A Great Escape: finding our way out of the energy conundrum

1
A Great Escape finding our way out of the energy
conundrum
2
Energy A recap and a preview

• What is the conundrum?
• What is energy why does it matter?
• What has determined todays energy policies
  fuel mix?
• To what degree can these be strategically-altered?
  
• What kinds of energy scenarios are out there?
• What we can doif we want to do something?

3
What is the conundrum?

• Global energy demand will rise in the future
• Conventional energy supplies appear limited in
  the mid-term
• Countries might seek to control sources via
  military power
• Fossil fuels are implicated in climate change
• Fossil fuel consumption must be greatly reduced
  (80?)
• Alternatives will not replace fossil fuels for
  some time
• Takes 40-50 years for new energy sources to
  mature
• What is likely to/going to happen?

4
What is energy why does it matter?

• Everything relies on energy
• Energy is capacity to do work
• Energy transformed into heat can be made to do
  work
• But much is wasted in this process
• We want energy for the services it can provide
• We use least-cost forms of energy to produce work
• But energy quality is not always matched to the
  task
• Low-quality energy (solar) for low-quality task
  (hot water)

5
What has determined todays energy policies
fuel mix?

• Context contingency replacement
• Long-term political economic commitments
• Investment in current sources
• Tradition of geopolitics
• Transfer of money
• Greed
• Path dependency

6
To what degree can these commitments
systematically strategically changed?

• Technological change is driven by both politics
  markets
• Policy change is driven by politics interests
• Social change is driven by habit, custom status
• A crisis focuses mind policy
• But even crisis might not move deeply-embedded
  interests
• Experience with crisis social change is limited
• World War II (reaction)
• Soviet industrialization (planned)
• Marshall Plan (reaction)
• Apollo program (reaction/plan)
• U.S. Synfuels Corporation (plan)

7
Consider the 50-year diffusion of solid-state
consumer electronics

• Transistor was outcome of military-industrial
  research
• Early commercialization in late 1950s fostered
  innovation
• Replacements for bulky energy-intensive vacuum
  tubes
• Moores Law declining size of semiconductors
  circuits
• Older devices adapted (radio, TV, computer)
• New devices invented (cellphone, MP3 players
• Cellphone has changed social practices mores
• How deliberate or strategic was this?

8
Scenario-building can shed some light on trends
strategies

• Energy scenarios
• Business-as-usual
• Techno-explosion
• Techno-stability
• Permaculture
• Decline collapse
• Muddling along

9
Business-as-usual

• Assumes no effort to alter current policies
• Demand grows faster than supply
• Some new sources are put into play
• Geopolitics intervene
• Climate change has differential impacts

10
Business-as-usual
Is BAU feasible, let alone possible?
11
Here are
Notice the theological tones in this diagram
12
Techno-explosion, aka, Dont worry, be happy

• Renewable, low-impact or other sources developed
• Energy demand no longer limited by supply
• Material growth spreads throughout the world
• Distribution of wealth becomes more even
• Rich get richer but so do the poor
• Perhaps even a progressive world state or
  federation
• This requires innovation, infrastucture
  replacement development on a 20th century scale

13
Techno-stability, akaGo with the flow

• New, clean energy sources are developed
  deployed
• Closed-loop recycling low-impact goods emerge
• High wealth, but more even distribution
• Global population stabilizes begins to slow
  decline
• New types of development decentralized politics
• Growth is moderated/limited in the interest of
  stability
• This requires a fairly-high degree of state
  intervention

14
Permaculture, aka,Small is beautiful

• Intense conservation ethos spreads across the
  world
• Accompanied by relatively-moderate technological
  innovation
• Steady-state economy radically-reduced Global
  North consumption
• Massive aid investment to Global South
• Growing reliance on local resources local
  sustainability
• Rise of cultural-political autonomy, pluralism,
  decentralization
• Geopolitics nationalism decline in importance
  as political factors
• More even distribution of wealth, but at a much
  lower level
• This requires massive intervention at a community
  level, which is happening
• But scale of required change is daunting

15
Decline collapse, aka, Thats all, folks!

• Global economy stagnates then goes into decline
• No new energy sources are widely deployed
• Geopolitical struggles for resources break out
• Climate change kicks in with a vengeance
• Severe scarcity leads to general social disorder
• Political units fragment
• Various regions go it alone
• Plausible, but not likely

16
Muddling along

• Gradual deployment of new energy resources
• Declining reliance on fossil fuels
• Differential economic growth across the world
• Uneven distribution of environmental impacts
• Growing but contained geopolitical tensions
• Not BAU but also not radical rapid change

17
What can we doif we want to do something?

• Political social activism mobilization
• Fostering change in social beliefs practices
• Establishing new norms
• More-localized efforts projects
• Documentation communication networks
• Reproduction of successful projects from
  elsewhere