Emission and Air Quality Trends Review

1
Emission and Air Quality Trends Review
New Hampshire March 2012
2
Summary
3
Project Objective

• To develop and present publicly available
  information on trends in emissions and ambient
  air quality over the past ten years in easy to
  understand visual and tabular formats

4
Emission Trends Summary

• All pollutants have decreased since 1999 in
  aggregate across New Hampshire
• NOx and SO2 from Electric Utility Fuel Combustion
  sources show significant decrease over time as a
  result of Acid Rain Program, NOx Budget Trading
  Program and CAIR control implementation
• Onroad emission step increase seen between 2004
  and 2005 is the result of EPAs method change and
  MOVES model integration for estimating onroad
  mobile source emissions

5
New Hampshire Emission Trends (NOx)
6
New Hampshire Emission Change (NOx)
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -1,661 -3,553 -3,980 -4,000 -3,695 -2,883 -2,929 -5,527 -5,366 -6,328 -5,255
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -1,727 -1,640 -1,344 669 190 -735 -2,270 -2,258 -2,584 -2,578 -2,702
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 90 165 5,279 5,287 5,296 5,304 5,264 5,224 5,184 5,144 5,104
Other Fuel Combustion 0 -152 -92 781 779 777 779 759 739 719 700 680
Industrial Processes 0 69 95 -1,531 -1,361 -1,191 -1,460 -1,463 -1,465 -1,467 -1,469 -1,472
Highway Vehicles 0 -1,494 -3,470 -3,073 -6,090 -9,106 -771 -2,948 -5,124 -7,300 -9,476 -11,652
Off-highway Vehicles 0 -54 -18 1,468 1,270 1,071 846 569 291 13 -265 -542
Miscellaneous 0 64 39 -78 -70 -62 -78 -55 -51 -71 -61 -61
Total 0 -4,866 -8,474 -2,478 -3,516 -6,720 1,002 -3,072 -8,170 -10,872 -14,333 -15,900
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -17 -37 -41 -41 -38 -30 -30 -57 -56 -66 -54
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -46 -44 -36 18 5 -20 -61 -61 -69 -69 -73
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 5 9 301 301 302 302 300 298 296 293 291
Other Fuel Combustion 0 -3 -2 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 15
Industrial Processes 0 3 5 -74 -66 -58 -71 -71 -71 -71 -71 -71
Highway Vehicles 0 -4 -8 -7 -15 -22 -2 -7 -12 -17 -23 -28
Off-highway Vehicles 0 -1 0 17 15 13 10 7 3 0 -3 -6
Miscellaneous 0 79 48 -97 -87 -77 -97 -68 -63 -88 -75 -75
Total 0 -7 -12 -3 -5 -9 1 -4 -11 -15 -20 -22
7
New Hampshire Emission Trends (SO2)
8
New Hampshire Emission Change (SO2)
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 6,181 4,557 -1,469 -6,427 -2,991 1,363 -1,915 52 -3,886 -7,786 -3,675
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -10,546 -12,118 -10,285 5,401 1,274 -5,666 -13,490 -13,225 -14,907 -14,525 -15,169
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 404 632 -1,999 -1,913 -1,827 -1,741 -1,838 -1,936 -2,033 -2,130 -2,228
Other Fuel Combustion 0 124 301 -2,185 -2,093 -2,001 -1,957 -1,964 -1,972 -1,979 -1,986 -1,993
Industrial Processes 0 18 36 -577 -538 -498 -501 -501 -501 -501 -501 -501
Highway Vehicles 0 -371 -456 -619 -702 -785 -719 -814 -910 -1,005 -1,101 -1,196
Off-highway Vehicles 0 3 22 -4 -33 -62 -107 -213 -318 -424 -529 -635
Miscellaneous 0 18 11 -21 -17 -14 -21 -10 -7 -18 -12 -12
Total 0 -4,168 -7,016 -17,159 -6,322 -6,904 -9,350 -20,746 -18,817 -24,753 -28,571 -25,409
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 15 11 -4 -16 -7 3 -5 0 -10 -19 -9
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -68 -78 -66 35 8 -36 -87 -85 -96 -93 -97
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 9 14 -43 -41 -39 -38 -40 -42 -44 -46 -48
Other Fuel Combustion 0 1 3 -23 -22 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21
Industrial Processes 0 3 5 -83 -77 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72
Highway Vehicles 0 -25 -30 -41 -47 -52 -48 -54 -61 -67 -73 -80
Off-highway Vehicles 0 0 2 0 -4 -7 -12 -23 -35 -46 -58 -69
Miscellaneous 0 84 52 -99 -82 -65 -100 -45 -34 -83 -58 -58
Total 0 -6 -10 -24 -9 -9 -13 -28 -26 -34 -39 -35
9
Air Quality Trends Summary

• Average O3 design values have decreased since
  1999 in New Hampshire average PM2.5 design
  values have decreased since 2001 (incomplete data
  in 1999 and 2000)
• O3 design values have decreased since 1999 in
  Boston-Manchester-Portsmouth, (SE), NH, the only
  current O3 non-attainment areas there are no
  current PM2.5 non-attainment areas in New
  Hampshire

10
Max O3 DVs and Trend
11
Average O3 DVs and Trend
12
O3 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites
13
Max PM2.5 Annual DVs and Trend
Note Trend is drawn from 2001-2003 DV to
2008-2010 DV. Years 1999 and 2000 do not meet
data completeness requirement for this trend
study.
14
Average PM2.5 Annual DVs and Trend
Note Trend is drawn from 2001-2003 DV to
2008-2010 DV. Years 1999 and 2000 do not meet
data completeness requirement for this trend
study.
15
Max PM2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend
Note Trend is drawn from 2001-2003 DV to
2008-2010 DV. Years 1999 and 2000 do not meet
data completeness requirement for this trend
study.
16
Average PM2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend
Note Trend is drawn from 2001-2003 DV to
2008-2010 DV. Years 1999 and 2000 do not meet
data completeness requirement for this trend
study.
17
Annual PM2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites
18
24-Hour PM2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites
19
Background
20
Project Objective

• To develop and present publicly available
  information on trends in emissions and ambient
  air quality in the U.S. over the past ten years
  in easy to understand visual and tabular formats
• Include additional qualitative assessment of
  meteorological influences on these trends as
  available for temperature and rainfall anomalies

21
Emission Trends
22
Emission Trends

• Study Team collected and processed U.S. EPA
  emission inventories for years within the study
  period of interest (1999-2010)
• By pollutant and source category
• electric generation fuel combustion
• industrial fuel combustion
• other fuel combustion
• industrial processes
• on-road vehicles
• non-road engines and vehicles
• miscellaneous

23
Emissions Data Summary

• Data Obtained from EPA National Emission
  Inventory (NEI) and Trends Websites
• EPAs Trends reports and emission comparisons
  include interpolations of all categories between
  key years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012
  projection)
• Pollutants VOC, NOx, CO, SO2, PM10, PM2.5 and
  NH3
• Project Improvement
• The Study Team augmented above data with year
  specific CEM emissions (2002 through 2010), MOVES
  onroad emissions (2005 through 2010), and
  wildfire emissions data (2005 through 2009)

24
New Hampshire Emission Trends (VOC)
Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 67 79 73 74 77 80 81 81 86 75 63 66
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 92 77 78 61 97 90 62 40 41 36 38 40
Industrial Fuel Combustion 80 80 83 247 242 238 234 233 232 231 231 230
Other Fuel Combustion 29,133 9,297 9,300 38,810 30,263 21,717 13,170 13,025 12,880 12,736 12,591 12,446
Industrial Processes 29,343 26,771 27,556 23,871 23,673 23,474 23,276 23,016 22,755 22,495 22,235 21,974
Highway Vehicles 24,511 22,402 21,026 21,681 20,763 19,845 17,607 16,664 15,721 14,778 13,836 12,893
Off-highway Vehicles 18,468 18,394 18,316 21,950 21,749 21,548 21,346 20,615 19,884 19,153 18,422 17,691
Miscellaneous 197 328 272 27 107 187 20 343 420 119 262 262
Total 101,891 77,428 76,704 106,721 96,972 87,180 75,796 74,017 72,020 69,623 67,678 65,602
Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Fuel Combustion 29 12 12 36 31 25 17 18 18 18 19 19
Industrial Processes 29 35 36 22 24 27 31 31 32 32 33 33
Highway Vehicles 24 29 27 20 21 23 23 23 22 21 20 20
Off-highway Vehicles 18 24 24 21 22 25 28 28 28 28 27 27
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
25
New Hampshire Emission Trends (VOC)
26
New Hampshire Emission Composition (VOC)
27
New Hampshire Emission Trends (NOx)
Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 9,661 7,999 6,107 5,681 5,661 5,965 6,778 6,732 4,134 4,294 3,332 4,405
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 3,722 1,995 2,082 2,377 4,391 3,912 2,987 1,452 1,464 1,138 1,144 1,020
Industrial Fuel Combustion 1,754 1,844 1,919 7,033 7,041 7,050 7,058 7,018 6,978 6,938 6,898 6,858
Other Fuel Combustion 4,608 4,456 4,515 5,389 5,387 5,385 5,387 5,367 5,347 5,327 5,307 5,288
Industrial Processes 2,069 2,137 2,164 538 708 878 608 606 604 602 599 597
Highway Vehicles 41,873 40,379 38,402 38,799 35,783 32,766 41,101 38,925 36,749 34,573 32,397 30,220
Off-highway Vehicles 8,547 8,493 8,530 10,015 9,817 9,619 9,394 9,116 8,838 8,560 8,283 8,005
Miscellaneous 81 145 119 3 11 19 3 26 30 9 20 20
Total 72,314 67,448 63,840 69,836 68,798 65,594 73,315 69,242 64,144 61,442 57,981 56,414
Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 13 12 10 8 8 9 9 10 6 7 6 8
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 5 3 3 3 6 6 4 2 2 2 2 2
Industrial Fuel Combustion 2 3 3 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 12 12
Other Fuel Combustion 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9
Industrial Processes 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Highway Vehicles 58 60 60 56 52 50 56 56 57 56 56 54
Off-highway Vehicles 12 13 13 14 14 15 13 13 14 14 14 14
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
28
New Hampshire Emission Trends (NOx)
29
New Hampshire Emission Composition (NOx)
30
New Hampshire Emission Trends (SO2)
Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 40,179 46,360 44,735 38,709 33,751 37,188 41,542 38,264 40,231 36,293 32,393 36,504
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 15,595 5,049 3,477 5,310 20,997 16,869 9,929 2,105 2,370 688 1,070 426
Industrial Fuel Combustion 4,626 5,030 5,258 2,627 2,713 2,799 2,885 2,787 2,690 2,593 2,495 2,398
Other Fuel Combustion 9,406 9,530 9,707 7,221 7,313 7,405 7,449 7,441 7,434 7,427 7,420 7,413
Industrial Processes 696 714 732 119 159 198 195 195 195 195 195 195
Highway Vehicles 1,499 1,128 1,043 880 797 714 780 685 589 494 398 303
Off-highway Vehicles 914 918 936 911 881 852 807 701 596 490 385 280
Miscellaneous 21 39 32 0 4 7 0 12 14 4 9 9
Total 72,936 68,768 65,921 55,778 66,614 66,032 63,586 52,191 54,119 48,184 44,365 47,527
Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 55 67 68 69 51 56 65 73 74 75 73 77
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 21 7 5 10 32 26 16 4 4 1 2 1
Industrial Fuel Combustion 6 7 8 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5
Other Fuel Combustion 13 14 15 13 11 11 12 14 14 15 17 16
Industrial Processes 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Highway Vehicles 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Off-highway Vehicles 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
31
New Hampshire Emission Trends (SO2)
32
New Hampshire Emission Composition (SO2)
33
New Hampshire Emission Trends (PM2.5)
Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons) Annual Emissions (Tons)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 2,236 2,600 2,469 2,135 2,230 2,316 2,363 2,355 2,504 2,163 1,852 1,914
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 233 157 151 220 462 436 285 128 138 107 120 131
Industrial Fuel Combustion 432 442 460 3,748 3,758 3,768 3,777 3,765 3,752 3,739 3,726 3,713
Other Fuel Combustion 7,075 4,252 4,260 8,477 8,482 8,486 8,487 8,374 8,260 8,146 8,032 7,919
Industrial Processes 5,239 5,488 5,890 1,107 1,138 1,169 1,199 1,197 1,195 1,193 1,191 1,190
Highway Vehicles 929 836 775 714 670 626 1,198 1,129 1,061 992 923 855
Off-highway Vehicles 1,008 992 981 977 966 955 943 920 897 875 852 830
Miscellaneous 5,078 5,335 4,238 1,867 1,900 1,934 1,865 1,986 2,014 1,902 1,956 1,956
Total 22,231 20,101 19,224 19,245 19,606 19,690 20,118 19,854 19,821 19,117 18,654 18,508
Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Annual Emissions (Percent of Total)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 10 13 13 11 11 12 12 12 13 11 10 10
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Industrial Fuel Combustion 2 2 2 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20
Other Fuel Combustion 32 21 22 44 43 43 42 42 42 43 43 43
Industrial Processes 24 27 31 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Highway Vehicles 4 4 4 4 3 3 6 6 5 5 5 5
Off-highway Vehicles 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4
Miscellaneous 23 27 22 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 11
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
34
New Hampshire Emission Trends (PM2.5)
35
Northeastern States Emissions Summary
Annual Emissions (Tons) -- 2010 Annual Emissions (Tons) -- 2010 Annual Emissions (Tons) -- 2010 Annual Emissions (Tons) -- 2010 Annual Emissions (Tons) -- 2010 Annual Emissions (Tons) -- 2010 Annual Emissions (Tons) -- 2010
State VOC NOX CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3
Connecticut 126,453 99,826 632,128 26,305 51,972 15,977 7,158
Delaware 31,359 41,431 181,175 31,392 16,579 5,615 15,112
DC 8,667 13,097 55,846 3,349 7,070 1,476 188
Maine 93,067 68,882 419,472 27,811 67,963 23,095 9,673
Maryland 200,163 223,683 1,232,977 111,286 129,282 50,490 30,250
Massachusetts 230,986 214,781 1,154,570 85,010 205,930 50,733 13,711
New Hampshire 65,602 56,414 326,714 47,527 45,860 18,508 2,862
New Jersey 272,442 259,880 1,493,509 42,004 81,643 33,015 11,230
New York 642,408 549,643 3,061,952 234,765 410,712 88,980 61,833
Pennsylvania 513,555 620,087 2,528,595 566,251 490,384 143,320 91,748
Rhode Island 31,439 23,132 152,328 6,687 9,215 2,462 775
Vermont 32,143 23,520 186,122 6,573 57,281 11,413 9,495
Total 2,248,284 2,194,374 11,425,389 1,188,960 1,573,892 445,085 254,034
36
Emission Changes

• The following slides represent the
  percentage-based emissions change from 1999 to
  2010 for each pollutant as well as a comparison
  map of 2010 annual emissions
• Negative values indicate decrease in emissions,
  positive values indicate an increase

37
New Hampshire Emission Change (VOC)
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 13 7 7 10 13 14 14 19 8 -3 -1
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -15 -14 -30 6 -2 -30 -52 -51 -56 -53 -52
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 0 2 166 162 158 154 153 152 151 150 150
Other Fuel Combustion 0 -19,835 -19,833 9,677 1,131 -7,416 -15,963 -16,108 -16,252 -16,397 -16,542 -16,687
Industrial Processes 0 -2,573 -1,788 -5,472 -5,670 -5,869 -6,067 -6,328 -6,588 -6,848 -7,109 -7,369
Highway Vehicles 0 -2,109 -3,485 -2,830 -3,748 -4,666 -6,905 -7,847 -8,790 -9,733 -10,676 -11,618
Off-highway Vehicles 0 -74 -152 3,482 3,281 3,080 2,878 2,147 1,416 685 -46 -777
Miscellaneous 0 131 76 -170 -90 -9 -177 147 223 -78 66 66
Total 0 -24,463 -25,187 4,830 -4,919 -14,711 -26,095 -27,874 -29,871 -32,268 -34,213 -36,289
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 19 10 11 15 20 21 22 28 12 -5 -1
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -16 -15 -33 6 -2 -32 -57 -55 -61 -58 -57
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 0 3 207 202 196 191 190 189 188 187 186
Other Fuel Combustion 0 -68 -68 33 4 -25 -55 -55 -56 -56 -57 -57
Industrial Processes 0 -9 -6 -19 -19 -20 -21 -22 -22 -23 -24 -25
Highway Vehicles 0 -9 -14 -12 -15 -19 -28 -32 -36 -40 -44 -47
Off-highway Vehicles 0 0 -1 19 18 17 16 12 8 4 0 -4
Miscellaneous 0 67 38 -86 -46 -5 -90 75 114 -39 33 33
Total 0 -24 -25 5 -5 -14 -26 -27 -29 -32 -34 -36
38
Annual Emission Summary (VOC)
39
New Hampshire Emission Change (NOx)
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -1,661 -3,553 -3,980 -4,000 -3,695 -2,883 -2,929 -5,527 -5,366 -6,328 -5,255
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -1,727 -1,640 -1,344 669 190 -735 -2,270 -2,258 -2,584 -2,578 -2,702
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 90 165 5,279 5,287 5,296 5,304 5,264 5,224 5,184 5,144 5,104
Other Fuel Combustion 0 -152 -92 781 779 777 779 759 739 719 700 680
Industrial Processes 0 69 95 -1,531 -1,361 -1,191 -1,460 -1,463 -1,465 -1,467 -1,469 -1,472
Highway Vehicles 0 -1,494 -3,470 -3,073 -6,090 -9,106 -771 -2,948 -5,124 -7,300 -9,476 -11,652
Off-highway Vehicles 0 -54 -18 1,468 1,270 1,071 846 569 291 13 -265 -542
Miscellaneous 0 64 39 -78 -70 -62 -78 -55 -51 -71 -61 -61
Total 0 -4,866 -8,474 -2,478 -3,516 -6,720 1,002 -3,072 -8,170 -10,872 -14,333 -15,900
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -17 -37 -41 -41 -38 -30 -30 -57 -56 -66 -54
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -46 -44 -36 18 5 -20 -61 -61 -69 -69 -73
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 5 9 301 301 302 302 300 298 296 293 291
Other Fuel Combustion 0 -3 -2 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 15
Industrial Processes 0 3 5 -74 -66 -58 -71 -71 -71 -71 -71 -71
Highway Vehicles 0 -4 -8 -7 -15 -22 -2 -7 -12 -17 -23 -28
Off-highway Vehicles 0 -1 0 17 15 13 10 7 3 0 -3 -6
Miscellaneous 0 79 48 -97 -87 -77 -97 -68 -63 -88 -75 -75
Total 0 -7 -12 -3 -5 -9 1 -4 -11 -15 -20 -22
40
Annual Emission Summary (NOx)
Emission Change () 1999 to 2010
Emission Density (Tons) 2010
41
New Hampshire Emission Change (SO2)
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 6,181 4,557 -1,469 -6,427 -2,991 1,363 -1,915 52 -3,886 -7,786 -3,675
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -10,546 -12,118 -10,285 5,401 1,274 -5,666 -13,490 -13,225 -14,907 -14,525 -15,169
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 404 632 -1,999 -1,913 -1,827 -1,741 -1,838 -1,936 -2,033 -2,130 -2,228
Other Fuel Combustion 0 124 301 -2,185 -2,093 -2,001 -1,957 -1,964 -1,972 -1,979 -1,986 -1,993
Industrial Processes 0 18 36 -577 -538 -498 -501 -501 -501 -501 -501 -501
Highway Vehicles 0 -371 -456 -619 -702 -785 -719 -814 -910 -1,005 -1,101 -1,196
Off-highway Vehicles 0 3 22 -4 -33 -62 -107 -213 -318 -424 -529 -635
Miscellaneous 0 18 11 -21 -17 -14 -21 -10 -7 -18 -12 -12
Total 0 -4,168 -7,016 -17,159 -6,322 -6,904 -9,350 -20,746 -18,817 -24,753 -28,571 -25,409
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 15 11 -4 -16 -7 3 -5 0 -10 -19 -9
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -68 -78 -66 35 8 -36 -87 -85 -96 -93 -97
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 9 14 -43 -41 -39 -38 -40 -42 -44 -46 -48
Other Fuel Combustion 0 1 3 -23 -22 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21
Industrial Processes 0 3 5 -83 -77 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72
Highway Vehicles 0 -25 -30 -41 -47 -52 -48 -54 -61 -67 -73 -80
Off-highway Vehicles 0 0 2 0 -4 -7 -12 -23 -35 -46 -58 -69
Miscellaneous 0 84 52 -99 -82 -65 -100 -45 -34 -83 -58 -58
Total 0 -6 -10 -24 -9 -9 -13 -28 -26 -34 -39 -35
42
Annual Emission Summary (SO2)
Emission Change () 1999 to 2010
Emission Density (Tons) 2010
43
New Hampshire Emission Change (PM2.5)
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 364 233 -101 -7 80 127 119 268 -73 -384 -322
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -77 -82 -13 229 203 52 -105 -95 -127 -114 -102
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 9 28 3,316 3,325 3,335 3,345 3,332 3,320 3,307 3,294 3,281
Other Fuel Combustion 0 -2,823 -2,815 1,402 1,406 1,411 1,412 1,298 1,185 1,071 957 844
Industrial Processes 0 249 651 -4,132 -4,101 -4,070 -4,040 -4,042 -4,044 -4,046 -4,048 -4,049
Highway Vehicles 0 -94 -155 -215 -259 -303 269 200 131 63 -6 -75
Off-highway Vehicles 0 -16 -27 -31 -42 -53 -65 -88 -111 -133 -156 -178
Miscellaneous 0 257 -840 -3,211 -3,178 -3,144 -3,213 -3,092 -3,064 -3,176 -3,122 -3,122
Total 0 -2,130 -3,007 -2,986 -2,626 -2,542 -2,114 -2,377 -2,410 -3,114 -3,578 -3,724
Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999)
Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 16 10 -5 0 4 6 5 12 -3 -17 -14
Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 -33 -35 -6 98 87 22 -45 -41 -54 -49 -44
Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 2 6 767 769 772 774 771 768 765 762 759
Other Fuel Combustion 0 -40 -40 20 20 20 20 18 17 15 14 12
Industrial Processes 0 5 12 -79 -78 -78 -77 -77 -77 -77 -77 -77
Highway Vehicles 0 -10 -17 -23 -28 -33 29 22 14 7 -1 -8
Off-highway Vehicles 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -9 -11 -13 -15 -18
Miscellaneous 0 5 -17 -63 -63 -62 -63 -61 -60 -63 -61 -61
Total 0 -10 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -11 -11 -14 -16 -17
44
Annual Emission Summary (PM2.5)
Emission Change () 1999 to 2010
Emission Density (Tons) 2010
45
Northeastern States Emissions Change Summary
Annual Emissions Change (Tons) -- 1999 to 2010 Annual Emissions Change (Tons) -- 1999 to 2010 Annual Emissions Change (Tons) -- 1999 to 2010 Annual Emissions Change (Tons) -- 1999 to 2010 Annual Emissions Change (Tons) -- 1999 to 2010 Annual Emissions Change (Tons) -- 1999 to 2010 Annual Emissions Change (Tons) -- 1999 to 2010
State VOC NOX CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3
Connecticut -63,259 -45,366 -579,262 -39,276 -11,452 -10,434 -1,236
Delaware -16,402 -18,893 -133,397 -57,986 -12,914 -6,878 3,692
DC -10,507 -2,645 -49,353 -5,409 -2,372 -1,960 -1,138
Maine -20,016 -20,517 -174,428 -37,596 -8,256 -10,986 1,362
Maryland -81,787 -121,193 -640,253 -256,752 -35,666 -22,363 2,117
Massachusetts -101,978 -100,440 -1,027,084 -141,120 -71,739 -41,300 113
New Hampshire -36,289 -15,900 -225,286 -25,409 2,755 -3,724 -532
New Jersey -122,004 -85,458 -894,973 -81,048 -85,862 -36,790 -4,238
New York -172,876 -201,559 -2,044,785 -299,965 -93,833 -93,834 -12,003
Pennsylvania -135,492 -206,562 -1,610,715 -647,110 -31,488 -72,228 -115
Rhode Island -28,450 -15,042 -134,794 -2,502 -5,031 -2,542 -559
Vermont -22,105 -10,207 -145,600 -2,747 -5,873 -6,484 -511
Total -811,166 -843,783 -7,659,930 -1,596,921 -361,733 -309,522 -13,046
46
Emission Trends Summary

• All pollutants have decreased since 1999 in
  aggregate across New Hampshire
• NOx and SO2 from Electric Utility Fuel Combustion
  sources show significant decrease over time as a
  result of Acid Rain Program, NOx Budget Trading
  Program and CAIR control implementation
• Onroad emission step increase seen between 2004
  and 2005 is the result of EPAs method change and
  MOVES model integration for estimating onroad
  mobile source emissions

47
Air Quality Trends

• Ozone PM2.5

48
AQ Trends Scope

• Compute, summarize and display ozone and PM2.5
  design value trends in the Northeastern states
  for the period 1999 2010
• Create a spreadsheet database of O3 and PM2.5
  values at each monitoring site for additional
  analyses

49
Design Values

• Ozone
• Annual 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour average
  averaged over three consecutive years
• Current standard 0.075 ppm
• PM2.5 Annual
• Annual arithmetic mean of quarterly means
  averaged over three consecutive years
• Current standard 15 ug/m3
• PM2.5 24-Hour
• Annual 98th percentile of daily averages averaged
  over three consecutive years
• Current standard 35 ug/m3

50
State-Wide Design Value (DV) Trends

• Trends in state-wide maximum DV and average DV
• Max DV Maximum DVs over all valid trend
  monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping
  three year period
• Average DV Average of DVs over all valid trend
  monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping
  three year period
• Compute linear trend via least-squares regression

51
Data Handling Procedures

• O3 design value (DV) for each overlapping
  three-year period starting with 1999-2001 and
  ending with 2008-2010
• DV calculated using annual 4th highest daily max
  8-hr averages and percent of valid observations,
  based on EPA data handling conventions
• Data associated with exceptional events that have
  received EPA concurrence are omitted
• Selection of trend sites require valid DV in at
  least 8 out of 10 three-year periods between 1999
  and 2010

52
Data Handling Procedures

• Annual PM2.5 DV and 24-hr PM2.5 DV for each
  overlapping three-year period starting with
  1999-2001 and ending with 2008-2010
• DV calculations based on EPA data handling
  conventions
• Data extracted from monitors that have a
  non-regulatory monitoring type are omitted
• Selection of trend sites require valid DV in at
  least 8 out of at 10 three-year periods between
  1999 and 2010

53
Trend Calculation

• Trends based on linear least squares fit to
  rolling three year design values (DVs)
• Negative trend indicates improving air quality
• DVs based on each 3-year period 1999-2001,
  2000-2002, 2008-2010
• Notes
• On plots, DVs are for three year period ending in
  year shown (i.e., 2007-2009 DV plotted as 2009
  value)
• Ozone trend values expressed as ppb/year (1,000
  ppb 1 ppm) DVs are plotted as ppm

Trend in units of ppb/year
Scale in units of ppm
54
Max O3 DVs and Trend
55
Average O3 DVs and Trend
56
Ozone Trends by Site in New Hampshire
Monitoring Sites County Trend ppm/yr
3300120044420101 Belknap, NH -0.0015
3300500074420101 Cheshire, NH -0.0012
3300740014420101 Coos, NH -0.0005
3301100204420101 Hillsborough, NH -0.0018
3301900034420101 Sullivan, NH -0.0008

• Note Only monitoring sites meeting data
  completeness criteria listed

57
O3 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites
58
Qualitative Meteorological Trends June-August
Temperature 2003-2010
Blue colors represent the coldest years, red
hottest 2005, 2006, and 2010 most ozone conducive
in Northeast from temperature standpoint
59
Qualitative Meteorological Trends June-August
Precipitation 2003-2010
Red colors represent the driest years, dark green
wettest 2006, 2007, and 2010 most ozone conducive
in Northeast from precipitation standpoint
60
Qualitative Meteorological Trends June-August
Precipitation 2001-2008
Red colors represent the driest years, dark green
wettest 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007 most ozone
conducive in eastern U.S. from precipitation
standpoint
61
Max PM2.5 Annual DVs and Trend
Note Trend is drawn from 2001-2003 DV to
2008-2010 DV. Years 1999 and 2000 do not meet
data completeness requirement for this trend
study.
62
Average PM2.5 Annual DVs and Trend
Note Trend is drawn from 2001-2003 DV to
2008-2010 DV. Years 1999 and 2000 do not meet
data completeness requirement for this trend
study.
63
Max PM2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend
Note Trend is drawn from 2001-2003 DV to
2008-2010 DV. Years 1999 and 2000 do not meet
data completeness requirement for this trend
study.
64
Average PM2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend
Note Trend is drawn from 2001-2003 DV to
2008-2010 DV. Years 1999 and 2000 do not meet
data completeness requirement for this trend
study.
65
PM2.5 Trends by Site in New Hampshire
    Trend ug/m3 per year Trend ug/m3 per year
Monitoring Site County Annual DV 24-Hr DV
330050007 Cheshire -0.25 -0.61
330012004 Belknap N/A -1.58
Note Only monitoring sites meeting data
completeness criteria listed
66
Annual PM2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites
67
24-Hour PM2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites
68
Qualitative Meteorological Trends Annual
Temperature 2003-2010
Blue colors represent the coldest years, red
hottest 2005-2007 and 2010 most PM2.5 conducive
in Northeast from temperature standpoint
69
Qualitative Meteorological TrendsAnnual
Precipitation 2003-2010
Red colors represent the driest years, dark green
wettest 2007 and 2010 most PM2.5 conducive in
Northeast from precipitation standpoint
70
Air Quality Trends Summary

• Average O3 design values have decreased since
  1999 in New Hampshire average PM2.5 design
  values have decreased since 2001 (incomplete data
  in 1999 and 2000)
• O3 design values have decreased since 1999 in
  Boston-Manchester-Portsmouth, (SE), NH, the only
  current O3 non-attainment areas there are no
  current PM2.5 non-attainment areas in New
  Hampshire