Conference on European Territorial Research 1314 October 2005

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Conference on European Territorial Research13-14
October 2005

• Scenarios for European Spatial Development
• ESPON Project 3.2.
• Jacques ROBERT

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Objectives ESPON 3.2 has two main
objectives Synthesize all data and information
collected in the ESPON projects and other
transnational research efforts and build
spatialized scenarios on possible and
(un)desirable futures in order to deduce policy
recommendations from them. 2. Coordinate the
ESPON research effort in order to develop
sustainable tools allowing the creation of a
research network / programme on European
territorial planning.
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Information flows in the scenario writing process
European Territorial Cohesion Index
KTEN Model
Future Research Information Base
MASST Model
Scenario Writing
Communication and Consultation
Results of ESPON Projects
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Submodel 1 National component
Submodel 2 Regional differential component
Regional structural elements
Macroeconomic elements
Exports
National component
? Efficiency wage (inflation and productivity
increases)
Population
National growth - attractiveness - economic
success
Internal consumption
Social capital
Exchange rate movements / , national currencies
Human capital
Internal investments
Infrastructural level
Interest rates
Regional differential component
Public expenditure
Innovative capacity
Foreign direct investments
Differential shift
Imports
Capital / labour ratio
Accessibility
Final economic effect
Macroeconomic policies
Regional growth - attractiveness - economic
success - spatial spillovers
Regional equity disparities
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• The scenario writing process is composed of two
  phases
• - a series of exploratory policy-oriented
  thematic scenarios (up to summer 2005)
• - a series of integrated scenarios (prospective
  and roll-back)
• The scenarios will be assessed as to their impact
  on territorial cohesion
• Policy recommendations will be formulated

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Exploratory and policy-oriented thematic
scenarios (Phase 1 of Project 3.2.)

• Didactic objective of thematic scenarios
• Highlighting the territorial impacts of exogenous
  factors taken individually
• Approach
• For each theme, opposite hypotheses are chosen
  (relatively extreme, but not unrealistic)

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THEMATIC EXPLORATORY AND POLICY SCENARIOS
(ROLL-FORWARD)

• Demography
• Socio-cultural evolution
• Economy
• Transport
• Climate change

• Energy
• Rural development
• EU enlargement
• Territorial governance

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Scenario hypothesesDEMOGRAPHY

• Two prospective scenarios
• Silver century population ageing and
  contained European immigration (trend)
• Open borders radical change in European
  immigration policy (policy scenario)

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Socio-cultural evolution

• Two prospective scenarios
• Non-mastered socio-cultural diversity
  (increasing tensions between ethnic and cultural
  groups increasing segregation)
• towards a peaceful multicultural society in
  Europe
• (success of multiculturalism and integration
  policies)

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Economy

• Four scenarios resulting from the combination of
  two policy objectives- global economic
  efficiency and competitiveness- cohesion, equity
  in development
• 1. Strong competitiveness policy/weak cohesion
  policy
• 2. Weak competitiveness and weak cohesion
  policies
• 3. Strong cohesion policy/ weak competitiveness
  policy
• 4. Strong competitiveness and strong cohesion
  policies

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Transport

• Two policy scenarios
• 1. More investments in motorways
• (modal shift policies have been inefficient
  long-term traffic forecasts are alarming)
• 2. Decoupling economic development from mobility
  of people and goods
• (restrictions of road and air transport and
  implementation of the Lisbon strategy)

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Energy

• Two prospective scenarios
• Europe in a context of high energy price
  strong and sustained increase in energy price,
  but no oil scarcity
• Europe after oil peaking peaking of oil
  production at world scale and oil scarcity

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Rural development

• Two prospective scenarios
• Open market
• (liberalisation of international markets
  reduction of tariff barriers increasing
  agricultural productivity weak rural development
  policy)
• 2. Sustainable rurality
• (strong and integrated rural development policy)

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Climate change

• Two prospective scenarios
• Scenario Repairing instead of
  preventingLimitation of prevention measures
  because of their costly and unpopular character
• Scenario Anticipation of climate change through
  prevention measures (Policy scenario)On the
  basis of lessons learnt from the past decade,
  systematic prevention measures are implemented in
  a variety of fields and are supported by EU
  policies

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Territorial governance

• Two prospective scenarios
• The EU level moves from a sectoral to a
  territorial governance approach increasing role
  of regions in territorial governance
• Mainplayers in territorial governance are again
  the states alliance with municipalities
  efficient control of EU policies by national
  governments

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EU enlargement

• Competition between two objectives- further EU
  enlargements- deepening of integration
• - Scenario Europe as a market place
• Further EU enlargements (EU with approx. 40
  member states) Stopping further deepening of
  integration renationalisation of some policies
• - Scenario Europe as a templeDeepening of
  integration taking place at the expense of
  further enlargements Territorial cohesion and
  sustainable development are major priorities

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Examples of territorial impacts and policy
messages

• Scenario on population ageing Silver century
• Territorial impacts
• Retirement in areas with good access to services
  (health, culture) and with high security (lower
  crime rates)
• Growing spatial differentiation by generation
  concentration of retired people in rural areas
  concentration of active population in towns and
  metropolitan areas

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• Policy messages
• Need to elaborate solutions to the growing demand
  for specific services for aged people both in
  cities and in a number of rural areas
• Need to increase the education level of young
  generations, in particular of the less qualified
  (increasing demand for qualified people in
  replacement of retired people)
• Need to increase workforce participation (women,
  unemployed)
• Need to increase labour productivity

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Scenario Non-mastered integration

• Territorial impacts
• Increasing social segregation and insecurity in
  cities
• The better offs leave the large cities as
  residential location and commute by private cars
• Increasing degradation of facilities and housing
  in poor urban areas
• Development of gated communities near large
  cities and in tourist areas.
• Policy messages
• Pro-active immigration policy without strong
  integration policy is counterproductive, not only
  economically and socially, but also in
  territorial terms. It works against sustainable
  spatial development

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Energy scenarios

• Territorial impacts
• - Before oil production peaking
• Move of population towards southern and coastal
  regions (climate)
• Reduction of mobility by car (more compact
  cities)
• Reorganisation of production/consumption systems
  at intermediate scale (reduction of transport
  costs)
• Competition in the use of agricultural land
  between food and energy production (biofuels)
• Impacts of wind energy facilities on landscapes
• - After oil production peaking
• Decreasing attractiveness of large cities
  (economic and social problems)
• Move of new unemployed towards rural areas
  (subsistence)

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• Policy messages
• Increasing oil price makes investments profitable
  (further oil exploration, alternative energy
  sources, energy savings)
• The probability of conflicting policy objectives
  is high (for example nuclear energy/increasing
  safety wind energy/landscape protection)
• The probability of oil production peaking is 100
  sure uncertainty only about the date
• Alternative energy sources and energy savings
  should become a strong priority of public
  policies

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Climate changeScenario Repairing instead of
preventing

• Territorial impacts
• Increasing disparities between northern and
  southern regions (agriculture, tourism)
• Devitalisation of rural areas in southern Europe
  (declining agricultural production, depopulation,
  deterioration of landscapes and forests)
• Stronger pressure on rural areas of northern
  Europe (agriculture, tourism)
• Changes in migration flows between north and
  south
• Deterioration of assets and settlements in areas
  prone to floods
• Policy messages
• The absence of prevention measures in a context
  of accelerating climate change is likely to
  generate significant costs in the long range
  which will be higher than the costs of prevention
  measures

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Second phase Integrated scenarios

• Basic features Multi-thematic scenarios, using
  the scenario bases and parts of the thematic
  scenarios as well as further foresight
  investigations
• Common background all integrated scenarios have
  a common background, considered as unavoidable in
  the period 2005-2030
• - Population ageing
• - Accelerating globalisation
• - Increasing energy price and changing energy
  paradigm
• - Growing negative impacts of climate change

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• Differentiation between the integrated scenarios
• Differentiation results from different
  hypotheses concerning a number of specific
  policies related to alternative (or joint)
  priorities (cohesion, competitiveness,
  integration etc.)
• Principles of elaboration
• - The integrated scenarios are qualitative
  scenarios supported by a number of quantitative
  models and projections (used for instance for
  quantifying indicators)
• - The qualitative scenarios will produce
  spatially differentiated results and information
  going farther than model outputs and projections,
  both in terms of themes considered and of
  territorial impacts

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• Baseline Scenario
• Basic hypotheses
• Continuation of trends and no major changes in
  policies applied (but including recent policies,
  such as the enforcement of the Kyoto Agreement)

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• Demography 
• - Fertility down and mortality down gt population
  ageing
• - Total European population stable (
  enlargement)
• - Increasing, but globally controlled external
  migration
• Economy 
• - constant, but modest economic growth
• - slowly increasing total activity rate
• - slowly growing RD expenditure, but constant
  technological gap to USA
• - decreasing public expenditure 

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• Energy 
• - steady increase of energy prices
• - consumption stable/decreasing
• - increase of the use of renewables
• Transport 
• - continued growth of all traffic categories,
  but curbed down by energy price, energy saving
  measures and Kyoto Agreement, with possible
  modal shift
• - constant increase of infrastructure endowment

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• Rural Development
• - further liberalisation of international trade
• - reduction of CAP budget
• - increased industrialisation of agricultural
  production
• - further diversification of functions of rural
  areas
• - strong dualisation of rural areas, however
  attenuated by the production of biofuels

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• Socio-cultural sector
• - increasing polarisation between socio-cultural
  groups
• - growing socio-cultural (ethnic, religious, and
  social) tensions
• Governance 
• - increasing cooperation between cross-border
  regions
• - increase in multi-level and cross-sectoral
  approaches, but limited to specific programmes
  (rural development)
• - maintain of competition and incoherence
  between policies devoted to innovation /
  competitiveness and others devoted to cohesion

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• Climate change 
• - Moderate overall climate change until 2030
  (1)
• - Increase of extreme local events
• - Constant emission levels
• - Few (too little) structural adaptation measures
  
• Enlargement 
• - by 2008 Bulgaria Romania
• - by 2020 Western Balkans
• - by 2030 Turkey
• - continued combination of deepening and widening
• enlargement of Eurozone

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• Integrated scenario Competitive Europe through
  liberalisation
• Basic hypotheses
• - In-depth revision of public interventions, in
  particular at EU level
• - General reduction of EU budget targeting of
  EU interventions towards RD and education, ICT,
  strategic external accessibility at the expense
  of CAP and Structural Policies

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• Demography 
• - increase in selective (economic sectors
  destination) immigration
• - abolishment of constraints to internal
  migration
• - increase in retirement age
• - encouraging fertility rate through fiscal
  incentives
• Socio-cultural sector 
• - reactive social problem management in large
  cities
• - increase of surveillance and security systems

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• Economy 
• - reduction of total public expenditure
• - further privatisation and liberalization of
  public services
• - priority of public expenditures to RD,
  education, ICT and strategic external
  accessibility (ICT and transport)
• - more and easily accessible venture capital
• - flexibilisation of labour markets
• Energy 
• - realisation of TEN E investments in
  infrastructure according to market demand
• - priority to alternative (non-based on oil and
  gas), large-scale energy production for
  metropolitan areas

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• Transport 
• - realisation of TEN-T investments in
  infrastructure according to market demand
• - priority to links between metropolitan areas
• Rural Development 
• - rapid and radical liberalisation of CAP
  (reduction of tariffs, budget and export
  subsidies)
• - reduction of rural development policy
• - rapid industrialisation of agricultural
  production

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• Governance 
• - abolishing barriers to cross-border
  cooperation
• - less public intervention
• - reinforcement of the Open Method of
  Coordination
• - increasing role of private sector in decision
  making
• - strengthening of the third pillar (foreign
  policy, justice, security, ...) of the EU
  policies
• Climate Change 
• - mitigation measures based on flexible schemes
  stimulation of alternative technologies.
• - adaptation measures only where cost efficient

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• Enlargement 
• - Continuing enlargement to widen the market
• - Romania, Bulgaria 2008
• - Western Balkan 2015
• - Turkey 2020, possibly Ukraine
• - Strengthening of the neighbourhood policy
  (Maghreb, Russia etc.)

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• Integrated scenario Socio-economically and
  territorially cohesive Europe
• Basic hypotheses
• - Strong EU cohesion policy
• - Structural policies integrate competitiveness
  objectives

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• Demography 
• - restrictive external migration policies
• - more flexible retirement ages
• - encouraging fertility rates (gt encourage
  better balance of population structure)
• - more flexible arrangements for child care
• Economy 
• - maintaining importance of EU budget
• - reinforcement and strong focus of structural
  funds on weakest regions
• - further harmonization of taxation and social
  security systems, as far as non detrimental to
  the competitiveness of less developed countries
   

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• Socio-cultural 
• - promotion of regional and European identities
• - integration of marginal groups (ex gypsies,
  etc) in peripheral areas
• - proactive socio-cultural integration policies
• - increased fiscal and/or social investment in
  quality of life issues (health, personal care,
  local environment, etc...)
• Energy 
• - realisation of TEN-E
• - promotion of decentralised energy production
  (in particular renewables)

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• Transport 
• - development of TEN-T with priority to
  peripheral regions at different scales
• - support to transport services in rural and
  less developed regions
• Governance 
• - active multi-level territorial governance, in
  particular in areas supported by structural funds
• - strong role of public actors in territorial
  governance
• - stronger role for the European Commission

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• Rural Development 
• - minor CAP reforms, but shift from pillar 1 to
  pillar 2. Priority to less developed rural
  regions in the field of direct payments to
  farmers (pillar 1)
• - priority to environmental and animal health
  criteria
• - slow industrialisation and moderate
  diversification of agricultural production,
  promotion of quality products
• - active policy for diversification of rural
  areas, including SMEs, tourism, residential
  functions etc.

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• Climate Change 
• - strict mitigation measures (taxes, road
  pricing as far as non detrimental to peripheral
  regions)
• - wide range of adaptation measures (EU hazard
  funds, large investments)
• Enlargement 
• - break on further enlargement (except Bulgaria
  Romania, but will enter later than foreseen)
• - only lip service to neighbourhood policy

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• Hypotheses for the desirableroll-back scenario
• Two possibilities
• Starting from an ideal image of the European
  territory and investigating the possibilities of
  achieving it through policies
• or starting from a set of policies combining
  cohesion and competitiveness and investigating
  its impacts on the territory until the final
  image looks desirable