Understanding Congressional Decisions Through Vectors

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Understanding Congressional Decisions Through
Vectors

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Buffeted Like a Billiard Ball
Members of Congress face many competing
pressures. These pressures differ both in the
direction they attempt to push the Member and the
degree to which they influence the final
decision. In many ways, Members are like billiard
balls buffeted by different CUES. A ball on a
billiard table struck by the cue ball gets pushed
a measurable distance in a certain direction
depending on the speed and direction of the cue
ball.
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A slight direct tap on one side pushes the ball a
short distance Away from the direction of the
incoming force. A harder direct hit From the
other side pushes the ball further in the
opposite direction.
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A slight direct tap on one side pushes the ball a
short distance away from the direction of the
incoming force. A harder direct hit from the
other side pushes the ball further in the
opposite direction.
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Result
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A Moment with the Physicists
Students of physics talk about physical forces as
VECTORS. A vector has DIRECTION and MAGNITUDE.
The direction tells where the force is pushing
the TARGET. Magnitude indicates how much of a
force is involved. A good understanding of the
various vectors hitting a target allows the
physicists to predict exactly where and how far
the targeted ball will move. Although physics
deals with physical force, the underlying
principles apply in our model.
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• Out of sight, out of mind If you dont hear
  from a group or individual, they dont care
  enough about the issue to be important.

• My people, not your people Members of Congress
  are elected from a constituency and feel more
  beholden to constituents or groups who have a
  constituency tie.

• Politics makes consistent bedfellows Members of
  Congress ofen see themselves as a team of fellow
  party members who may be encouraged to cooperate
  by a president from their party.

• Picking and choosing is a part of politics
  Members of Congress often have to make tough
  choices, heeding the desires of one group or
  individual over another.

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• You cant be a statesman without being elected
  Needing to win election drives many decisions.
  Members with weak electoral margins are much more
  responsive to constituents than those who win in
  a walk.

• In unanimity there is strength Interest groups
  and presidential administrations that speak with
  one consistent voice exert more influence than
  those who are diverse. Two interest groups of
  equal importance to the Member pushing in
  opposite directions can cancel each other out.

• Presentation and persistence matter Groups and
  individuals skillful at making their case with
  facts, figures, and local applications increase
  their potential to influence.

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Members Position No Preference
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
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The Vector Personal Preference 3
Members Position Weak Support
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The Vector Interest Groups Pressure -5
Members Position Weak Opposition
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
-1 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
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In the abstract, Representative Able has decided
that constituency opinion is the most important
factor followed by his personal preference and
input from one of the two interest groups. The
presidents position and that of the Brady
Campaign are relatively unimportant.
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The Vector Personal Preference 3
Members Position Weak Support The Lesson
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Starting Point/No Preference/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
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The NRA may not know he values their input and
write him off prematurely. Under these
conditions, his decision would look like this
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Brady Campaign 1
Constituency 5
Members Position Strong Support The Lesson
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
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Under the specified conditions, the
decision-making process would look something like
this
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Personal Preference 3
Constituency -5
Members Position Weak Opposition The Lesson
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
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Personal Preference 3
Presidents Preference 1
Bradys Campaign 1
Constituency -5
Members Position Equal Pressure The Lesson
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
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• Flip a coin Make a decision irrespective of
  the pressures.

• Opt out by voting present. This maintains
  ones attendance record but does not count toward
  the final vote.

• Take a walk Simply do not vote on the issue.

• Have ones cake and eat it too Congressional
  procedures allow Members to PAIR with a
  colleague who would have voted the other way.
  Both participants announce how they would have
  voted, but their votes do not count toward the
  total. This allows the Members to soften the
  blow of offending some of those pushing him or
  her to vote the other direction by being able to
  say their vote did not affect the outcome.

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Up Close and Personal The Vector Model in Action
The magnitude of vectors varies across individual
Members of Congress depending on their political
needs. Let us assume that Congressman Junior is
in his first term after winning a tough race by a
small margin. He is faced with a decision to
strengthen gun control legislation, a position
regularly taken by members of his party. In his
campaign, he often told the story of how his
brother was wounded in a carjacking as the basis
for his desire for stronger gun laws. His
district voted strongly for a popular president
of the opposite party. Congressman Junior
received modest PAC contributions and a clear
endorsement from the Brady Campaign to Prevent
Gun Violence, a pro gun control interest group.
Polls show that 60 of his constituents and 75
of those who voted for him support tougher gun
control legislation. The NRA is a presence in
his district. He realizes he will never get
their full support, but hopes to stake out a
position that will not make him a target for
removal by them.
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Which influences do you think will be most
important in his decision? choose two
The president
His constituency
The National Rifle Association (NRA)
His personal preference
The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence
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The President
Try Again Correct Answer
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something.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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Constituency
Correct!
Try Again Advance to Presentation
Junior and political insecure Members are very
attuned to their constituencies, especially their
base of supporters. Given the dramatic impact on
his life and his public commitment to gun
control, personal preference is likely to play a
pretty big role in his decision.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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National Rifle Association
Try Again Correct Answer
Click Try Again. You seem to have missed
something.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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Personal Preference
Correct!
Try Again Advance to Presentation
Junior and political insecure Members are very
attuned to their constituencies, especially their
base of supporters. Given the dramatic impact on
his life and his public commitment to gun
control, personal preferences is likely to play a
pretty big role in his decision.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence
Try Again Correct Answer
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something.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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Congressman Junior recognizes the following
potential influences and has weighted their
magnitude as follows
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Using the vector approach, where do you expect
he will come out on this vote?
Strong supporter Weak supporter Abstention Weak
opponent Strong opponent
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Strong Supporter
Try Again Correct Answer
That is probably an overstatement. While
Congressman Junior would undoubtedly support the
legislation, there are some opposing pressures
that would temper his support. He is likely
quietly to vote for the bill but not serve as a
major strategist trying to drum up support among
his colleagues.
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Graphically, the decision would look something
like this
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Personal Preference 3
Bradys Campaign 2
Presidents Preference -1
Constituency 3
NRA -1
Members Position Weak Support
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
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Abstention
Try Again Correct Answer
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something.
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Weak Opponent
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something.
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Strong Opponent
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something.
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Which influences do you think will be most
important in his decision? choose two
The President
Her Constituency
The National Rifle Association
Her Personal Preference
The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence
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The President
Try Again Advance to Presentation
GOOD. Party leaders are expected to support
presidents of their party. This would be pretty
easy for Representative Senior since
constituency, personal, and key interest group
influences are also pushing her in the same
direction.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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Constituency
Try Again Advance to Presentation
By all rights, Representative Senior does not
HAVE to pay much attention to her constituency
given her strong electoral margin. On the other
hand, she might have such a strong margin BECAUSE
she has been attentive to their desires. In this
case supporting her constituents views is not
difficult since the other important pressures
point in the same direction.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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National Rifle Association
Try Again Advance to Presentation
GOOD. The NRA looks as if it is important in her
decision, and it well might be. On the other
hand, she might be the beneficiary of the NRA
support as a reward for past support which
originated from other pressures.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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Personal Preference
Try Again Advance to Presentation
NOT A BAD CHOICE. Personal preference on the
issue is not very important given her lack of
passion on gun control per se. On the other
hand, many Members feel passionate about
maintaining consistency.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence
Try Again Advance to Presentation
Click Try Again. You seem to have missed
something.
Did you make two selections? If not, return to
make a second choice.
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Congressman Senior recognizes the following
potential influences and has weighted their
magnitude as follows
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Using the vector model approach where do you
expect he will come out on this vote?
Strong supporter Weak supporter Abstention Weak
opponent Strong opponent
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Strong Supporter
Try Again Correct Answer
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something.
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Weak Supporter
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something.
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Abstention
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something.
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Weak Opponent
Try Again Correct Answer
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something.
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Graphically, the decision would look something
like this
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Personal Preference -3
Presidents Preference -4
Constituency -2
NRA -4
Members Position Strong Opponent Off the Scale
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Strong Opposition Strong Opposition Weak Opposition Weak Opposition Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Starting Point/Neutral/Abstention Weak Support Weak Support Strong Support Strong Support
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1. LIMITING THE NUMBER OF INFLUENCES Members of
   Congress are buffeted by many more potential
   influences. For example, we have not really
   taken into account party leaders or Members
   staff in our analysis. The module also only
   includes two interest groups, when in reality
   dozens may be involved in any one decision.

1. ASSUMING CLARITY OF DIRECTION The module assumes
   the message from each influence source is clear
   and unambiguous. That is not always the case.
   For example, even though a Member may desire to
   support the position of his or her constituency
   strongly, constituencies who split down the
   middle on an issue may nullify their potential
   influence. Divided constituents may force
   Members to choose among components of the
   constituency. They might put more weight on past
   supporters or on those who are more vocal. In
   any case the more split the constituency, the
   more it reduces the magnitude of that influence.

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Some Overall Lessons (click to view each)

• Support and opposition form a continuum - There
  is a difference between strong and weak
  supporters of a position, while balanced
  pressures may lead Members of Congress to opt out
  of a tough vote. Moving someone from strong
  support to strong opposition requires significant
  pressure. In some cases it may be enough to move
  them only a short distance to gain ones goal.
  For example, on a close vote it may be enough to
  move some Members from weak opposition to opting
  out.

• The magnitude and direction of influences are
  additive - Equal influence in opposite
  directions can cancel each other out, while
  consistent influences pushing in the same
  direction may strengthen a Members position.

• Magnitude of an influence is not universal -
  Members of Congress vary as to what they deem
  important, but that variation is not simply
  random. Some patterns do prevail.

• Timing is Important Pressure not applied is
  largely pressure which has little effect.
  Representatives try to anticipate reactions less
  than react to real ones. Decisions are often
  made before all the influences are apparent.

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• Brought to you by

The Dirksen Congressional Center http//www.dirkse
ncongressionalcenter.org