Preparations for the review of the Gothenburg Protocol Report to the WGSR September 2006

1
Preparations for the review of the Gothenburg
Protocol Report to the WGSR September 2006

• Markus Amann et al.,
• EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling
  (CIAM)

2
Tasks for the review

• Development of baseline projections for emissions
• Based on national projections of (energy and
  agricultural) activity projections
• Compilation of input data
• For EU countries
• For non-EU countries
• Assessment of health and environmental impacts

3
EU countries NEC baseline projections (EU-25
BULROMTKCRONCH)

• Series of bilateral consultations with 22 Parties
  in 2005
• Review of emission inventories, projections,
  current legislation
• Energy projections
• National projections from 21 countries
• PRIMES scenario for 20 carbon price
• Agricultural projections
• National projections from 17 countries
• CAPRI scenario for the mid-term CAP reform
• Presentation in Brussels at Conference on
  September 29. 2006

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NEC baseline emission projections (EU-25,
National projections, relative to the 2000 levels)
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NEC baseline emission projections
(EU-25,National projections, relative to the
2000 levels)
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Comparison of NEC and CAFE baseline
emissionsEU-25, 2020
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Comparison of NEC and CAFE energy projections
EU-25, 2020
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CO2 emissions of the NEC baseline projections
EU-25, 2020
Nationalenergy projections
PRIMES 20scenario
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Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO2
mitigation (EU-25, 2020)
PRIMES 20scenario
Nationalenergy projections
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Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO2
mitigation (EU-25, 2020)
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Air pollution control costs for current
legislation 2020(SO2, NOx, PM) as a function of
CO2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020)
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Input data for non-EU countries

• Bilateral consultations held with
• Norway, (Switzerland)
• Russia, Ukraine (funded by DG-ENV)
• Belarus
• Draft input data documented in CIAM report 1/2006
• Feedbacks from national experts invited up to end
  of 2006
• Updated projections in early 2007

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Sources of energy projections for non-EU countries
Albania Gothenburg Protocol 1996 Norway National projection 2005/2006
Belarus Gothenburg Protocol, adjusted 2006 Romania PRIMES baseline 2005
Bosnia-H. Gothenburg Protocol 1996 Russia National projection 2002
Bulgaria PRIMES baseline 2005 Serbia-M. Gothenburg Protocol 1996
Croatia Gothenburg Protocol 1996 Switzerland National projection 2005/2006
T.F.Y.R.O. Macedonia Gothenburg Protocol 1996 Turkey PRIMES baseline 2005
Rep. of Moldova Gothenburg Protocol 1996 Ukraine National projection 2004
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Draft projections of emissions for non-EU
countries(relative to the 2000 levels)
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Further time table for the Gothenburg review

• December 2006 Deadline for comments on input
  data for non-EU countries
• May 2007 Draft assessment of environmental
  impacts presented to TFIAM
• August 2006 Report to the EMEP Steering Body
• September 2007 Report to WGSR

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Technical potentials for further PM2.5
reductionson top of Current legislation in
2020 in kt from sources which are included in
existing Protocols
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The EU-LIFE project EC4MACSEuropean Consortium
for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate
Strategies

• EU funding for a consortium of integrated
  assessment modelling teams to prepare and
  maintain modelling tools for air quality and
  climate policy development
• IIASA (CIAM) - Coordinator
• MNP/RIVM (CCE) - critical loads data
• NTUA Athens energy projections
• Uni Bonn et al. agricultural projections
• LTUA Thessaloniki transport modelling
• AEAT et al. benefit assessment
• MET.NO (MSC-W) dispersion modelling
• Supported by additional contracts for JRC Ispra
  and Sevilla
• Project time frame 2007-2012
• 4.5 million EU contribution (on co-funding
  basis)