Thinking%20and%20Decision%20Making%20Psychology%202235%20Prof.%20Elke%20Weber%20Segment%202%20Descriptive%20Models

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Thinking and Decision MakingPsychology
2235Prof. Elke WeberSegment 2 Descriptive
Models
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Descriptive Models of Choice

• Decision Making as Constrained Optimization
• Existences and Role of Constraints in
  Optimization Problems
• Implementation of Decision Processes as a
  Constraint
• We, the Decision Makers
• Homo Sapiens as a Constraint and Opportunity
• How do we utilize our strengths and cope with our
  limitations?
• Simple judgment tasks (e.g., frequency or
  likelihood judgments)
• Complex judgment tasks (e.g., impression
  formation)
• Riskless choice tasks (e.g., what car to buy)
• Risky choice tasks (e.g., whether to get life
  insurance)

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Role of Constraints in Optimization

• Operations Research
• Decision Making Objective Function (to be
  optimized) Constraints
• Power of Concept of Optimization
• - guiding principle that provides predictions
  and solutions
• in economics (maximization of expected utility)
  
• and biology (maximization of inclusive
  fitness)
• Example 1 Assigning incoming aircrafts to gates
  
• Example 2 How to choose the best three out of
  600 applicants for an academic
  program

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We, the Decision Maker Constraints and
Opportunities

• Sensation and Perception
• Attention
• Memory needed to produce probable
• Imagination/Creativity outcomes and
  imagine what
• they will feel like
• Emotions
• Learning
• Categorization
• Logical Reasoning
• Computation gt needed for cost-benefit
  calculations
• Needs/Motivation gt Goals gt Utility

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• Herb Simon (1983)
• Three visions of rational choice
• Olympian Model
• heroic (wo)man making comprehensive choices
• in an integrated universe
• Behavioral Model
• organisms with limited computational abilities
• making adaptive choices in a complex, but
  mostly empty
• universe
• Intuitive Model
• organisms using recognition processes that
  capitalize on stored experiences and using
  emotions to focus (limited) attention

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Satisficing(Herb Simon)

• Definition Choosing the first alternative that
  is good enough (as opposed to choosing the
  BEST alternative).
• - A sufficiency criterion rather than an
  optimality one.
• Why Satisfice?
• - Because the cost in time, effort, and demand
  on your analytical capabilities may be too high
  to do otherwise.
• Examples
• Investment
• Job hunting
• Consumer purchases

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Two Processing Systems

• Epstein (1994) and Sloman (1996)
• ? rational system and emotionally-driven
  experiential system
• ? different systems use different processes and
  representations
• (and thus are differentially activated by
• different types of stimuli and information)
• ? two models of mental representation (Bruner,
  1986)
• - propositional thought
• logical, formal, abstract
• - narrative thought
• imagistic, concrete, specific, emotional