations

1
Peace and Stability Creating a Win-Win
Situation in Cross-Strait Relations

• Jaushieh Joseph Wu
• Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan

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Contents

• Trend of military balance
• Suppression in the international arena
• Democracy in Taiwan
• Trend of current exchanges
• Cross-strait policies after May 20th

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Cross-Strait Military Balance
4
Military Budget China vs. Taiwan(in billion USD)
5
Chinas Military Budget Growth()
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Chinas Military Modernization

• Air force SU-27, SU-30, J-10
• Navy Sovremenny class destroyers, Ming, Kilo,
  Song, and Yuan submarines
• Missiles Short/mid-range ballistic missiles,
  MIRVs, cruise missiles, SLBMs
• Space tech, navigation, radar planes, UAV
• Revolution of military affairs
• Conduct international joint exercises

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Chinas 3 Warfares Against Taiwan

• Media warfare
• Psychological warfare
• Legal warfare
• China officially approved the amended
  Regulations on the Political Work of the People's
  Liberation Army, including the proposed "three
  warfares." (Dec. 2003)

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Suppression in the International Arena
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Chinas Diplomatic Suppression

• Deny Taiwans sovereign status
• Sabotage Taiwans relations with diplomatic
  allies
• Intervene in Taiwans interactions with
  non-diplomatic allies
• Obstruct Taiwans participation in international
  organizations and activities

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Suppression Against Taiwan (after May 20th)

• 0708 Berlin International Choir Olympics
• 0801 East Asia Common Space conference in Seoul
• 0816 UN stamp design contest to promote peace
• 1027 Nuremberg International Invention Exhibition
• 1116 Milan International Hair Styling Contest
• 0106 Aid delivery to tsunami affected areas
• 0512 Presidential SG denied visa to attend LI in
  Bulgaria
• 0608 WorldSkills Competition 2005 in Helsinki
• 1022 APEC meeting in South Korea
• 0117 International conference on bird flu in
  China

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Democracy in Taiwan

• A proper understanding

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Taiwans Path to Democratization

• 1986 founding of the DPP
• 1987 lifting of martial law
• 1991 abolition of the Emergency Decree
• 1991-2 complete parliamentary reform
• 1996 first popular presidential elections
• 2000 first peaceful transfer of power
• 2004 first national referendum

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Mistaking Taiwans Democracy

• Interpret major reforms as independence
• Independence to define all democratic reforms
• Attempts to contain Taiwan
• Misunderstanding leads to mistaken policies and
  failure to win peoples approval

14
Constitution Reengineering

• Current constitution written in 1947 for China
• Major constitution issues central government
  system, National Assembly, LY election,
  referendum, provincial government, voting age,
  national economy, civil rights
• Sovereignty issues not included
• Constitutional procedures to be followed
• 1st step of constitution reengineering approved
  in June 2005

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Unification vs. Independence
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Public Opinion on Diplomacy
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Perception of Chinas Hostility
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One Country, Two Systems
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Trend of Current Exchanges

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Taiwans Foreign Investments
(1991-2006.02)
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Taiwans Invested Industries Labor Intensive?
Jan-Feb 2006
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Current Cross-Strait Trade
763.7mil (16.2)
616.4mil (33.1)
463.2mil (23.8)
???
374.1mil (24.9)
100 million USD
64.3mil (3.2)
Cross-strait trade totaled 76.37 billion USD in
2005,for a growth rate of16.2 Cross-strait
trade totaled 6.43 billion USD in Jan 2006, for a
growth rate of3.2
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Trade Dependence on China?
Total export with China accounted for 27.3 in
2005 (37.8 including Hong Kong).Total export
with China accounted for 27.6 in Jan 2006(38.9
including Hong Kong).
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Taiwanese Traveling to China
4.11 million
3.69 million
3.66 million
2.73 million
100 thousand people
560 thousand
The number of Taiwanese traveling to China has
totaled 38.54 million people as of Feb 2006560
thousand Taiwanese people traveled to China
between Jan to Feb 2006.
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Chinese Visiting Taiwan
173
155
139
134
Number of people (1000)
As of Feb 2006, a total of 1.333 million Chinese
people have visited Taiwan218 thousand people
have engaged in specialized exchanges.
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Opening Measures After 2000

• Implemented the Mini Three Links
• Expanded offshore shipping center
• Active liberalization with effective management
• Allowed Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan
• Adjusted WTO cross-strait economic policy
• Facilitated and promoted air and shipping cargo
• Allowed charter flights during Lunar New Year

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Liberalization of cultural and educational
exchanges

• Approved 164,388 exchange visits (as of Feb 2006)
• Approved importation of 15,542,780 volumes of
  publications (as of 4th quarter of 2005)
• Permitted stationing of Chinese reporters
• Approved sale of simplified Chinese college
  textbooks
• Allowed Taiwanese universities to promote
  education in China
• Allowed universities on both sides to sign
  agreements

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Specialized Exchanges
Number of people
Month
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Problems in Cross-Strait Exchanges

• Chinas political motives
• Chinas domestic social problems
• Chinas domestic economic problems
• Chinas domestic political problems

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Taiwans Cross-Strait Policies After May 20th

• Goodwill and reconciliation
• Active cooperation
• Permanent peace

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Urgent Issues for Negotiation
 
 
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• Thank You

Jaushieh Joseph Wu Mainland Affairs Council,
Taiwan