LOCAL PASS A LOCAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE REDUCTION OF PSYCHOACTIVE SUBSTANCE USE

1
LOCAL PASSA LOCAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE
REDUCTION OFPSYCHOACTIVE SUBSTANCE USE

• The Elusiveness of New Drug Trends
• (And What We Can Do About Them, Nevertheless)
• Christian Schneider, Swiss Federal Office of
  Police

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Why Cooperation Is Key

• Widely dispersed knowledge/data
• Lack of objective standard for what constitutes a
  problem
• No solution can address all aspects of a problem

3

• In our view, however, the major factor in the
  failed estimates was () single-outcome
  forecasting. This () reinforced some of the
  worst analytical hazards -- status quo bias and a
  prejudice towards continuity of previous trends.
• NIC Senior Review Panel (1983). Report of
  Intelligence Judgements Preceding Significant
  Historical Failures The Hazards of Single-
  Outcome Forecasting. Washington National
  Intelligence Council 4-5 (emphasis added)

4

• Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find that
  everything he encounters needs pounding.
• Abraham Kaplan (1964). The Conduct of Inquiry
  Methodology for Behavioral Science. San
  Francisco Chandler Publishing 28

5

• All inhabitants, C.S. have a profound
  understanding of a particular set of hyperlocal
  issues and conditions, but that doesnt mean they
  grasp the overall pattern in their city, or
  understand how to fix the problems they inhabit
  (). Each of them is looking at a gigantic (and
  constantly morphing) complex system through a
  soda straw.
• David Kilcullen (2013). Out of the Mountains The
  Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla. Oxford Oxford
  University Press 244 (emphasis added).