Food and Climate Change

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Food and Climate Change

• The world on a plate
• Tara Garnett
• Food Climate Research Network

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This presentation

• Brief overview of climate change
• Food its GHG emissions an LCA perspective
• Specific foods veg, alcohol, meat dairy
• Focus on transport
• The health / climate change relationship
• Impact of climate change on food system
• The population issue
• Reducing food GHGs - some options
• What is the industry doing?
• What is the policy framework?
• Observations / conclusions
• A bit about the FCRN

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1. Climate change an overview
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The facts

• Latest (2007) IPCC report
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
  is very likely over 90 certainty due to the
  observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
  concentrations

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What is more

• Under BAU temperatures to rise by about 3C by
  2100 (range 2 to 4.5C ).
• 2C rise dangerous climate change
• Were already committed to 1C rise even if we
  stop producing any more GHGs right now.
• Developed world needs to achieve at least 80
  cuts by 2050

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Defining terms

• GHGs greenhouse gas emissions
• CO2 the main GHG but
• others also important especially for food
• Methane 23x more potent than CO2
• Nitrous oxide 296x more potent than CO2
• Refrigerant gases thousands of times more potent

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2. Overall food related GHG emissions
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The LCA perspective
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Overall food-related contribution to GHG
emissions

• EU EIPRO report 31 all EU consumption related
  GHGs
• FCRN UK estimates around 19 (probably an
  underestimate) - Defra estimates similar
• World agriculture contribution 17 - 32 total
  global emissions
• Huge uncertainty / variability between countries
  / differences in whats included and whats not
  intensity of other industry sectors

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Food GHG impacts by life cycle stage - UK
As of UK consumption related GHG emissions est
.at 234 MTCe
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But the hotspots vary by food

• Meat dairy Agriculture
• Field veg Transport and cooking
• Protected veg Agriculture
• Crisps bread Agriculture processing
  transport combined
• Small bottle beer Packaging
• Baked potato, pasta, tea Cooking

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3. Impacts by food type
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FCRN work so far

• Meat and dairy about 8.5
• Fruit and veg - about 2.5
• Alcoholic drinks about 1.5
• This is of the UKs TOTAL GHG emissions
• Similar to this Dutch study

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Klaas Jan Kramer, Henri C Moll, Sanderine
Nonhebel, Harry C Wilting, Greenhouse gas
emissions related to Dutch food consumption,
Energy Policy 27 (1999) 203-216, Elsevier
Publications
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Snapshot findings

• Fruit and veg
• High impact air freighted, ratatouille veg,
  perishable/squashable
• Low impact field grown/seasonal shipped robust
• Alcoholic drinks
• Impact areas transport, packaging, consumption
  (hospitality sector )

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Livestock the main concern

• Global 18 global emissions (FAO 2006)
• EU15 EU GHGs or 50 of all food impacts (EIPRO
  2006)
• Kramer et al (1999) 50 of all food impacts
• UK (from FCRN study) about 8.5
• Variation depends on whats included (eg. LU
  change) baseline consumption GHGs

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Livestocks impacts significant even when...

• Foods are highly processed
• Ready meal vs. home cooking study (Sonesson et al
  2005)
• Cadburys chocolate bar
• Or come from far away
• New Zealand study

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Livestock benefits disbenefits
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BUT global trends in demand...
Source FAO 2006
...are unsustainable
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Inequality continues p.c. meat to 2050
Source FAO 2006
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Per cap. milk to 2050
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Livestock emission reduction options

• Nutrient use optimisation fertiliser
  applications breeding crops for better N use
  efficiency
• Build soil carbon stocks
• On farm energy efficiency
• Anaerobic digestion
• Managing the diet feed inputs, grass breeding
• Animal genomics breeding for longevity,
  fertility, low methane, productivity
• 2nd order impacts?
• Cereal/ oilseed inputs and land use change
• Animal welfare implications
• Biodiversity

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How low can you go with technology good
management?

• UK Committee on Climate Change report 25-30 by
  2020 (agriculture as a whole)
• Industry led milk road map 20- 30 by 2020
  aspirational
• Cooking up a storm report 30 without behaviour
  change...(agriculture as a whole)

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But even if tech improvements cut livestock
impacts by 50

• (and this is ambitious)
• We wouldnt have a reduction in GHG emissions
  just no increase
• Reduction in consumption needed too
• But by how much?

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If yr 2000 consumption levels were maintained

• At 9 billion people this would mean
• Meat 25 kg year (500g/week)
• Dairy 53 kg a year (a litre a week).
• In other words
• 2 sausages, 1 small chicken piece and small pork
  chop a week
• And milk for cereal tea OR 100 g cheese (3
  sandwiches?) a week
• Similar to developing world levels today.

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Implications for livestock production

• Not technology management VERSUS demand
  reduction either alone insufficient.
• Both needed.

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4. Focus on transport
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Transport What about food miles?

• 2.5 3.5 of UK GHG emissions (incl imports)
• Is nearer better? It depends.
• There are trade-offs to consider
• Eg. agricultural production, manufacturing
  efficiency, energy mix, cold storage, waste
• On the other handrelationship between transport
  distance refrigeration, waste
• Structural impacts on economy and infrastructure
  investment
• Answer now might be different to answer in 5
  10 years time

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What about air freight?

• The most GHG intensive form of transport
• Less than 1 all food carried by air but 11
  total food transport CO2 (including car trips)
• Kenyan green beans 20-26 times more GHG intensive
  than seasonal UK beans

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Air freight continued.

• Absolute impacts small but in relative terms
  growing and it subsidises passenger transport
• The greater the volume, the cheaper it is to fly
  food
• Food is the fastest growing air freighted
  commodity
• Growth slowed in current climate... Long term
  trend?

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Is air always the worst option?

• Sometimes other options can be more GHG
• intensive (eg. hothouse flowers in February
• from Holland)
• BUT
• This doesnt meant that air freight is okay
• It just means that both have very high
• impacts!

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Howeverair freight and LDCs

• Of top 20 air freight importers by volume, almost
  all less developed countries
• 1-1.5 mill people dependent on export
  horticulture in SSA (up to 120,000 directly
  employed)
• Lives depend upon it some excellent projects
• Policy needs to achieve max devt for minimum GHG
  cost... But isnt thinking this way.

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5. The nutrition / CC relationship
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Health Is healthy food less GHG intensive?

• It depends

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Two balanced mealsA ninefold GHG difference
Health AND environment policy approach or health
VERSUS environment?
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The nutrition challenge different for rich and
poor

• The rich Less meat, less fat, less sugar more
  grains veg win-win for health environment
• The poor Develop food production systems that
  maximise nutrition at minimum GHG cost
• Some livestock products nutritionally useful for
  vulnerable groups
• Role for area-specific livestock production
• Need to integrate nutrition/CC policy

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6. Impact of climate change on the food system
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Impacts on agriculture

• Huge uncertainty... Impacts depend on
• interplay between
• Gradual temperature increase
• CO2 effect
• Wildcards (extreme drought, flooding)
• Water
• Economics, demographics, infrastructure

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Impacts continued

• Northern countries some benefits to 2050 - then
  negative
• Southern (poor) countries negative and then
  more negative
• Changes in crop suitability
• Crop and livestock diseases
• Water
• Poor will suffer most

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The picture by 2050
Source IPCC 2004 Wkg Gp II Ch5
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Post harvest impacts

• Food sourcing, processing and distribution
• Disruptions to transport stationary
  infrastructure
• Unpredictability can lead to crop spoilage
  waste
• Changes in sourcing decisions?
• More imports to developing world
• Consumption
• Changes in consumer demand?
• Consequences for food industry household energy
  use?
• Food safety problems?

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The CC context

• Need to consider the social, economic, political,
  demographic and infrastructural context
• Climate change exacerbates existing
  vulnerabilities of poor in developing world
• The more rapid the climate change the harder it
  will be to adapt
• Poor farmers less likely to be able to adapt
  infrastructural, political, economic barriers
• CHALLENGE is to combine mitigation with
  adaptation role for research and policy

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7. The population issue

• Is the problem just too many people?

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Which people?
Source World Development Movement 2004
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Whos responsible?

• USA 5 world population contributes 22 to
  world emissions (WRI)
• 25 of Chinas emissions are due to exports
  (Tyndall Centre 2007)
• Development necessary - balance will change
• Challenge for wealthy world is to support low
  carbon sustainable development
• And to lead by example hypocrisy isnt helpful

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8. Reducing foods GHG contribution
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How far will technology get us?

• Agriculture plant breeding better nutrient use
  alternative fuel sources for greenhouses
  anaerobic digestion
• Manufacturing CHP / trigeneration / life cycle
  costing
• Refrigeration 20-50 efficiency savings
  possible novel technologies including non HFC
  refrigeration, trigeneration (increases
  efficiency from 38 to 76).
• Packaging lightweighting, alternative materials,
  ambient storage packaging

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Technology continued...

• Transport modal shift, efficient supply chains
  cleaner fuels (in future years)
• Retailing massive scope for improvements in
  lighting and refrigeration renewables
• Domestic energy efficient appliances
• Lots of little impacts/solutions rather than one
  big one

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But

• Will this get us to an 80 cut by 2050?
• (And is 80 possible for food?)
• Do we need to change our patterns of consumption?

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What might a low GHG diet look like?

• Not overeating
• Much less meat and dairy
• Seasonal field grown foods
• Not eating certain foods
• Reducing dependence on cold chain
• But wasting less
• Efficient cooking
• Redefining quality

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How?

• Life is complicated and
• food is a complex part of life

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Food and its meanings
Entertainment
Nurture
Neurosis
Pleasure
Need
Guilt
Ritual
Food
Habit
Satisfaction
Social glue
Love
Status
Power
Bribery
Comfort
Religious significance
Time-pass
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Influenced by wider forces

• Price / affordability
• Availability
• Time work / stressed leisure syndrome
• Culture, social family expectations, norms,
  aspirations
• Knowledge, information, fashions beliefs
  (education, media, marketing)
• Demographic changes ageing population, single
  person society, wealth
• Technological changes
• Season
• Tastes
• Habits

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You cannot wait for consumers to change their
behaviour

• They dont know enough
• They dont care enough
• They wont unless they have to... Govt and
  industry must take the lead change the context
  of consumption policies, prices, sticks and
  carrots

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70 reduction for food is possible

• If we combine technological improvement with
  behaviour change

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9. What is the food industry doing?
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Food industry initiatives agriculture

• Sustainable Agriculture Initiative (Nestle,
  Unilever, Danone, Kraft etc) dairy work
• EUREPGAP (not climate focused though)
• Roundtables on sustainable soy / palm oil
• Unilever LCA work long history .. Others
  starting too
• Bayer CropSciences 15 CO2 reduction by 2020
  stress tolerant crops biofuels

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Food industry initiatives retailers

• M S
• 200 million Plan A
• All operations carbon neutral by 2012
• 25 energy cut power stores with green
  electricity
• Label and reduce air freighted produce
• Tesco
• Label and reduce air freighted produce
• 50 energy cut in stores and DCs by 2020
• 100 million renewables fund / SCI in Manchester
• Halve distribution emissions / case in 5 yrs

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Food industry initiatives manufacturers

• Tate Lyle biomass boiler to replace 70 fossil
  energy
• McCain's up to 70 electricity needs from
  renewables including wind turbines and CHP plant
  running on biogas
• Cadburys 50 absolute cut in carbon emissions
  by 2020
• Many others starting to carbon footprint their
  operations
• But focus of food industry is on efficiency
  rather than shifts in consumption.

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Carbon footprinting

• PAS 2050
• Carbon labelling UK
• Carbon labelling France, Switzerland,
  Australia, New Zealand, Germany

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10.The policy context global and UK
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The global context

• Rising population 9 billion by 2050
• Long term growth in oil prices
• Dash for biofuels (slightly mitigated in EU / UK)
• Nutrition transition
• More wealthy more poor people
• Land pressures
• (Climate change legislation...)

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A few framing policies/initiatives

• Kyoto Protocol
• Bali 2007 agreement on deforestation
• EU Emissions Trading Scheme ( devts in Australia
  and NZ too)
• European Commission Energy Policy
• 20 GHG cut by 2020 (should be 30)
• Biofuels 10 transport fuels by 2020 (modified)
• Copenhagen Climate Change Summit 2009 (Poznan
  now)

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Climate relevant legislation and initiatives - UK

• Climate Change Act 80 target (up from 60)
• Committee on Climate Change report - highlights
  agriculture behaviour change
• Stern Review on climate change costs of
  inaction up to 20 GDP
• Climate Change Agreements / Levy
• Carbon Reduction Commitment (consultation)
• PAS 2050 (plus Carbon Trust label).
• Carbon Trust initiatives advice

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And for food...

• Cabinet Office Food Matters report
• Council of food policy advisors to advise on a
  strategic approach to food policy
• Foresight land use project... ditto global
  agriculture
• Things are happening in the UK, but slowly

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More strategic thinking needed

• Principle Contraction Convergence
• Tools Carbon pricing, global cap trade,
  personal carbon trading ...
• Food sits within this larger framework...

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Source Global Commons Institute www.gci.org.uk
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11. Observations and conclusions
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Foods impacts

• Climate change is happening
• Food contributes to a significant proportion of
  global GHG emissions
• All stages in the supply chain contribute to
  emissions
• Agriculture most significant stage / meat and
  dairy most GHG intensive food
• Global food demand is moving in more GHG
  intensive directions

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• Climate change will affect global food supply -
  poor regions will suffer most
• Technology unlikely to get us where we need to be
• Consumption shifts needed too
• Policy and govt beginning to tackle problem but
  only from efficiency perspective

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Land the big challenge

• In the context of 9 billion on planet by 2050
• What is the best use of global land so that
• We are all fed adequately ...
• At minimum GHG cost?
• Stored carbon is not released?
• Biodiversity is protected?
• Other ethical non-negotiables upheld??
• Meeting Needs rather than demand - only feasible
  approach

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Implications for sustainable agriculture

• Sustainable agriculture only makes sense in the
  context of sustainable consumption and
  nutritional needs
• Not just how we grow or rear it but what we
  choose to grow or rear
• And how it links with our basic need for
  nutritious food

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Sustainable agriculture
Nutritional needs food security
Sustainable consumption
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12. About the FCRN
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The FCRN

• Funded by UK research council Defra
• Based at Surrey University
• Focuses on
• Researching food chain contribution to GHG
  emissions and options for emissions reduction
  technology, behaviour, policy
• Sharing and communicating information on food
  climate change with member network

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FCRN outputs

• Five comprehensive studies so far
• Fruit vegetables
• Alcoholic drinks
• Food refrigeration
• Meat dairy
• Synthesis paper
• All at www.fcrn.org.uk

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• Comprehensive website see www.fcrn.org.uk
• Working seminars To inform research
• Networking To catalyse further research
• E-news on food/GHGs to over a thousand members
• Please join...

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Thank you

• Tara Garnett
• taragarnett_at_blueyonder.co.uk
• www.fcrn.org.uk
• Food Climate Research Network