Future NCEP Guidance Support for Surface Transportation

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Future NCEP Guidance Support for Surface
Transportation

• Stephen Lord
• Director, NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
• 26 July 2007

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Overview

• Weather for Roads, Air transportation, etc.
• National picture
• New ensemble products
• Local picture
• Downscaling
• Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
• Land Information System (LIS)
• Dynamical Statistical approach
• Marine applications
• Waves
• Water levels
• Data availability
• Whats needed to move ahead

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New Ensemble Products fromNCEP Storm Prediction
Center

• NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System
• National coverage 30 km grid
• Probabilistic guidance with extremes

SREF Maximum (any member) 3h Accumulated Snowfall
SREF PrPtype ZR and Mean P03I (contours)
SREF 6h Calibrated Probability of Snow/Ice Accum
Accumulation based on MADIS road surface
condition
D. Bright NCEP/SPC
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SREF Likely PTYPE and Mean P03I (contours)
24 h Fcst Precip Type, Amount 32 F Isotherm
ZR
Snow
D. Bright NCEP/SPC
IP
Rain
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Downscaling

• Future computing requirements
• National scale 20 years to reach sufficient
  resolution
• Dynamical-statistical approach
• Real time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
• Land Information System (LIS)
• Bias correction and statistical processing
• Components under development

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Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)

• 5 km National (NGDG) grid (eventually 2.5 km)
• Hourly analysis
• Focus on drawing to obs (mesonet)
• Temperature, precipitation, surface wind, dew
  point
• Anisotropic (e.g. land-water contrast)
• Analysis uncertainty
• To include cloud cover
• Will cover CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico,
  Guam

M. Pondeca J. Purser G. DiMego NOAA/GSD - RUC
RTMA Temperature Analysis ( F) (17Z 6/14/07)
RTMA 1-hour Precipitation Analysis (inches) (01z
6/14/07)
RTMA Temperature Analysis Uncertainty ( F) (17Z
6/14/07)
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Land Information System (NASA/NOAA)

• Land states forced by
• Observed precipitation
• Model solar, long wave radiation, cloudiness
• Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) defines skin
  temperature, soil moisture, etc.
• Can be run at 1 km resolution (below)

S. Kumar Jim Geiger C. Peters-Lidard J. Meng K.
Mitchell
Surface (skin) Temperature 50 km area
Washington DC NASA LSM GFS forcing 00 UTC
1 July 21 UTC 1 July
00 UTC 7 PM
03 UTC 10 PM
06 UTC 1 AM
09 UTC 4 AM
12 UTC 7 AM
15 UTC 10 AM
18 UTC 1 PM
21 UTC 4 PM
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Dynamical Statistical Approach

• Bias correction of forecast fields with respect
  to model analysis (e.g. NAM)
• Downscaling Transformation (DT)
• Produces time-dependent differences between
  coarse forecast model (e.g. 12 km NAM) and RTMA
  (5 km)
• Downscaled (local) fcst
• NAM fcst Bias correction DT
• On local grid
• Probabilistic products
• Created from ensemble systems (SREF, GENS)
  through Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach
• Applications for
• Road transportation
• Air transportation management (NEXTGEN)
• Severe weather forecasting

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Marine ApplicationsMulti-Grid Wave Modeling
Higher coastal model resolution
Deep ocean model resolution
Highest model resolution in areas of special
interest
Multi-grid wave model tentative resolutions in
minutes for the parallel implementation in
FY2007-Q4.
Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL
and HWRF
Wave ensemble system application for ship routing
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NCEP Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
(RTOFS)Operational December 2005, upgraded June
2007

• RTOFS provides
• Routine estimation of the ocean state T, S, U,
  V, W, SSH
• Daily 1 week forecast
• 5 km coastal resolution
• Initial and boundary conditions for local model
  applications
• Applications
• Downscaling support for water levels for shipping
• Water quality
• Ecosystem and biogeochemical prediction
• Improved hurricane forecasts
• Improved estimation of the atmosphere state for
  global and regional forecasts
• Collaboration with NOAA/NOS

Chesapeake Bay
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Product Availability

• Three levels of information
• Routinely delivered
• Pointwise, single-valued, downscaled MLF from
  all available guidance on NDGD grid
• Description of forecast uncertainty through
  probability density function (mode 10/90 ile)
• Accompanying post-processed fields
• Meteorologically consistent
• Closest to MLF
• On-demand (via publicly accessible server)
• Individual ensemble member forecasts available
• Prototype NOMADS

MLF Most Likely Forecast
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Whats Needed?

• Written requirements for surface transportation
  to NWS
• Operational (and research) computing resources
• Acceleration of current dynamical-statistical
  efforts
• Outreach and coordination with local users

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Concurrent execution of global and regional
forecast models (Phase 2)
Analysis
Model Region 1
Global/Regional Model Domain

• Real time boundary and initial conditions
• available hourly
• On-demand downscaling to local applications
• Similar to current hurricane runs but run either
• Centrally at OR
• Locally (B.C, I. C. retrieved from on-line data)
• No boundary or initial conditions older than 1
  hour
• Flexibility for over capacity runs (e.g. Fire
  Wx, Hurricane)
• Using climate fraction must be planned
• No impact on remainder of services
• For NEXTGEN A consistent solution from global to
  local with a single
• forecast system and ensembles providing estimate
  of uncertainty

Model Region 2
Local Solution