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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ready for the Second Review

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Title: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ready for the Second Review


1
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ready for the
Second Review
  • EC-LNV, 23 June 2004
  • Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP),
    RIVM
  • Co-ordinator Responses Working Group

2
Outline
  • Context
  • Description and Status
  • Conceptual Framework
  • Structure and Preliminary results of the Global
    Working Groups
  • Products
  • Second round review

3
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
  • An international scientific assessment of the
    consequences of ecosystem changes for human
    well-being
  • Modeled on the IPCC
  • Providing information requested by
  • Conventions (CBD, CCD, Ramsar, CMS)
  • other partners including the private sector and
    civil society
  • With the goals of
  • stimulating and guiding action to conserve
    ecosystems and enhance their contribution to
    human well-being
  • building capacity to undertake integrated
    ecosystem assessments and to act on their
    information

4
Human Challenge
  • Considerable progress has been made in fighting
    poverty
  • life expectancy increasing
  • infant mortality decreasing
  • agricultural production increasing, etc.
  • Major problems remain
  • 1.2 billion people live on less than 1 per day
  • 1 billion people do not have access to clean
    water
  • More than 2 billion people have no access to
    sanitation
  • 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards
    considered acceptable by WHO
  • 700 million people suffer from indoor air
    pollution due to biomass burning

Source Serageldin, 2002, Science 29654
5
Growing Demand For Ecosystem Services
6
What is a policy-relevant assessment?
  • A social process to bring the findings of science
    to bear on the needs of decision-makers

A scientific assessment applies the judgement of
experts to existing knowledge to provide
scientifically credible answers to policy
relevant questions.
7
MA Design Draws On LessonsFrom Earlier
Assessments
Key success factor from past experiences
Relevant MA design features
1
Political legitimacy
  • Authorized by the UN and 4 conventions CBD, CCD,
    Ramsar, CMS to provide a portion of their
    information/assessment needs
  • Multi-stakeholder governance structure
    intergovernmental and non-governmental, including
    the private sector and civil society
  • Modeled on IPCC procedures and structure
  • Working groups and coordinating/lead authors
  • North-South, regional, disciplinary, gender
    balance
  • Independent review board, 2 rounds of expert and
    government review
  • Policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive
  • Focus strongly shaped by audiences
  • Extensive analysis of user needs
  • Review of draft products against user needs
  • Focus on joint needs of multiple users

2
Scientific credibility
3
Utility
8
MA Organisation
MA Board
Review Board Chairs
Assessment PanelWorking Group Chairs
Support Functions Highly Distributed Secretariat
Outreach Engagement
Chapter Review Editors
Global Assessment Working Groups
9
Timeline
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
10
Current status 1st Round Review
  • 1st Report (MA Conceptual Framework) completed
  • 800 Authors, 85 countries
  • Review Board established
  • Chapters made available for review early January
    reviewers had ten weeks to submit review comments
  • Reviews invited from approximately
  • 750 Expert Reviewers
  • 600 National Focal Points
  • Focal points for the CBD, CCD, Ramsar Convention,
    CMS, and UNFCCC in 180 countries
  • 15 Affiliated Scientific Organizations and
    National Academies of Sciences (ASOs)
  • 6900 Review comments received from approximately
  • 215 Expert reviewers
  • 35 National Focal Points
  • 4 ASOs
  • Draft chapters being revised and available in
    June 2004 for in-depth review

11
Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain
from ecosystems
  • Regulating
  • Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem
    processes
  • climate regulation
  • disease regulation
  • flood regulation

Provisioning Goods produced or provided by
ecosystems food fresh water fuel wood
genetic resources
Cultural Non-material benefits from ecosystems
spiritual recreational aesthetic
inspirational educational
Supporting Services necessary for production of
other ecosystem services Soil formation
Nutrient cycling Primary production
12
Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human
Well-being
Ecosystem Services
Constituents of Well-being
13
Conceptual Framework
14
MA Working Groups
  • Condition Working Group
  • What is the current condition and historical
    trends of ecosystems and their services?
  • What have been the consequences of changes in
    ecosystems for human well-being?
  • Scenario Working Group
  • Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what
    will be the consequences for ecosystems, their
    services, and human well-being?
  • Responses Working Group
  • What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve
    ecosystems?

15
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16
Condition Working Group
  • Introduction
  • Methods, Drivers of change, Biodiversity, HWB and
    Vulnerability
  • Ecosystem Services
  • Analysed by major clusters of ecosystem services
  • Ecosystems
  • Multiple services from various systems.
  • Synthesis

17
Technical chapters examine current status and
trends of ecosystem services across ecosystem
types
  • A) Provisioning
  • Chapter 8. Freshwater
  • Chapter 9. Food
  • Chapter 10. Timber, Fiber, Fuel
  • Chapter 11. Novel Products and Industries from
    Biodiversity
  • B) Supporting and Regulating
  • Chapter 12. Biodiversity regulation of ecosystem
    services
  • Chapter 13. Nutrient cycling
  • Chapter 14. Air quality and climate regulation
  • Chapter 15. Human infectious disease agents
  • Chapter 16. Waste processing and detoxification
  • Chapter 17. Natural Hazard regulation
  • C) Cultural
  • Chapter 18. Cultural and amenity services

18
Then examine the status of different ecosystems
in providing these ecosystem services
  • Ch. 19 Cultivated Systems
  • Ch. 20 Dryland systems
  • Ch. 21 Forest systems
  • Ch. 22 Urban systems
  • Ch. 23 Inland Water systems
  • Ch. 24 Coastal systems
  • Ch. 25 Marine systems
  • Ch. 26 Polar Systems
  • Ch. 27 Mountain systems
  • Ch. 28 Island systems

19
Example questions being answered by the Condition
Working Group
  • What have been the consequences of ecosystem
    degradation for human health?
  • What have been the economic costs and benefits of
    changes to ecosystems?
  • What have been the trends in the supply of
    services from ecosystems?
  • How will current trends play out in the near
    future?
  • How has the capacity of ecosystems to provide
    services changed in the recent past
  • What are the trends in the capacities of
    ecosystems to continue to provide services.

20
A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition
Working Group
  • Ecosystems and Human well-being
  • Although on average human well-being has improved
    in the recent past, human populations are growing
    faster in ecosystems characterised by low
    well-being and low productivity, and there is a
    growing number of people at high risk of adverse
    ecosystem changes.
  • The world is experiencing a worsening trend of
    human suffering and economic losses from natural
    disasters. The capacity of ecosystems to
    regulate such natural disasters has diminished.
  • Flood damage in Europe in 2002 was higher than in
    any previous year.
  • The impacts of declining ecosystem services are
    often shifted from the groups responsible for the
    decline onto others.

21
A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition
Working Group
  • Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
  • The loss of biodiversity has lead to measurable
    reductions in aspects of human well-being.
  • The composition of communities of species, rather
    than numbers of species is most important in
    determining the capacity of the system to provide
    ecosystem services.
  • The integrity of interactions between species is
    critical for the preservation of long-term human
    food production on land and in the sea (e.g.
    pollination and pathogen control).
  • Among plants and vertebrates, the great majority
    of species are declining in distribution,
    population size, or both. We are not likely to
    meet the CBD 2010 target.
  • Overfishing is the dominant factor reducing
    marine biodiversity.
  • Most terrestrial extinctions are predicted to
    occur in tropical forests.

22
A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition
Working Group
  • Ecosystem services
  • There is a slower rate of growth of water use,
    although global per capita water availability is
    falling. Water withdrawal is currently about 10
    of global continental runoff.
  • The growth of world cereal production has slowed
    recently, and the supply of fish as a cheap
    source of protein for developing countries has
    declined. There is an accelerating demand for
    livestock products.
  • Global consumption of fuelwood peaked in the
    1990s, and is now declining, due to the
    availability of alternative fuel sources.
  • Terrestrial ecosystems were a sink for a third of
    historical CO2 emissions and a fifth of 1990s
    emissions. The sink was partially due to
    afforestation/reforestation in Europe and other
    regions.

23
A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition
Working Group
  • Ecosystems
  • Societies in coastal systems are increasingly
    impacted by fisheries failures in coastal and
    marine systems, exacerbated by pollution and
    development.
  • Islands are all coast, and are especially
    vulnerable
  • Climate change is having a real impact on polar
    systems
  • But there is a high coping capacity in Polar
    countries, and so the vulnerability of Polar
    societies is low.
  • The capacity of wetlands to deliver services is
    deteriorating around the world, and is worse than
    any other system type.
  • In Europe, the negative impacts of urban
    settlements on ecosystem services and human
    well-being has become more delayed and dispersed.

24
Main areas of forest degradation, 1980-2000
25
Population density and most populated and
changing cities in 1990-2000
26
Main areas of change in cropland extent
27
Scenario Working Group
What are the consequences for ecosystem services
and human well-being of alternative worlds in
which different approaches to sustainability are
emphasized?
Scenarios W.G. 29 Apr 04
28
Approach to quantifying the MA scenarios
Storylines Global Orchestration, Techno-garden,
etc.
Model Outputs Provisioning Services - Food
(meat, fish, grain production) - Fiber (timber) -
Freshwater (renewable water resources
withdrawals) - Fuel wood (biofuels) Regulating -
Climate regulation (C flux) - Air quality (NOx,
S emissions) Supporting primary production
Links to human wellbeing
AIM Global change
WaterGAP World water resources
IMAGE 2 Global change
Model Inputs Demographic Economic
Bio-physical Technological
IMPACT World food production
29
Chapters of Scenarios Assessment Report
  • Summary for Decision Makers (SDM)
  • Chapter 1 Summary of MA Conceptual Framework
  • Chapter 2 Global scenarios in Historic
    Perspective
  • Chapter 3 Why is it important to include
    Ecology in Global Scenarios
  • Chapter 4 State of the Art in Describing
    Future Changes in Ecosystems
  • Chapter 5 Scenarios for Ecosystem Services
    Rationale and Overview
  • Chapter 6 Methodology for Developing the MA
    Scenarios
  • Chapter 7 Drivers of Change in Ecosystem
    Conditions and Services
  • Chapter 8 Four Scenarios
  • Chapter 9 Changes in Ecosystem Services and
    their Drivers
  • Chapter 10 Biodiversity Across Scenarios
  • Chapter 11 Human Wellbeing Across Scenarios
  • Chapter 12 Synergies and Trade-offs among
    Ecosystem Services
  • Chapter 13 Synthesis Lessons Learned
  • Chapter 14 Synthesis Policy Implications

30
Scenarios Answers to Frequently-Asked Questions
The probability is small of any one scenario is
the real future
The future will be a mix of approaches and
consequences described in the scenarios, plus
events and innovations that have not been
imagined at the time of writing.
None of the scenarios is business as usual,
though all scenarios have elements of the world
as it exists today.
None of the scenarios is a best path or worst
path. Significantly better or worse outcomes
could be developed using different mixes of the
policies and practices addressed in the scenarios.
The scenarios are a menu of choices and their
conse-quences. Readers may use this menu to
consider their priorities, preferences and
choices.
31
Scenarios Selected Draft Headlines
Demand for provisioning services (food, fiber,
water, etc.) increases in all scenarios. This
increases stress on the ecosystems that provide
these services.
By 2050, 10 to 20 of current grassland and
forest land will be lost, mostly due to expansion
of agriculture.
By 2050, water stress increases in arid regions
of Africa and Asia. The number of people living
in water-stressed areas increases 200 to 300.
Globally, the volume of polluted fresh water
increases. Water availability declines, mostly
due to changes in climate and water withdrawal.
Ecosystems currently sequester CO2, but the
future of this service is in doubt. The CO2 sink
decreases in the Order from Strength scenario
32
Scenarios Selected Draft Headlines
Diversity (vascular plants) declines in all
scenarios (most in Order from Strength, least in
TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic). Greatest
losses in warm mixed forest, savanna, scrub,
tropical forest woodland.
Fish populations are lost due to declining water
availability. Differences among scenarios are
minor. Most losses of fishes occur in poor
tropical and subtropical countries.
Our ability to reduce the rate of loss of
species populations by 2010 is in doubt. Two
scenarios (Order from Strength and Global
Orchestration) fail to meet the target. The other
two may, at best, barely meet the target.
33
Responses Working Group
  • Part I Conceptual Framework for Evaluating
    Responses
  • Typology of reponses (legal, institutional,
    economic, technical, ecological)
  • Methodologies to assess responses
  • Uncertainties in the effectiveness of responses
  • Part II Assessment of Past and Current
    Responses
  • Biodiversity
  • Food, fiber, fresh water, fuel
  • Nutrients, waste, climate
  • Cultural services
  • Integrated responses
  • Part III Synthesis Ingredients for successful
    responses
  • Poverty reduction
  • Health
  • Choosing responses
  • Millennium Development Goals

34
Responses WG definition
Responses are defined as the whole range of human
actions, including policies, strategies, and
interventions to address specific issues, needs,
opportunities or problems
35
Chapters of Responses Assessment Report
  • Summary for Decision Makers (SDM)
  • Chapter 1 Summary of MA Conceptual Framework
  • Chapter 2 Typology of Responses
  • Chapter 3 Assessing Responses
  • Chapter 4 Recognizing Uncertainties in
    Evaluating Responses
  • Chapter 5 Biodiversity
  • Chapter 6 Food and cultivated systems
  • Chapter 7 Water
  • Chapter 8 Wood, Fuel wood and Non Wood Forest
    Products
  • Chapter 9 Nutrient Management
  • Chapter 10 Waste Management, Processing and
    Detoxification
  • Chapter 11 Flood and Storm Control
  • Chapter 12 Ecosystems and Vector Borne Disease
    Control
  • Chapter 13 Responses to Climate Change
  • Chapter 14 Cultural Services
  • Chapter 15 Integrated Responses
  • Chapter 16 Consequences and Options for Human
    Health
  • Chapter 17 Consequences of Responses for poverty
    reduction, Ecosystem services and human
    wellbeing
  • Chapter 18 Choosing Responses

36
Some Preliminary Messages
  • Water Significant opportunities to avoid future
    water crises exist in areas of improved design
    and management of water infrastructure, more
    inclusive and integrated governance and more
    efficient resource allocation through market
    based approaches
  • Forests Strategies to improve the impact of
    forest product use on ecosystem health and human
    well being are more affected by decisions taken
    outside the forest sector than those within it.
  • People and Ecosystems Policies and Economic
    Incentives concerning management systems and
    conservation strategies that separate people from
    their environment, freezing both cultures and
    ecosystems have limited success
  • Key challenges in the development of effective
    response strategies arises out of limited
    knowledge on the complexity and variability of
    site-specific factors, which determine outcomes
    and costs

37
A further insight
  • Integrated responses (IR) are gaining in
    importance in both developing and developed
    countries but they have had mixed results.
  • IR are responses that address degradation of
    ecosystem services across a number of systems
    simultaneously, or that also explicitly include
    objectives to enhance human well-being. IR occur
    at different scales and across scales, and use a
    range of instruments for implementation.
    Increasingly they are associated with the
    application of multi-stakeholder processes and
    with decentralization, and they may include
    actors and institutions from government, civil
    society and private sector.
  • Examples include some multi-lateral environmental
    agreements, environmental policy integration
    within national governments, and multi-sectoral
    approaches such as Integrated Coastal Zone
    Management.
  • Although many IR make ambitious claims about
    their likely benefits, in practice the results of
    implementation have been mixed in terms of
    ecological, social and economic impacts.

38
Assessment Outputs Global
  • 2003
  • Ecosystems and Human Well-being A Framework for
    Assessment
  • MA Data Catalog
  • Datasets being used in the MA
  • 2004
  • Edited volume of conference paper Bridging
    Scales and Epistemologies in Multi-scale
    Assessments
  • 2005
  • Technical Assessment Reports (300-800 pages ea.)
    and Summaries for Decision-makers (SDMs)
  • Sub-global Assessment
  • Condition/Trends Assessment
  • Scenario Assessment
  • Response Options Assessment
  • Summary Volume (SDMs of 4 reports)

39
Assessment Outputs Global
  • 2005 (cont)
  • Synthesis Reports (30-50 page)
  • Overarching Synthesis
  • Biodiversity (CBD)
  • Desertification (CCD)
  • Wetlands (Ramsar)
  • Private Sector
  • Health and Ecosystems (tentative)
  • Food and Cultivated Systems (tentative)
  • Board Summary of Key Messages (10 p.)
  • Other Products
  • Reports available over internet (multiple
    language for summary docs)
  • Interactive web-based MA indicator exploration
    capability
  • Partnerships for expanded outreach radio,
    theatre, documentaries, film (tentative)
  • Partnerships for capacity-building/training
    outreach (tentative)

40
Major (expected) achievements of MA
  • Sound baseline information on ecosystems, human
    well-being and their linkages
  • New concepts, approaches, methodology
  • Networking among scientists and institutions
  • Support to Integrated Ecosystem Assessments at
    various levels (local to regional/global)
  • Ultimately and most importantly, support to
    policy development and implementation by various
    audiences (Conventions, National and local
    Governments, Private sector)

41
MA Review Process
Jan 8
Mar 19
June
August
First round of Government and Expert Review
Second round of Government and Expert Review
Release of Findings
2004
2005
42
Comments from 1st review (1)
  • Important dimensions that need strenthening
  • Link to human wellbeing and poverty reduction
  • Valuation, including non-economic valuation
  • Generally, not enough on the economic side
  • Gender analysis largely missing
  • Trends and indicators not evident
  • Distinction between trends and thresholds
    (important for decision making)
  • Thresholds and inertia

43
Comments from 1st review (2)
  • Stronger reference to user needs
  • From review to policy relevant assessment
  • Style of writing/length of some chapters
  • Too theoretical, presentation, weigh and balance
  • Longwinded, difficult to extract main points
  • More clearly need to facilitate the executive
    summaries
  • Tone prescriptive, defeatist, advocacy

44
Rerview page on MA Internet http//www.millenn
iumassessment.org/en/products.chapters.aspx
45
Government review organised through CBD National
Focal PointsFor Netherlands Annemarie van der
HeijdenDirectoraat voor Europese
SamenwerkingDGESemail annemarie-vander.heijde
n_at_minbuza.nlDetails on review process by
Netherlands Government will follow
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