Understanding the Threats Discovering the Opportunities

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Understanding the Threats Discovering the
Opportunities

• What is Climate Change?
• What does it mean for businesses in the South
  West?
• What are our own impacts on Climate?
• How might we go about addressing our impacts?
• What opportunities does Climate Change offer our
  businesses?

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• Part of DEFRAs Climate Change Communications
  initiative

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• Being delivered through specialist regional
  environmental organisation Horizon South West

in partnership with the CIM and the South West
Climate Change Impacts Partnership
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• An opportunity for marketers in the South West
  to learn more about the effects of climate change
  and to contribute to the debate
• and for environmental professionals to learn
  more about communicating climate change.

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• "This summer was the longest continuous period
  of hot weather experienced in this country since
  records began." 
• "Figures based on the central England
  temperature records that date back 350 years,
  show that the average temperature from May to
  September was 16.2C.  This is two degrees higher
  than the average for this time of year.
• Observer 15 October 2006

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• We should be very, very scared of global warming
  . the scientific debate is over.
• David Milliband

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Stern conclusions

• "Climate change is the greatest market failure
  the world has ever seen, and it interacts with
  other market imperfections.

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Stern conclusions

• Three elements of policy are required for an
  effective global response
• price carbon through tax, trading or regulation
• implement policy to support innovation and the
  deployment of low-carbon technologies
• act to remove barriers to energy efficiency, and
  to inform, educate and persuade individuals about
  what they can do to respond to climate change.

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Climate Change Sustainability

• development that meets the needs of the present
  without compromising the ability of future
  generations to meet their own needs."
  Bruntland

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The Triple Bottom Line

• People
• Planet
• Prosperity

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• An introduction to climate change and its impacts
  on the South West
• Sarah Hendel-Blackford
• SWCCIP Manager

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• What is climate change?
• Global changes, local impacts
• SWCCIP work and future predictions

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The Greenhouse Effect
CO2
H2O
N2O
H2O
CH4
33oC
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Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
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Natural Factors cannot explain recent warming
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Observed Model simulation
Temperature change ºC
1850 1900
1950 2000
Source Hadley Centre for ClimatePredication and
Research
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• Recent warming can be simulated when manmade
  factors are included

1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Observed Model simulation
Temperature change ºC
1850 1900
1950 2000
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
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Global warming over next 40 years does not depend
on emissions scenarios
High emissions Medium-high Medium-low Low
emissions
Annual-mean temperature rise, deg C
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
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• Is there a solution?
• MITIGATE the cause
• Reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. C02
  through energy efficiency, development of
  renewables
• ADAPT to the effects
• Prepare for challenges of climate change more
  extreme events, change business practice, learn
  from recent experience

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• Regional Response
• SWCCIPs mission is to investigate, inform and
  advise on the impacts of climate change in SW
  England
• Established 2001 Chaired by Environment Agency
  and Government Office South West, partnership
  between key regional stakeholders
• Emphasis on Adaptation

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2080 Changes for the South West
Sea-level 20-80cm
rise Summer Warmer 2 to
5.5ºC, drier by 25 to 55 Winter
Milder by 1.5 to 3.5ºC, wetter by 10 to
30, snowfall decrease by 70 to 90
Source WTI 2003, UKCIP
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observations Medium-High emissions
Temperature change, C
European 2003 summer temperatures could be normal
by 2040s, cool by 2060s
Source Peter Stott, Hadley Centre
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Questions

• SWCCIP Sector Groups
• Agriculture
• Biodiversity
• 
  Housing Construction

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• SWCCIP Sector Groups
• Local Government Tourism
  Utilities

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• If you think youre too small to make a
  difference, try going to bed with a mosquito
• What you can do
• Find out more www.oursouthwest.com/climate
• Raise awareness and plan for future changes
• Get involved! Case studies?
• sarah.hendel-blackford_at_environment-agency.gov.uk

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Reflection
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Climate Change Farm
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Climate Change Risk Assessment Tool
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A Changing Climate for Business
Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
(BACLIAT)
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Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
(BACLIAT)

• Issues to consider
• Time
• Location
• Sector
• Business areas

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Summary of expected climate changes in the UK

• Annual / seasonal averages
• Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too)
• Milder, wetter winters
• Rising sea levels
• Extremes
• More very hot days
• More intense downpours of rain
• Shorter return periods for high water levels at
  coast
• Uncertain changes in storms possible increase
  in winter

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Considering climate impacts on business areas

• markets
• logistics
• process
• people
• premises
• finance
• management responses

climate change provides both challenge and
opportunity
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Markets changing demand for goods and services

• tourism - Med. is too hot so visit UK
• food drink - summer preferences
• al fresco pavement cafes 24/7
• building design - passive cooling,
• sustainable construction
• environmental technology monitoring and
  technical fixes
• cars etc cooling as standard
• Health- new diseases, new technologies
• Leisure - demand for parks, gardens, heritage
• other global impacts on markets???

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Logistics vulnerability of supply chain,
utilities, transport infrastructure

• disruption of utilities - power, water, drainage
• disruption of transport road ,rail, sea, air
• vulnerability of raw materials production
• arising from
• flooding coastal, riverine, urban
• drought,
• wind and storm damage,
• subsidence and heave,
• landslip,
• excess temperatures

just in time systems increase vulnerability for
manufacturing retail
extreme events will set most new performance
standards
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Process impacts on production processes and
service delivery

• Agriculture -crops
• Manufacture -temperature
• nature conservation -habitats
• Heritage - buildings and gardens
• food and drink - temp. control
• Waste - health hazards
• Construction - site conditions
• Office - summer environment
• Leisure - impacts on beaches, amenities

extreme events will set most new performance
standards
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People implications for workforce, customers and
changing lifestyles

• new residential locations preferred
• trend to north
• retreat from urban locations
• changed travel to work patterns
• more pedestrian/cycle journeys
• poor working environment
• external construction, agriculture
• internal offices in summer
• more complaint generally
• siestas??
• reputation as employer
• attract and retain high quality staff

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Premises impacts on building design,
construction, maintenance facilities management

• all projects use future not historic climate data
• building fabric and structure vulnerable to wind,
  rain, storm, subsidence
• internal environment
• less winter heating required
• more summer cooling required but avoid air
  conditioning
• existing buildings
• retrofit represents a major challenge
• especially low-energy cooling in housing
• sustainable construction
• link CC adaptation and mitigation agendas

very dependent on location too
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Management implications financial implications
for investment, insurance, reputation

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Workshop activity briefing

• Select one business sector and identify the
  threats
• and opportunities of climate impacts
• on each business area below

Business sector Construction Manufacturing Servic
e sector Leisure/tourism Retail Food drink
Business areas Markets Logistics Process People P
remises

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• Summary of expected climate changes in the UK
• Annual / seasonal averages
• Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too)
• Milder, wetter winters
• Rising sea levels
• Extremes
• More very hot days
• More intense downpours of rain
• Shorter return periods for high water levels at
  coast
• Uncertain changes in storms possible increase
  in winter

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A Changing Climate for Business
Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
(BACLIAT)
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Reflection
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Climate Change and Marketings 4 Ps
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The Two-Way Street
Marketing activities
Climate change
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Marketing activities
Climate change

• Markets
• decreased or disappearing demand for present
  range of good services
• competitors position enhanced by changing
  climate
• new markets created for substitute or new
  products and services
• Distribution channels
• vulnerability of transport delivery systems

• Product/service life cycle processes
  development
• vulnerability or scarcity of supplies of raw
  materials
• disruption to utilities
• business disruption due to weather effects
• People
• new customer requirements expectations

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Market Behaviour

• Milder winters threaten Ribena production but
  longer summers are good news for strawberry
  growers
• As temperatures rise, lemonade sales initially go
  up, but then fall again when it gets really
  hotLong range weather uncertainty affects
  production planning
• Banana sales slump when it is hot and when it is
  cold
• Long summers delay purchasing of autumn / winter
  clothing collections
• Skiing days in Scotland down by 80
• Too hot to shop

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Marketing activities
Climate change

• Product/service life cycles and development
• raw material extraction
• centralised production
• manufacturing processes
• packaging
• usable life energy use
• disposal

• Business models
• supply chains
• Markets
• national or global spread
• Distribution channels
• product/service miles
• forms of distribution

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Product

• Ensuring new product development processes are
  informed by the companys climate change
  objectives.
• Understanding the nature of customer interest in
  climate change issues, and the potential market
  for climate change -focused products and
  services.
• Understanding the social and environmental
  impacts of your products throughout their
  life-cycle.
• Identifying opportunities to generate products in
  partnership with not-for-profit organisations or
  government agencies.

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Raw materials

• Furniture built from tropical hardwoods vs
  sustainably managed forests
• Use of virgin materials like aluminium which have
  higher embodied energy than recycled

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Product/service provision

• Carbon emissions from manufacturing processes
• Energy use in service industries
• keeping equipment switched on

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Packaging

• Fit for purpose?
• Materials and weights

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Place

• Attracting customers through new distribution
  channels (e.g. Internet), which minimise social
  and environmental impacts.
• Identifying markets in which your products will
  promote social inclusion and economic
  regeneration.

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Product/service miles

• Local seasonal produce vs green beans from Kenya
• Video conferencing vs national and international
  travel for meetings

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Price

• Exploring the opportunity to link a proportion of
  your products prices to a relevant social or
  environmental cause (i.e. a cause-related
  marketing approach).
• Identifying opportunities to increase margins
  and/or improve price competitiveness through
  environmental efficiencies.
• Identifying any price premium that can be
  captured through the low carbon or sustainability
  attributes of your products.
• Factoring the full social and environmental costs
  of your products into the price.

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Carbon Labelling

• White goods
• Cars
• Houses..
• Whats next?

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Promotion

• Working closely with a variety of stakeholders to
  understand the perceptions and expectations of
  your business across society.
• Emphasising the low carbon attributes of your
  products in promotions.
• Examining the strength of existing claims
  regarding the social and environmental attributes
  of your products.
• Ensuring marketing materials are in line with the
  social and environmental performance of your
  company.
• Developing adequate control procedures to
  identify and inform consumers of possible product
  risks.

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Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change
impacts
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The Two-Way Street
Mitigation reducing the causes of
climate change
Marketing activities
Climate change
Adaptation responding to the
physical impacts
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The Two-Way Street
Mitigate climate changing impacts

• ....and explain it to your customers

Marketing activities
Climate change
Adapt opportunistically to climate change impacts
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Communicating Climate Change
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KNOW THINE ENEMY
Well, climate change is clearly a left wing
liberal conspiracy that will lead to floods of
asylum seekers pouring into Britain, causing
house prices to plummet and turning us all into
sodomites!
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Carbon Trust
WE ARE ALL RESPONSIBLE!
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• Conclusions
• Rapid evolution
• More activism than formal stuff
• Confusion over attitudes vs. behaviour
• Attitudes are changing
• NGOs and corporates still leading the way
• Great changes afoot

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Audiences
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• The Financial Times - 63 climate change articles
  and had an average Fear/Hope rating of 2.7
• Independent - with 60 articles and a pessimistic
  outlook
• The Sun (3 million readers)- just four (hugely
  negative) articles.

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Fear is winning gt 59 of stories are negative
gt 15 of stories are balanced gt 25 of stories
are positive The Bells of New Orleans Toll
for the Whole Planet Independent on Sunday
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• People are fed up with the unfulfilled fear
  message

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National Research

• Most people in the UK think that climate change
• is confusing they can't see how it relates to
  them
• won't affect them personally
• is a problem for the future, not now and
• can't be affected by their individual actions,
  because the problem is so big.

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National Research
How concerned are you about the impact of Climate
Change in the UK?
How much influence do you think can have on
limiting Climate Change?
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THE BIG DIVIDE
Actions affecting lifestyle
Easy actions
Energy saving in home
Radical change of car use
Changing little habits
Reducing plane flights
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Values Modes Who are we talking to?

• 21 Settlers
• Security/sustenance driven, backward looking,
  yesterday was better
• 44 Prospectors
• Esteem/outer-directed needs, in the now,
  fashion, status, success
• 35 Pioneers
• Inner-directed needs, ethical, self-exploration,
  look forwards, like change and discovery

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Promoting Photovoltaics

• Settlers
• Prospectors
• Pioneers

ACTION Someone else
SOLUTION Id rather not change
INCENTIVE Queen, council, neighbour
normal
We should organise
Add value, latest thing/trend
If fashionable
Good for planet Ethical imperative Lets do it!
Network of interesting people doing it for a good
cause
Ill do it myself
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Audience rules

• Target specific groups
• Awareness, attitude change or behaviour change?
• Understand them
• market research

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MESSAGES
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• Blowing Away Myths
• Challenging habits of climate change
  communication
• Dont rely on concern about childrens future or
  human survival instincts

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• Blowing Away Myths
• Challenging habits of climate change
  communication
• Dont create fear without agency

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• Blowing Away Myths
• Challenging habits of climate change
  communication
• Dont attack or criticise home or family

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• Blowing Away Myths
• Forget the climate change detractors

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• Blowing Away Myths
• There is no rational man

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• Blowing Away Myths
• Information cant work alone

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• A New Way of Thinking
• Do link climate change mitigation to positive
  desires/aspirations

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• A New Way of Thinking
• Beware the impacts of cognitive dissonance

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• Linking Policy Communications
• Everyone must use a clear and consistent
  explanation of climate change

Climate Change
GreenhouseEffect
Global Warming
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Audience Rules Make climate change a home not
away issue
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• Create a trusted, credible, recognised voice on
  climate change

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• Raise the status of climate change mitigation
  behaviours

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• Message Rules
• Set a central message
• Tailor the message to different audiences
• Engage your audiences emotions
• 10 WORDS OR LESS

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Channels
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200 million on advertising Next to nothing
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Channels

• Direct marketing - direct mail/e-mail/cold
  calling
• New technology - SMS etc
• Education channels (schools, higher and further
  education)
• Sponsorships
• Advertising
• Radio
• TV
• Press
• Online
• 6. Editorial / Press releases
• Specialist and mainstream
• 7. Viral (e-mails etc)
• 8. Exhibitions
• Celebrity endorsements
• Online (web and web-log)

• 11. PR Stunts
• Business communications
• Networks/forums/conferences
• Entertainment media (product placement)
• Road shows
• Cultural events
• Speeches
• Consultations/ dialogue
• Competitions
• Anniversaries
• TV programmes
• Loyalty/coupons - some type of offer
• Reports, brochures, newsletters etc
• Awards

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Free Channels

• News, Features and Listings (print, radio,
  electronic)
• Broadcast
• Lifestyle
• Local, community and regional media outlets

Paid Channels

• Branding
• Collateral
• Advertising magazines, commercial TV, radio,
  local print
• Sponsorships

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Management and measurement
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• Government policy and communications on climate
  change must be consistent

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• The communications must be sustained over time

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• Better to light a candle than to curse the
  darkness
• Old Chinese Proverb

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Measurement

• Qualitative research (focus groups)
• Quantitative analysis (surveys, stats and press
  clipping)
• Impact and influence (the objective!)
• Interest and follow-up (questions)

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If you remember

• Be positive
• Be targeted
• Be creative

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Effective Communication?What do you think?
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• Sir Terry Leahy pledged in January to
• Carbon footprint Tesco products
• Halve the price of energy-efficient light bulbs.
• Reduce the carbon footprint of new existing
  stores and distribution centres by 50 by 2020.
• Restrict air transport to less than 1 per cent of
  products and put an aeroplane symbol on all
  air-freighted products in store.

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Marks Spencer launches "Plan A"- 200m
'eco-plan' CLIMATE CHANGE - making our
operations in UK and Republic of Ireland carbon
neutral by 2012.
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Virgin profits to renewable energy
  Sir Richard Branson has pledged 3bn to fight
global warming, comprising all profits from his
travel firms including airline VirginAtlantic
and Virgin Trains over the next 10 years.
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Climate Care
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Reflection
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Any questions?
Carole Bond 01225 852 533 carole_at_carbon-data.co.
uk

• Sandra Clarke 01451 832 206
• sandra_at_smadar.co.uk

Sarah Hendel-Blackford 01392 442125 sarah.hendel-
blackford_at_environment-agency.gov.uk