Incorporating Climate into a DecisionSupport Tool

1
Incorporating Climate into a Decision-Support
Tool for Specialized Agriculture Jenni van
Ravensway, Julie Winkler, Jeanne Bisanz, Krerk
Piromsopa, Galina Guentchev, Johnathan Clark,
Haryono Prawiranata, Hai Kyung Min, Ryan Torre,
Jeffrey Andresen, Costanza Zavalloni, J. Roy
Black1 Department of Geography, Michigan State
University, East Lansing, MI 1Department of
Agricultural Economics, Michigan State
University, East Lansing, MI
INTRODUCTION
A WEB-BASED TOOL SUITE
One objective of the Pileus Project is to better
understand the potential impacts of climate
variability and change on specialized agriculture
in the Great Lakes region. The tart (sour)
cherry industry is the primary focus, as all
major aspects of the industry and the value chain
are located within a small geographic area.
Consequently, this commodity is a useful model
system and provides a unique opportunity to link
expertise in agricultural production, economics,
and climatology.
The web-based tool suite for specialized
agriculture consists of four separate tools 1) a
historical climate tool that provides users with
access to over 50 years of observations for
selected stations in the Great Lakes region, 2) a
future climate tool that allows users to evaluate
how climate may change in the future, 3) a tart
cherry development and production tool that
employs phenological and yield models to evaluate
climate impacts, and 4) a tart cherry investment
tool that is used to calculate average annualized
net returns. All of the tools have a uniform
look in order to facilitate learning and
usability. In addition, each tool is accompanied
by a set of user cases that illustrate how the
tool may be used by decision makers. Brief,
illustrated descriptions of the methods used to
develop the tool are also provided.
Figure 1. Home page of Pileus Project web-based
tools.
The specific goals are to 1) identify, with the
assistance of stakeholders, the information
needed in decision making that is influenced by
climate, 2) create quantitative models to
simulate the impact of climate, and 3) develop
web-based decision support tools for risk
management.
FUTURE CLIMATE TOOL
The Future Climate Tool allows users to evaluate
how climate may change in the future. Simulations
from four GCMs (CCSM1.2, CGCM2, ECHAM4, HadCM3)
driven with two emissions scenarios (A2, B2) were
downscaled for 15 locations in the Great Lakes
region, using multiple downscaling methods. The
resulting daily temperature and precipitation
scenarios were converted to stakeholder-relevant
indices and threshold variables (such as the date
of last spring frost and growing degree day
accumulation).  The graphical output displays the
projections from the entire ensemble of
scenarios. The range of projected changes is a
proxy indicator of the degree of uncertainty
surrounding the projections. The tool displays
the projected change (or delta) in the median
value of the indices and threshold variables.
Medians were calculated for 20-year periods, and
the deltas are the difference between a future
period and a control (1990-2009) period. Users
are provided with four different display options.
The first displays the values for each index or
threshold variable for an observed reference
period defined as 1981-2000. The second display
type allows the user to compare the scenario
ensembles of the projected change in the median
value for early century (defined as 2010-2029),
mid-century (defined as 2040-2059), and a
late-century (defined as 2080-2099) periods. The
third display shows the differences between the
scenarios developed using the A2 and B2 emission
scenarios. Finally, the fourth display type
illustrates the projected change in the median
value for 20-year overlapping decades beginning
with 1990-2009 and continuing to 2080-2099.
Below are example displays for one index, annual
growing degree day accumulation (base 41F).
Figure 3 Future scenarios input interface.
REFERENCE CLIMATE
A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS
The A2 and B2 scenarios of the projected change
in annual growing degree accumulation are similar
for the early- and mid-century period, but for
the late-century period the A2 scenarios
generally suggest a larger projected change.
This example shows the number of growing degree
days for each year from 1981-2000. Users can
evaluate the observed interannual variation. The
median value for the 20-year reference period is
provided in the box on the right-hand side of the
display. The observed median is a reference point
for evaluating the projected changes from the
scenario ensembles.
Figure 4. Reference climate display for annual
growing degree days (base 41F).
Figure 6. Comparison of A2 and B2 emissions
scenarios.
EARLY-CENTURY, MID-CENTURY, AND LATE-CENTURY
SCENARIOS
TREND
In this example, the scenario ensembles for the
20-year early-, mid-, and late-century periods
display considerable uncertainty. All scenarios
suggest an increase in annual growing degree day
accumulation, although the magnitude of the
projected change differs, with greater
uncertainty for the late-century period.
This display shows the projected trend in annual
growing degree accumulation for overlapping
20-year periods and the uncertainty surrounding
the trend. A gradual increase in heat
accumulation is suggested, although the
uncertainty range increases with time.
Figure 7. Example display of the trend in the
projected change of the median value for 20-year
overlapping periods.
Figure 5. Display of projected changes for
20-year early-, mid-, and late-century periods.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ONGOING ACTIVITIES
The Pileus Project is funded by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, project number
R83081401-0. This poster has not been subjected
to peer review by this agency. The authors are
solely responsible for any errors or omissions.
We thank John Furlow and Jordan West, our EPA
project managers, for their help and guidance. We
also thank the many stakeholders who have
provided background information, data, and shared
their invaluable experience with us.
The tools are accompanied by user cases and an
audiovisual interpretation guide demonstrating
how stakeholders can incorporate the tools into
their decision-making process. For the future
climate tool, the interpretation guides help
users to better understand the uncertainty
surrounding projected future climate and
recognize that climate scenarios should not be
considered deterministic projections of the
future but rather a series of plausible outcomes.
In the initial tool development, stakeholder
input was received regarding the type of climate
indices and threshold variables to include in the
tool and the readability of the displays.
Ongoing stakeholder input is being sought to
improve the usability of the tools and to
critique the interpretation guides and user
cases.