FAA Center of Excellence for General Aviation Research

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FAA Center of Excellence for General Aviation
Research
A Look Ahead
June 4, 2008
Yuri GawdiakDirector Systems Modeling Analysis
DivisionJoint Planning Development Office
(JPDO)
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NextGen Challenge

• Current System is Not Performing Adequately
• Current System is Not Scalable
• NextGen Plan Offers a Transformation Approach to
  Resolving Current Inadequacies
• Cost of not moving to NextGen is prohibitive

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(No Transcript)
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Air Traffic Management Transformation
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Relative Influence of ANSP and Aircraft/Pilot ATM
Decisions
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Enterprise Architecture Alignment
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NextGen Capabilities

• Provide Effective Information Environment
• Provide Integrated Regulatory Risk Management
• Provide Collaborative Capacity Management
• Provide Collaborative Flow Contingency Management
• Provide Efficient Trajectory Management
• Provide Flexible Separation Management
• Provide Flexible Airport Facility Surface
  Operations

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SMAD Integrated Modeling and Analysis Process
DemandModeling(Sensis, LaRC, VaTech)
Security/Economics (GRA)
Determine Feasible Future Demand
Physics-Based Airport/Airspace Analysis
LMINET (LMI)
Airport/Airspace Queuing Model
Environmental Modeling (Metron)
ACES (Sensis, ARC)
Wx modeling
IndividualRunwayModeling(Boeing, LMI)
NAS Strategy Simulator (Ventana)
NGATS Airport Capacities
Probabilistic Wx And TFM Tool (Sensis)
NAS Economics
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High Density Case StudySimulation Approach
JPDO Enterprise Architecture
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Technology Trade Space
By-Pass Alternatives (based on OIs)
m2
f1
3
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Manage Alternatives (based on OIs)
f2
b2
m1
Risk
Fix Alternatives (based on OIs)
b1
Time
0
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Benefit
Full Portfolio Trade Space
Updated JPDO Enterprise Architecture
Policy/Key Decision Models
m2
f1
5
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Dec. 4
Dec. 1
m1
Dec. 5
Dec. 2
b1
Risk
Dec. 6
Dec. 3
Dec. n
Time
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Benefit
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Top Policy IssuesStrategic Decisions Challenges

• Culture/Roles Transition
• Infrastructure Upgrades
• Consolidation Realignment
• Interoperability/Equipage
• Research Deployment Bandwidth.
• Safety Security
• Budget Alignment/Stability
• Rules of the Road
• Environment Management
• Federal Roles in Airport Capacity

Will use this information to simulate adjust
Portfolio Results of the HD Alternatives
Subject Matter Based Estimates
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Draft Stakeholder Performance Metrics Matrix
Stakeholders
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Future Scenario Challenges
Billions of Runs
Millions of Runs
Thousands of Runs
Hundreds of Runs
JPDO Full Lifecycle Evaluations out to 2040
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System Modeling Challenges
Complex Terminal Surface Operations
Safety/Security Risk Exposure
Productivity/Inefficiencies
Policy Dynamics
System-wide Technology Effects (Situational
Awareness/Data Quality)
Collaboration Behaviors Market/Fleet Strategies
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Backup
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Notional Example
Goal 1
Goal 2
Goal 3
Goal 4
Goal N
Goals Objectives
Capacity
Safety
Security
Environmental Impact
Efficiency / Economy
Capability / Performance Areas
Projects Programs
Current Material Non-Material Investments
JPDO Partner Investment Portfolios
Future / Proposed Investments
FAA
DOT
NASA
DOD
DHS
DOC
Cost XX Time XX Risk XX Benefit XX
Cost XX Benefit XX Resource XX
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative Attributes
Costs
Time
Risk
Benefit
Resources
JPDO PMD, SMAD, and EAED Policy Analysis
Alignment
NextGen Work Products
Assessment
Assessment identifies alternatives and gaps to be
filled by needed material/nonmaterial investments
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Relative Influence of ANSP and Aircraft/Pilot ATM
Decisions