Baseline projections of European air quality up to 2020

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Baseline projections of European air quality up
to 2020
M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F.
Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W.
Winiwarter, W. Schöpp
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Driving forces

• CAFE baseline projections
• PRIMES energy projections with further climate
  measures
• CAPRI agricultural projections, pre-CAP reform

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Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES with
climate measures energy projection
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Land-based emissions With climate measures
baseline projection, EU-25
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CO2 emissions 2015relative to 2000
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Emissions from sea regions
SO2
NOx
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States
---- Sea regions
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Loss in life expectancy attributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5 months
Provisional calculations with generic assumptions
on urban increments
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Premature deaths attributable to
ozonecases/year
Provisional calculations with 5050 km grid
average concentrations
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Percent of forest area with acid deposition
above critical loads
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Semi-natural ecosystems (e.g., Natura2000)with
acid deposition above critical loads km2
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Percent of lake catchments area with acid
deposition above critical loads
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Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen
deposition above critical loads for eutrophication
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What will be the situation in 2020?

• Remaining air quality impacts
• Major sources of emissions

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Remaining problem areas in 2020Light blue no
risk
Health - PM
Healthvegetation - ozone
Vegetation N dep.
Forests acid dep.
Semi-natural acid dep.
Freshwater acid dep.
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Sources of primary PM2.5 emissions With climate
measures scenario, EU-15
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Sources of NOx emissionsWith climate measures
scenario, EU-25
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Sources of VOC emissionsWith climate measures
scenario, EU-25
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Sources of SO2 emissions With climate measures
scenario, EU-25
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The wider context

• Long-term trends
• Hemispheric background

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Long-term trends of EU-25 emissionswith climate
measures, relative to year 2000 100
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Increase in background ozoneCurrent
legislation scenario, 2000-2030 ppbv
Emission projections of NOx, CO, CH4 IIASA, TM3
model runs JRC-IES
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Conclusions

• Emissions will further decline
• But Air quality remains threat to human health
• Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be
  reached
• Relevance of sources will change
• Ship emissions will surpass those from land-based
  EU sources
• Energy projections will influence future
  emissions and emission control costs