RSC4_II.2.3RAPIDC and its implementation (RSC4/1/2)

1
Progress in the Implementation of the RAPIDC
Programme
Johan Kuylenstierna, SEI
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RAPIDC Structure
PMC
RAPIDC
SEI
Sida
Malé Declaration
APINA
Air Pollution Networks
CORNET
APCEN
CAD
APMA
3
RAPIDC Structure
PMC
RAPIDC
SEI
Sida
Malé Declaration
APINA
Air Pollution Networks
CORNET
APCEN
CAD
APMA
4
Indian CAD stations
10 years of data
Limited records
Bhubaneswar
Pune
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Monitoring Long-term trends
Indian CAD stations
Sulfate in rainwater at Bhubaneswar 1997-2004
10 years of data
Limited records
Bhubaneswar
Pune
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Monitoring Long-term trends
Temporal variations of pH, SO4, NO3, Ca and NH4
in rain water at Pune urban sites during 1984
2004 from the CAD network (source Rao et al.)
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RAPIDC Structure
PMC
RAPIDC
SEI
Sida
Malé Declaration
APINA
Air Pollution Networks
CORNET
APCEN
CAD
APMA
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Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network
Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring
Capacity
Developing emission inventories, scenarios and
integrated assessment
Support for the Malé Declaration
Technical Assistance
Supporting and strengthening impact assessment
capacity
Support decision making for prevention and
control of air pollution
Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia
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Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network
Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring
Capacity
Developing emission inventories, scenarios and
integrated assessment
Support for the Malé Declaration
Technical Assistance
Supporting and strengthening impact assessment
capacity
Support decision making for prevention and
control of air pollution
Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia
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Malé Monitoring Monthly means of SO2 2006
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Male Monitoring Monthly means of NO2 2006
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Male Monitoring Monthly means of O3 2006
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EMEP Monitoring Monthly means of O3 2005
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Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network
Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring
Capacity
Developing emission inventories, scenarios and
integrated assessment
Support for the Malé Declaration
Technical Assistance
Supporting and strengthening impact assessment
capacity
Support decision making for prevention and
control of air pollution
Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia
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Emission Inventories
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Preliminary emissions inventory results for
Pakistan (Inventory year 2005).
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Future Plans

• Consolidate and update national inventories
• Continued QA/QC,
• Inclusion of large point sources,
• Update inventory to 2005
• Improvement of Malé emissions inventory
  preparation Manual/Workbook
• Improved transport emissions section
• Scenarios/policy options module
• Spatial and temporal disaggregation
• Speciation of NMVOCs into reactivity classes
• Suitable emission factors
• Include methodologies to help estimate activity
  data

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Emission Scenarios
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and the other way around...
How would you like the future to look like?
Backcasting
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Work tasks

• Develop capacity in Scenario Development
• Manual for the Development of Emission Scenarios
  for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in South
  Asia
• Help find best pathway for linking of inventories
  to scenario based tools
• A focus has emerged on delivering a sound
  foundation rather than experimenting with example
  scenarios from National data.
• Deliver training in Scenarios development
• Emission Scenario introduction and application
  training for Malé partners Bangkok July 06,
  February 07, one more in 08

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Atmospheric Transport of Pollutants

• MATCH model in Malé IIAS
• Training in principles of atmospheric transport
• MATCH model installed at Malé Secretariat

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Modelling projects within RAPIDC-III

• Ozone modelling in South Asia for crops-impact
  project
• Deposition-, PM-, ozone- modelling for Malé
  information software (IIAS)
• Installation of MATCH at UNEP for usage by
  regional partners
• Training of meteorologists in principles of
  atmospheric transport in July 2006 and 2007

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Ozone modelling in South Asia
Modelled three-month AOT40 (accumulated over 40
ppb(v)) over snow-free land areas of South Asia
during 2000.
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Installation of MATCH at UNEP/RRC-AP

• MATCH installed in Bangkok. Model tested. Limited
  training given to UNEP/RRC-AP staff. Overview
  lectures for Malé representatives at 2 workshops.
• Large interest to run MATCH by some Malé
  delegates (e.g. Pakistan).
• Emission inventories lacking
• Technical (and practical) problems in taking care
  of all model results.

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Malé Integrated Information and Assessment System
Pollutant Emissions
Atmospheric transport
INTEGRATED INFORMATION AND ASSESSMENT SYSTEM
Emission inventory
Pollutant deposition or concentration
Driving forces and scenarios
Policies for pollutant prevention and control
Impacts on health, crops, materials and
ecosystems
Monitoring
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Malé Declaration IIAS Integrated Information and
Assessment System

• Aims of the IIAS
• - integrate Malé Declaration activities, data and
  information
• investigate the linkages between emissions,
  concentrations
• and deposition and compare to monitoring values
• A tool to look at the risks of the regional air
  pollution to
• acidification, health and crops
• A tool to investigate the implications of
  scenarios including
• different policy interventions

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MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP
etc.)
Emissions by 1ox1o grid
Emission inventory
S, N Deposition (by grid)
Emission workbook Emission Manual
Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)
New Deposition
Prevention Control options options
Policy instruments Energy, transport and
industry scenarios
CURRENT STATUS
Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.)
Risk areas
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Source/receptor modelling for IIAS
Total NOX deposition in Malé domain, only
emissions from Northern and Southern India,
respectively
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The near surface concentrations of SO2 across
South Asia from the MATCH model using EDGAR
emission estimates for 1995.
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP
etc.)
Emissions by 1ox1o grid
Emission inventory
Scenario
S, N Deposition (by grid)
Ozone
PM2.5
Emission workbook Emission Manual
Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)
New Deposition
Prevention Control options options
Policy instruments Energy, transport and
industry scenarios
Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.)
Health impacts
Crop yield losses
PHASE III Other pollutants and impacts
Risk areas
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Rapid Urban Assessment (RUA)

• Activities
• Training in methods
• Application of RUA in Kathmandu, Nepal, 2006/07
• Top-down emission inventory for city harmonized
  with Malé manual
• Disaggregation of emissions using satellite data
• Dispersion modelling in urban area
• Monitoring campaign (PM/NO2)

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Passive sampler campaign

• Kathmandu10 sites bi-monthlySO2, NO2, HNO3, PM,
  O35 sites Benzene. Sampling initiated in
  November 2006.
• Mapping campaign40 sites NO260 sites PM20
  sites SO2Sampling initiated in May 2007

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Kathmandu Additional PM Monitoring
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Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network
Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring
Capacity
Developing emission inventories, scenarios and
integrated assessment
Support for the Malé Declaration
Technical Assistance
Supporting and strengthening impact assessment
capacity
Support decision making for prevention and
control of air pollution
Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia
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• Human health impacts
• Hold training workshops in assessment methods (in
  Bangkok October 2006 and in 2007)
• Health study in Dhaka

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Schools study to determine air pollution impacts
on childrens health in Dhaka
Study undertaken by MoE and NIPSOM
Questionnaire to parents. Children chosen. Staff
trained and then 6 week study Personnel
Epidemiologist, Nurse, Technicians recruited to
run study Method 100 randomly selected asthmatic
children chosen and 50 control

• 10 teachers chosen and trained
• Monitoring site near or at school
• Respirometer for all 150 children twice
• daily
• All symptoms recorded, all data logged
• and analysed by epidemiologist/
• statistician

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Acidification studies

• Training workshops to be held in 2008 based upon
  manual developed

Terrestrial Ecosystem Sensitivity to Acidic
Deposition in South Asia (preliminary assessment
Source Kuylenstierna et al. 2001
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Time development of acidification
Soil acidification at Mt. Lu in southern China
(Zhao, 1996)
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The time development of acidification of soils in
South Asia
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Malé Declaration Crop Impacts Study

• Project activities
• Using Indicator Plants to assess risk of ozone
  pollution
• Chemical protectant studies
• Ozone survey (Bhutan)
• Training
• Countries
• Bangladesh
• Bhutan,
• India,
• Pakistan,
• Sri Lanka

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Risk assessment using Indicator Plants

• Undertake biomonitoring study using plants
  sensitive to ozone
• Grow cuttings in pots
• Tend plants
• Assess damage to plants and yield
• Analyse data

Ozone induced injury on clover
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The ozone effect on ozone sensitive clover clones
exposed to ambient air pollution levels in
Potchefstroom, South Africa in 2006
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• Establish sites with crop plants grown in pots
  with standard soils and wicks to keep plants at
  standard moisture
• Spray soil of some pots with EDU (ethylene
  di-urea) and control pots not sprayed. EDU
  protects plants from ozone.

Assessing Yield Reductions

• Harvest plants and compare
• yields of protected and un-protected crops

Pakistan soybean cv. NARC-1 showing protective
effect of EDU at a roadside rural site in Lahore,
Pakistan (photo courtesy of A. Wahid)
Pilot chemical protectant study using EDU and
mung bean run in Varanasi, India Country
studies in 2007/8
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EDU Study results Varanasi -EDU effect on mung
bean plants exposed to ambient Ozone in 2006
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Malé Corrosion Activities

• i. Exposing standard samples on racks
• 4 Malé sites India, Iran, Nepal and Sri Lanka
• Exposure of kits
• In Kathmandu with RUA
• iii. Stock at risk training
• In Kathmandu with RUA

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Assess corrosion at sitesBattaramulla, Sri
Lanka, 27 November 2006
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Assess corrosion at sitesTaj Mahal, Agra, 25
November 2006
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Assess corrosion at sitesTeheran, Iran, 20
November 2006
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Assess corrosion at sitesKatmandu, Nepal, 14
November 2006
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Results of corrosion exposure at CORNET sites in
Asia and Africa
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Corrosion Impact Activities

• ii. Exposure of kits
• to determine relative corrosion in sites with
  different pollution
• Expose for 1 year
• iii. Stock at risk training
• identify materials in typical buildings (random
  inventory of 100s of buildings)
• Generalise occurrence of buildings across city
• Include street infrastructure and vehicle fleet
• Estimate economic losses for materials with D-R
  relationships

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Demonstrate corrosion risksKatmandu, Nepal,
14-16 November 2006
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4.3.2 Demonstrate corrosion risksKatmandu,
Nepal, 14-16 November 2006
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Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network
Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring
Capacity
Developing emission inventories, scenarios and
integrated assessment
Support for the Malé Declaration
Technical Assistance
Supporting and strengthening impact assessment
capacity
Support decision making for prevention and
control of air pollution
Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia
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Policy Options

• Policy case study manual by IIIEE Policy
  Options for Air Pollution Prevention and Control
  in South Asia has evolved as a sourcebook with
  regional and international examples plus context
  definition rather than a review
• Complemented by Compendium of best practices on
  Prevention and Control of Air Pollution by Ram
  Shrestha (AIT)
• Further work on implementation issues and
  relevance of options to different Malé countries
  by SEI to be added
• Two training courses held in 2006 and 2007

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RAPIDC Structure
PMC
RAPIDC
SEI
Sida
Malé Declaration
APINA
Air Pollution Networks
CORNET
APCEN
CAD
APMA
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RAPIDC Structure
PMC
RAPIDC
SEI
Sida
Malé Declaration
APINA
Air Pollution Networks
CORNET
APCEN
CAD
APMA
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APINA Air Pollution Information Network for
Africa

• APINA is a network of policy makers, scientists,
  NGOs, industry and other stakeholders formed in
  1998
• APINA has the objective to ensure that existing
  impacts of air pollution in Africa are tackled
  and emerging risks are prevented.
• It aims to fill the gaps in knowledge on air
  pollution and ensure that currently available
  information and concerns are articulated to
  policy makers in Africa.

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Air Pollution Issues

• Most of the household energy use in southern
  Africa is derived from biomass
• More than 90 of the electricity is derived from
  coal emissions
• There is a metal industry which releases sulphur
  dioxide which has local and transboundary effects
• Motorised transport is increasing in the region
  imported reconditioned vehicles
• Biomass burning is also a major problem and has
  been found to be comparable to industrial
  pollution

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APINA Activities

• Like Malé, APINA carries out activities on all
  aspects of the air pollution policy cycle
  including
• Emission inventories (similar progress to Malé,
  linked to ministries)
• Atmospheric transfer modelling
• Deposition Monitoring
• Impacts (health, crops, ecosystems, corrosion)
• Rapid urban and integrated assessment
• BAQ Sub-Saharan Africa (Training and Ministerial
  Meeting in Nairobi July 2006)
• Decision making support information

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RAPIDC Air Pollution Networks
APCEN Air Pollution Crop Effects Network CAD
Composition of Asian Deposition CORNET
Corrosion Network APMA Air Pollution in the
Mega Cities of Asia
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APCEN Air Pollution Crop Effects Network

• Global network linking air pollution and crop
  effects scientists
• Methods build upon successful UNECE Network
  activties
• Project activities
• Using Indicator Plants to
• assess risk of ozone pollution
• Chemical protectant studies
• Coordination of exposure
• experiments

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APCEN Status of pilot studies
Biomonitoring study in Potchefstroom, South
Africa, using ozone-sensitive and ozone-resistant
genotypes of white clover terminated in April
2006 Main results Clover plants grew well in
southern African climate and showed slight
ozone-induced foliar injury
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APCEN network meetingAssessing air pollution
impacts on crop productivitySeptember 19-21,
2006,Stellenbosch, South Africa

• To discuss and agree protocols for biomonitoring
  campaign
• To evaluate the status quo of APCEN and develop
  strategies how to expand and link the network
  globally
• To transfer experience in assessments of air
  pollution impacts on crops and air quality
  management tools between regions IGAC satellite
  session
• To bring together regional air pollution
  experts, decision-makers and other appropriate
  stakeholders to ensure development of suitable
  pollution abatement strategies and discuss
  priorities for future

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CAD Composition of Asian Deposition

• The CAD project is divided into two components
• Network development and best practice
• Training scientists from Asia

• Activities
• Linkages with DEBITS, Malé Declaration, EANET,
  and ABC
• Inter-calibration with EANET program
• Passive sampler inter-comparison study
• CAD Workshop at IICT, Hyderabad (Dec 2006)

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CAD Composition of Asian Deposition

• Outcomes
• Measurements are now being initiated at two new
  sites in ecologically sensitive parts of northern
  India Pant Nagar and Jorhat
• An Indian Research scholar has been employed in
  the CAD project and several student projects,
  including one PhD, are being carried out using
  CAD data
• A comprehensive review of Indian deposition data
  and their interpretation has been published
  (Kulshrestha et al., 2005 Atmospheric
  Environment 39, 7403-7419). This review is to
  large degree based on CAD activities during the
  past several years

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CORNET Corrosion Network

• Global network of scientists looking into the
  impact of ar pollution on the corrosion of
  materials
• Exposing standard samples on racks
• Network of sites across Asia and southern Africa
• Exposure of kits
• iii. Stock at risk study

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CORNET - progress

• Joint Corrosion and Health training for the Malé
  Declaration
• and International CORNET meeting, Bangkok
  October 2006
• The trend analysis started in the summer of 2005
  and will be
• completed in connection with the 4-year
  samples.
• The purpose of the trend exposure is to
• - establish trends in pollution and corrosion
• - transfer knowledge on evaluation of specimens
  to the region

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Corrosion Results
Degradation of painted steel after 1 and 2 years
of exposure
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Corrosion Results
Recession of limestone after 1 and 2 years of
exposure
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APMA Air Pollution in the Mega Cities of Asia

• Support AQM strategy formation in selected Asian
  
• cities is currently being identified.
• The benchmarking report prepared for publication
  and
• will be published by Earthscan in 2006.
• Development of an AQM information system (AMIS-
• Asia) for Asian cities to facilitate the
  transfer of AQM
• and best practice to support decision-making
• processes and strategy formation.

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The Future Ownership RAPIDC will not be
coordinated by SEI in the future (2008-) Direct
contract between Sida and Malé Secretariat SEI
can continue to advise as required by
countries/secretariat Countries have to
implement activities. RAPIDC can only provide
technical assistance Priorities Consolidation
of Monitoring Network and activities Implementatio
n of emission inventories and scenarios
Implementation of impact studies Linkage to
other regional initiatives
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Participants at 1st APINA emissions inventory
workshop held in Blantyre, Malawi, 19th 23rd
February 2006
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Preliminary emissions inventory results for 3
pollutants by sector for Zimbabwe (Inventory year
2000).
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Future Plans

• Develop specialist Centre for emissions
  estimation for Malé Declaration
• to coordinate emissions inventory activities
• to merge national inventories these into a
  regional inventory
• to coordinate reporting and compile regional
  overview reports
• to implement emissions scenarios (e.g. for 2025,
  2050)
• to organize capacity building training
  workshops, work-exchange visits,
• to coordinate activities within the atmospheric
  modelling centre (where MATCH model is set up)
  etc.

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Backcasting

• Present state and trend analysis
• Envisage limits for sustainability
• Scenario Development (possible and desirable)
• How do we get there? strategies, planning and
  processes for change

• Source Löwendahl/ www.goteborg2050.nu

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Where to from here?

1. Build from theory into practice
2. Find mechanisms to cement knowledge in key
   organisations
3. Forming direct and meaningful access to
   decision-makers
4. Integration of tools fed by real regional data

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Risk assessment using Indicator Plants
Visible injury (white rash of spots at edge of
leaf) on leaf of sensitive white clover clones at
pilot site in South Africa (Smit, pers. comm.)
Dose-response relationship for white-clover (from
Europe), the diamond indicates the
sensitive/resistant biomass ratio from South
African pilot study and the dotted line an
estimate of the ambient AOT40 level according to
European data (Smit, pers. comm.)
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Air Pollution Crop Effect Network (APCEN)
Bio-monitoring and Chemical Protectant Studies
Pakistan soybean cv. NARC-1 showing protective
effect of EDU at a roadside rural site in Lahore,
Pakistan (photo courtesy of A. Wahid)
EDU suppresses acute and chronic ozone injury on
a variety of plants under ambient O3 conditions
(Godzik Manning, 1998)
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RAPIDC Approach
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Modelling for IIAS
EDGAR emissions 11 resolution
Completed simulations
TRACE-P emissions 0.50.5 resolution
New national emission inventory
Malé monitoring stations
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Corrosion Impact Activities

• i. Exposing standard samples on racks
• to determine an absolute measure of corrosion
  and develop dose-
• response relationships
• Need to monitor SO2, NO2, O3,
• HNO3 and PM (total deposited)
• bi-monthly
• rain pH and amount (weekly)
• Need a met station measuring
• ToC and RH

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RAPIDC Programme Purpose to facilitate the
development of agreements and/or protocols to
implement measures which prevent and control air
pollution through promoting international
cooperation and developing scientific information
for the policy process
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Scientific knowledge to underpin the policy
process
Pollutant Emissions
Atmospheric transport
Emission inventory
Pollutant deposition or concentration
Driving forces and scenarios
Policies for pollutant prevention and control
Impacts on health, crops, materials and
ecosystems
Monitoring