Hurricane Research in NOAA

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Hurricane Research in NOAA

• Richard W. Spinrad, Ph.D
• Assistant Administrator
• NOAA Research
• March 5, 2007
• 61st IHC Opening Session Panel

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Todays Discussion How NOAA is meeting its
priorities

• Organizational Efforts
• NOAAs Partners
• How NOAA is addressing key Research
  Issues (Intensity and
  Track)
• NOAAs Proposed Actions

• Observing Systems
• Models
• Hurricane Related Hazards
• Hurricanes and Climate

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NOAA is an operational service agency with
innovative research
Update Management Plans for Trust
Resources Support for Community Rebuild Ongoing
Employee Support Repair Impacted NOAA Facilities
Damage Assessment Updated Navigational
Aids Living Marine Resources Assessment Employee
Tracking and Support NOAA Infrastructure
Assessment
Outreach Education Disaster Preparedness Hazard
Assessment Continuity of Operations Planning
Media, Federal, State, and Local Outreach
Communication Weather Monitoring Hurricane
Forecasting Pre-disaster Readiness
Timeframe Ongoing
Timeframe Starts at identification of tropical
depressions
Timeframe Event through 1-2 months following
Timeframe Months to years
These are critical services in case of hurricanes
and other natural and human-induced disasters
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(No Transcript)
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The Hurricane Team

• Team NOAA
• NWS
• NESDIS
• OAR
• NOS
• NMAO
• NMFS
• CIO
• Others

• The Larger Team
• USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunters
• NIST
• Academia
• Private Sector
• Media
• Emergency Managers
• Responders
• Public
• Navy
• Research in support of hurricane forecast
  improvements history of close coordination with
  NASA and NSF

KEY ISSUE Build partnerships with the academic
community to work on research problems they
represent the next generation NOAA work force!
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NOAAs Hurricane Research Priorities

• Primary Goals
• Understand and reduce uncertainty in hurricane
  track and intensity.
• Improve forecasts of hurricane related hazards
• 
  

• Storm Surge
• Inland Flooding
• Wind Damage

• Evaluate the potential role of climate change on
  hurricanes
• Assess the Interactions of hurricanes with
  ecosystems.
• NOAA Goals are consistent with recommendations
  from

• The Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group
  (HIRWG)
• National Science Board (NSB)
• Office of the Federal Coordinator for
  Meteorological Services (OFCM)
• USWRP Implementation Plan

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NOAA Research Issues Hurricane Intensity and
Inland Flood Forecast Problems

• Grand Challenge create forecast system to
  simulate and predict accurately hurricane winds
  and precipitation.
• Models with order of magnitude finer resolution
  required to resolve physical processes
  constraining eyewall structure of winds and rain
• Modest improvement in hurricane intensity
  forecasts in last decade.
• Insufficient skill in predicting heavy rain

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What Progress Has Been Made?
Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC Atlantic
Intensity and Track Forecasts
Intensity
Track
48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5 per year
on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts
have improved about 0.8 per year
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OBSERVING SYSTEMS Need for better observations
to predict sudden intensification changes
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Observing Systems

• Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR)
• Represents a new generation of airborne remote
  sensing instruments designed to actually directly
  estimate surface winds in hurricanes
• Implemented revised SFMR wind retrieval algorithm
  and implemented it on the two NOAA WP-3D aircraft
  and prepared paper documenting the revised
  algorithm (OAR AOP milestone). Worked with AOC
  and AFRES to define and install SFMR for WC-130J
• Continue research to address issues of SFMR
  estimates in shallow water and in the presence of
  rain

Unprecedented comparisons with GPS dropsondes in
CAT5 winds yielded revised SFMR surface wind
algorithm
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Observing Systems

• UAS in Hurricanes -- Aerosonde
• Represents a new generation of airborne in situ
  observing capability instruments designed to
  sample regions of the storm too dangerous for
  traditional manned aircraft
• Working with NASA and Aerosonde collected data in
  Hurricane Ophelia in 2005. Data sets collected
  are being analyzed and show some of the issues
  that need to be addressed in future missions.
• Trying to identify resources to conduct
  Demonstration of UAS in hurricanes in 2007.

Image of Aerosonde launch from NASA Wallops
Flight Facility for the Ophelia flight.
Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Ophelia
and real-time airborne Doppler analysis performed
on a WP-3D (42RF) with the Aerosonde (Aero01)
flight track in blue
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MODELS
Improvement in Intensity Skill

• Better Initialization
• Improved Physics
• Higher Resolution (especially inner core)
• Greater Computer Power

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MODELS
Improvement in Intensity Skill

• Hurricane WRF -- HWRF

HWRF DENNIS
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Hurricane Related Hazards Understand and Predict
Inland Flooding
Obs.
R-Cliper
GFS
a
b
c
GFDL
NAM
d
e
Plot of 72-h accumulated rain (shaded), 12 UTC
17 September to 12 UTC 20 September, 2003 for (a)
Stage IV observations (b) GFS (c) R-Cliper (d)
GFDL (e) NAM.
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Hurricane Related Hazards NOAA Response
Activities
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Hurricanes and Climate Models Capture
Climatology/Variability
..
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FY 2008 Proposed Actions

• Fill key gaps in existing observations of
  hurricane processes that affect intensity
  changes.
• Analyze existing and new observations to
  understand hurricane intensity changes.
• Improve the value of hurricane intensity
  research
• Ensure that predictions are well aligned with
  societys needs
• BOTTOM LINE Since hurricane research is a
  multifaceted problem, collaboration amongst
  NOAAs partners will be needed to achieve all of
  its goals!

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• BACKUP SLIDES

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Hurricanes and NOAAs Mission
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NOAA Hurricane Research for the Future Solutions
Gap Solutions Impact
More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Targeted/adaptive observations NOAA Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrade Advanced data assimilation of remote and in-situ atmosphere and ocean observations Aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar winds Ensembles and HWRF model JHT Results About 12 Increase in Numerical Model Intensity Forecast Skill About 25 Increase in Numerical Model Track Forecast Skill
Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty Ensembles Statistical Guidance JHT Results Training Reduced Overwarning of Coastal Hazards
Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Storms JHT Results Ocean Observations HWRF model (Improved Physics) GPS Dropsonde SFMR Saved Lives/Enhanced Public Safety Improved Track and Intensity Forecasts Improve Other Measures (Marine, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), Aviation)
Higher Resolution Wind Data Aircraft Doppler radar winds Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades (e.g., SATCOM) NEXRAD radar (Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler, WSR-88) winds Improved Intensity and Track Forecasts Improved Storm Physics Improved Storm-Surge Forecast Improved QPF
More Precise Position of Circulation Center Satellite/Aircraft Remote Sensing Reduced Track Error
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NOAA Hurricane Products and Activities

• Operational Hurricane Products
• Joint Hurricane Test Bed
• Previous Hurricane Season Critical Review
• Hurricane model development
• Experimental Products
• Hurricane Awareness Tours
• Seasonal Outlook
• Predicting Impacts (e.g. storm surge)
• WFO/RFC Special Products and Outreach

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Hurricane Research Priorities

• Assess rapid changes in hurricane intensity via
  greater understanding of storm structure, oceanic
  heat content, and interaction with the external
  environment
• Reduce the uncertainty associated with where
  and when hurricanes will make landfall.
• Understand and assess hurricane impacts such as
  storm surge, rainfall, and inland flooding.
• Evaluating new approaches to obtain key
  observations to improve forecast.
• Economic and social impact of hurricanes and
  mitigation measures.
• Interactions of hurricanes with ecosystems.
• Understanding the relationship between
  hurricanes and climate.

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NOAA Activities Supporting Hurricane Science

• Weather Forecasts and Warnings underlying
  applied research
• Climate analysis and forecasting
• Ecosystems research and assessment
• Commerce and Transportation research, analysis,
  and navigation

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• Continue work to improve response to warnings
• Continue to improve hurricane intensity and storm
  surge models
• External (to NOAA) Hurricane Intensity Working
  Group to provide report to NOAA by this summer
• Update NOAA disaster response plans to include
  necessary ecosystem assessments
• Strengthen connections between HAZMAT and HAB
  responses and large-scale environmental models

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Socioeconomic Impacts Coastal Regions
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MODELS
Improvement in Intensity Skill
MM5 forecasted rainrate (mm h-1) in Rita at 1115
UTC 22 September using 1.67-km (left) and 5-km
(right) grid resolution. The model was
initialized at 0000 UTC 20 September using the
NOGAPS forecast fields as lateral boundary
condition. The 1.67-km forecast shows a
primary and secondary eyewalls as observed,
whereas 5-km does not.
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Observing Systems
Inflow and shallow wind max to West
Outflow and deep wind max to East

• Doppler analyses from 1st W-E leg during Katrina
  landfall showing asymmetry in horizontal and
  vertical wind distribution

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Ecosystem/Fisheries Issues from Katrina

• Interagency coordination of toxics/pathogens
  sampling and public release of findings EPA,
  FDA, USGS, US Army Corps
• Rebuilding Gulf fisheries needs to be on a
  sustainable basis (many fisheries were
  overcapitalized before Katrina and Rita)
• Rebuilding fisheries must be done within existing
  Regional Institutions (Gulf States Marine Fishery
  Commission, Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management
  Council, State Agencies, other collaborative
  groups)
• Sea Grant provides recovery assistance in
  Katrinas aftermath
• Will build upon long standing partnerships for
  wetlands restoration (CWPPRA in LA), similar
  governance model could be applied to MS, AL, TX,
  and FL

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Research Recommendations Hurricane Isabel
NOAA-Wide Assessment
RECOMMENDATIONS

• More than half have been completed

• Storm surge
• coordinate NOAA-wide storm surge effort to move
  toward next generation surge models
• develop a clear, understandable definitions for
  storm surge, storm tide, etc. User needs
• Observations
• improved data availability (ensuring Web
  availability of information, coordinated NOAA web
  presence)
• "harden" NOAA data sources (Buoys, surface
  observing sites, tide gages) Provide backup power
  to key ASOS, tide gages, and buoys
• Education
• leverage cross-NOAA efforts for education and
  outreach (NOS/OAR/NWS)

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Socioeconomic Impacts
Looking for Evidence of Potential Movement of
Toxics Pathogens
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Socioeconomic ImpactsCommerce and Transportation

• Navigation Response Teams, NOAA ships (Nancy
  Foster and Thomas Jefferson) and contract vessels
  surveyed rivers and ports to ensure waterways
  were clear of hazards
• Surveys allowed critical ports and harbors to
  open to commercial and emergency vessel traffic
  sooner

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Socio-Economic Assessments

• Re-evaluate up-to-date, community-level
  information for
• measuring impacts on
• Local and regional socioeconomic conditions
• Local and regional demographic trends
• Nature and extent of local and regional
  involvement in fishing, oil/gas, tourism, other
  industries
• Social and economic relationships between Gulf
  communities
• Use, and by extension availability, of inshore,
  near-shore, and offshore marine resources for
  commercial and recreational purposes
• Fishing and marine-specific service and physical
  infrastructure
• Socio-cultural aspects of life in Gulf
  communities
• Conducting surveys to assess losses of
  infrastructure in affected communities

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Hurricane Research

• Research Thrusts
• INTENSITY
• Improve Statistical Intensity Models - SHIPS and
  Rapid Intensity
• Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) - provide
  atmospheric and oceanic observations for HWRF
  coupled model initialization and evaluation over
  storm life cycle.
• Improve observations to estimate current storm
  intensity and surface wind structure - SFMR,
  airborne Doppler radar, UAS
• Improve communications and applications to
  quality control and integrate new observations
  for transition to NWS
• Provide improved physical parameterization for
  boundary layer processes for operational models

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Hurricane Research

• New Research Thrusts (continued)
• TRACK
• Develop improved sampling strategies through
  targeting
• Develop techniques to test observing system
  strategies
• IMPACTS
• Develop metrics to evaluate TC rainfall
  prediction from models with observations and
  simple statistical models
• Provide surface wind fields for storm surge and
  wave model development
• SEASONAL
• Evaluate multi-decadel TC cycle and predictability

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Transition to Operations

• Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)
• Completed second cycle of transitions in 2005
  AOML/HRD involved with 6 projects
• 5 new projects starting in 2005 for third cycle
  of transitions
• Instrumentation/Observations
• Develop and evaluate SFMR for surface wind
  estimation - on NOAA WP-3Ds and begun transition
  to AFRC WC-130
• Transition airborne Doppler technology to
  determine 3-D wind structure in TC inner core for
  use in operational model initialization and
  forecast guidance - WP-3D G-IV
• Evaluation of Aerosonde UAS for TC reconnaissance
• Transition real-time QC observations to
  operations via high-speed SATCOM in conjunction
  with AOC and NESDIS
• Understanding
• Improved drag coefficient for high wind regimes
  in numerical models
• Eyewall replacement cycle

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Hurricane Research IssueHurricane Intensity
Forecasting A Major Science Challenge

• Hurricane intensity is a difficult observational,
  scientific, modeling, and forecasting challenge
• Many gaps and unknowns
• Improvements are costly
• Hurricane intensity is influenced primarily by
  small-scale (lt 10 km) processes
• whereas hurricane track is influenced primarily
  by larger scale processes
• Inherent difficulty and resource constraints have
  limited improvements in intensity forecasts

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Observing Systems Polar Orbiting Satellites
NOAA

• Orbits called polar orbiting as the satellite
  pass over the Earth almost from pole to pole
• Polar orbiting satellites are generally
  300-1000 miles (500-1600 km) above the surface
• Due to the low altitude, these satellites can
  carry microwave instruments with useful
  resolution for tropical cyclone data

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Attack Hurricane Intensity and Rain Forecasts

• Compelling reasons WHY NOW is time for
  initiative
• Research models available at 1-2 km that
  reproduce necessary characteristics of hurricane
  wind and rain (thanks to university community and
  WRF).

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Where are we at?

• This is a Major Undertaking (No Quick Fix) that
  requires NOAA to work closely with Universities
  (UCAR, Regional Associations) and other Federal
  Agencies (DOD, NASA, NSF), and to provide
  leadership to
• Improve understanding of physical processes that
  lead to intensity and structure change in
  hurricanes through better use of models and
  observations
• Develop and test tools and technologies needed
  for an integrated hurricane forecasting system
  that is based on state-of-the-art numerical
  models, data assimilation, and observations
• Develop and test new strategies for better
  warnings of when and where damaging winds and
  other impacts will occur, enabling emergency
  planners to provide for an appropriate level of
  preparedness
• Improve understanding of relationship of changes
  in hurricane characteristics to long term climate
  change
• Develop next generation of hurricane researchers
  and forecasters

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• Intensity (continued)
• 3-D modeling of TC

GFDL operational ocean-atmosphere coupled model
system
http//www.gfdl.noaa.gov/products/vis/gallery/hurr
icanes/index.html
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• WITH WHAT?
• Satellite Tools
• GOES Visible Rapid Scan Imagery
• convective evolution
• eye structure
• SSM/I and TRMM
• Rainfall
• wind speed
• Scatterometry (QuickSCAT, ERS-2)
• wind fields
• Altimerty
• OHC

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• Opportunities
• USWRP
• U. S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is a
  4-agency (NOAA, NSF, ONR, and NASA) effort
  focused on what the meteorological research
  community can contribute to the reduction in
  disastrous impacts on the nation.
• Current USWRP Hurricane Landfall Goals
• Reduce landfall track and intensity forecast
  errors by 20
• Increase warning lead time to and beyond 24 h and
  95 confidence without increasing present 3 to 1
  overwarning
• Make skillful (compared to persistence) forecasts
  of gale- and hurricane-force radii out to 48 h
  with 95 confidence and
• Extend quantitative precipitation forecasts to 3
  days and improve skill of day-3 forecasts to
  improve inland flooding forecasts.
• (derived from Implementation Plan for Hurricane
  Landfall)

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Observing Systems

• Surface Wind Analysis --
• Develop an integrated tropical cyclone observing
  system where wind measurements from a variety of
  observation platforms are used to develop an
  objective analysis of distribution of wind speeds
  in a hurricane. Product designed to improve
  understanding of extent and strength of wind
  field, and to improve assessment of hurricane
  intensity.
• Experimental "snapshot" products are provided in
  image and gridded form for research purposes and
  are especially useful for storm surge and wave
  forecasting applications.

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Observing Systems Ocean Surface Vector Winds
QuikScat detail Katrina (2005)
Windsat detail Isabel (2003)
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Observing Systems

• Airborne Doppler Radar
• 2 WP-3D
• Supports operational hurricane modeling
  objectives of NCEP
• In 2005 and 2006 demonstrated real-time QC,
  analysis and transmission of data via SATCOM
• In 2007 improve SATCOM speed and test and
  evaluate assimilation

http//www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/doppler.h
tml
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Hurricane Related Hazards Forecasting the
Response of Coastal Ecosystems to
Persistent Forcing and Extreme Events
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Hurricanes and Climate Modeling of Water Mass
Movements
CODE Drifter
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Wetlands Inundation
USGS estimates 118 square miles of wetlands were
lost due to Hurricane Katrina
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Pecan Island Terrace ProjectPre Post 2005
Hurricanes

• Example of an ecosystem project to protect
  wetlands and shoreline in western LA.
• Terrace project reduces wave fetch and shoreline
  erosion. Additional benefits include improved
  fish habitat improved water quality.
• NOAA designed managed the construction of 28
  projects since 1995.
• To date NOAA analyzed 9 large-scale projects.
  All 9 projects performed as designed and 8 of
  the 9 projects suffered minimal damage.

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NOAA Fishing Community Profiles (334
communities, 75 counties, in five states)
Socio-Economics Survey
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NOAAs Principles in Long-Term Gulf Fisheries
Rebuilding

• Short-term financial assistance and clean up
  activities including mapping and removal of
  marine debris,
• Restoring infrastructure needed to sustain
  fisheries,
• Developing and funding capacity reduction and
  other measures to improve conservation management
  for sustainable Gulf fisheries,
• Recovering essential fisheries (wetlands)
  habitat and building more storm-resilient coastal
  communities

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Hurricanes and Climate Sea-Level Rise and
Inundation