Developing Tools for Understanding and Communicating Drought

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Developing Tools for Understanding and
Communicating Drought
Deke Arndt Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma
Climatological Survey
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Two Things I Can Guarantee

• This drought will end
• There will be another drought

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About the Oklahoma Climate Survey

• Established 1980
• Mandated to collect and disseminate useful
  weather and climate information
• OCS is also the custodian of the Oklahoma Mesonet
• For drought, we serve data and expertise to the
  Oklahoma Water Resources Board
• The OWRB is the lead drought-monitoring agency in
  the state. They report directly to the Gov.

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About Oklahoma

• Response-based drought plan
• ?
• Monitoring is critical

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About Drought

• Climate information maps strongly to the
  financial services sector
• Drought is more like baseball
• There are a lot of numbers, statistics and
  metrics
• It means more because I went through it with my
  Dad.

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A Tale of Two Droughts
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Drought 1 1935
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Drought 2 1996
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Lessons Drought 1

• The power of mitigation

CD2 Annual Precip
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Lessons Drought 2

• We didn't speak to each other very well
• Climatologists spent days compiling reports
• Stuff happened slowly

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Deke's Drought-Monitoring Principles

• Drought is a social phenomenon
• Drought is relative in time, space application
• Because drought is inextricably tied to society,
  a long-term reference is necessary
• New and emerging observational datasets should be
  explored
• Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a
  multi-faceted assessment
• Deliver drought information, not just drought data

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Mesonet Drought Monitoring

• Tables and graphics provide decision-makers with
  a number of data sources and choices (7 days per
  week)?
• Designed to help non-scientists better
  assimilate complex information using past
  experiences

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Daily Drought Monitoring
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Daily Drought Monitoring
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Fire Danger Model Burning Index
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Time/Depth Scales of Soil Moisture
Fractional Water Index at 75 cm Ending 10/12/03
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Daily Drought Monitoring

• Basic statistics for a traditional view of
  precipitation during any season
• Total Precipitation
• Departure from Normal Precipitation
• Percent of Normal Precipitation

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Daily Drought Monitoring

• These columns use historical archives to put
  this season's total in perspective
• Driest Since and Wettest Since refer to
  recent history (which is more memorable)?
• Rankings indicate how this season fits into
  history

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Daily Drought Monitoring
Index values help specific users see the subtext
of the current episode Implications FWI
agriculture KBDI fire management SPI the
unusualness of a current event
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Texas Early Last Week

• Updated daily at OCS.
• Not ready for prime time
• Will be handed off in a few months to the
  Southern Regional Climate Center

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Water Issues

• Water is a contentious issue
• Texas has more people than Oklahoma

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How does it fit in?
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South-Central Texas
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Annual Precipitation
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Spring Precip TX-CD7
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Summer Precip TX-CD7
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TX CD7 Temperature
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TX CD3 Annual Temp
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Climate Time Series

• Available on demand (give me a call)?
• I am confident these will be more accessible in
  the not-too-distant future

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Thank You for Your Time

• Deke Arndt
• Oklahoma Climatological Survey
• 405-325-2541
• darndt_at_ou.edu