Managing Drought: A Roadmap for Change in the United States

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Managing Drought A Roadmap for Change in the
United States
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, Director National Drought
Mitigation Center School of Natural
Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln U.S.A.
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Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Vulnerable
Environments A Roadmap for Change in the U.S.

• Report online at
• http//www.geosociety.org/

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The Cycle of Disaster Management
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds
resilience.
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the
causes.
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Components of Drought Risk Management
Hazard
Risk
Vulnerability
x

(natural event)
(social factors)
Meteorological Drought
What factors are affecting vulnerability?
Are there trends in exposure?
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What is drought?

• A deficiency of precipitation from expected or
  normal that extends over a season or longer
  period of time and results in water supply that
  is insufficient to meet the needs of human
  activities and the environment.
• Simply stated, its when demand exceeds supply
  but . . . . .

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1930s
1950s
1987-present

• Key observations
• Droughtnormal part of climate
• Average annual spatial extent 15
• Peak spatial extent 65
• Year-to-year variability
• Recent pattern over two decades

Area Affected
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Previous Calls for Action

• General Accounting Office
• Western Governors Association
• National Academy of Sciences
• Great Lakes Commission
• American Meteorological Society
• Interstate Council on Water Policy
• National Drought Policy Commission

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National Drought Policy Commission

• Report to Congress in 2000 in response to the
  National Drought Policy Act of 1998.
• Recommended creating a National Drought Policy.
• National Drought Preparedness Act 2001, 2003,
  2005.

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Why the sense of urgency?

• Multiple severe droughts since 1996 have had
  severe impacts and have raised concern about
  increasing vulnerability.
• U.S. population is growing rapidly, especially in
  the water-short western states and the southeast.
• Water demand is increasing dramatically,
  conflicts between water users are increasing.

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21
28
30
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66
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40
20
31
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2000
2001
2002
Improving drought management is a national issue!
2003
2004
2006
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Why the sense of urgency?

• Water supplies are fully or over-appropriated in
  many river basins.
• All levels of government are poorly prepared for
  droughtreactive, crisis management approach.
• Existing water laws and institutions are based on
  outmoded values and goals.

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• Drought plans exist at the
• state, river basin, local and tribal levels of
  government.
• Response oriented
• Lack of coordination

Bottom Line
No national drought plan or policy currently
exists.
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Why the sense of urgency?

• Climate change is likely to increase the
  frequency, severity, and duration of drought.
• Increasing temperatures, increased evaporation,
  increased heat stress/heat waves
• Changes in precipitation amount, intensity,
  distribution, and form, increased variability
• Reduced snowpack, stream flow, ground water
  recharge, lower reservoir levels

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Temperature trends (F per century) since 1920
cooler warmer
3.6F 2.7F 1.8F 0.9F
PNW warmed 1.5o F during the 20th century
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Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997
Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier
D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in
western North America, BAMS, 86 (1) 39-49
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Portland, Oregon

• Portlands water needs by 2040 will increase by
  60 mgd, 40 mgd from regional growth 20 mgd from
  climate change impacts.

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Science and Policy Recommendations

• Implement a national drought policy as called for
  by NDPC and drought mitigation planning at all
  levels of government.
• Include the potential impacts of projected
  changes in temperature and precipitation due to
  climate change in drought risk mitigation
  planning.

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Science and Policy Recommendations

• Create a new national water culture that
  promotes sustainable water management practices
  to meet long-term societal needs.
• Broad educational initiative to foster
  partnerships between levels of government,
  universities, and public.
• Increased public education on the need for
  long-term drought mitigation and water resources
  management.

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Science and Policy Recommendations

• Engage stakeholders within common hydrologic
  basins in water and drought management planning.
• Foster place-based science with community
  stakeholder involvement as part of public
  education and outreach for natural resources
  decision makers, integrating local climate and
  water information and climate projections.

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Science and Policy Recommendations

• Maintain and enhance existing data networks and
  data sets, enhance timely delivery of data and
  information to decision makers and the public.
• Fully fund and implement the National Integrated
  Drought Information System (NIDIS).
• Foster development of sector-based decision
  support tools for natural resource managers,
  agricultural producers, and policy makers.

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NIDIS passed by Congress in late
2006. Implementation Plan issued by NOAA in June
2007. Multi-agency and organizational
effort. Drought Portal under development.
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Science and Policy Recommendations

• Encourage use of risk-based approaches for
  assessing multiple potential future climate and
  water management scenarios.
• Support research that improves fundamental
  scientific understanding of drought, i.e.,
  causes, predictability, impacts, mitigation
  actions, planning methodologies, and policy
  alternatives.

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Science and Policy Recommendations

• Value water at its full worth in the development
  of water resource management and drought
  mitigation plans.
• Harmonize roles and responsibilities of
  cooperating institutions and reduce conflicts to
  achieve more effective decision making.
• Fragmentation of responsibilities within and
  between levels of government constrains effective
  drought management.

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Its time for action!
http//www.geosociety.org/
Visit the NDMC drought.unl.edu dwilhite2_at_unl.edu