Creating a Sustainable Society: Dynamics of Renewable Resources - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Creating a Sustainable Society: Dynamics of Renewable Resources PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 69ca44-OTcxN



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Creating a Sustainable Society: Dynamics of Renewable Resources

Description:

Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: John Sterman Last modified by: John Sterman Created Date: 3/4/2011 12:43:41 PM Document presentation format – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:67
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 77
Provided by: JohnSt88
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Creating a Sustainable Society: Dynamics of Renewable Resources


1
Creating a Sustainable Society Dynamics of
Renewable Resources
John Sterman Jay W. Forrester Professor of
Management and Engineering Systems Director MIT
System Dynamics Group MIT Sloan School of
Management jsterman_at_mit.edu web.mit.edu/jsterman/w
ww
2
Fishbanks Debrief
Winslow Homer, Fishing Boats, Key West (1903)
3
Results from MIT Exec Ed
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
Overshoot and Collapse
Atlantic Swordfish Catch
Pacific Bluefin Tuna Catch
5
16
4
12
3
Thousand Metric Tons/year
Thousand Metric Tons/year
8
2
4
1
0
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
11
North Sea Herring Catch
Mark Wise, Common Fisheries Policy of the
European Community, New York, Methuen, 1984.
12
Consider the Cod
  • Northern or Atlantic Cod
  • Long-lived, slow to mature
  • Once immensely abundant
  • Early fishers (e.g., Basque) claimed fish so
    dense you could walk from Spain to the New World
    on their backs.
  • John Cabot, exploring Newfoundland in 1497, noted
    fish so thick they practically blocked his ship.
  • Harvest 250,000 metric tons/yr through 1950s
  • Vital in feeding the Old World, in the
    development of the New World,
  • and of Massachusetts

13
The Sacred Cod Massachusetts State House
14
Prevailing Mental Model Unlimited Abundance
  • Probably all the great fisheries are
    inexhaustible that is to say that nothing we do
    seriously affects the number of fish.
  • Thomas Henry Huxley, 1883

15
Source US National Marine Fisheries Service
16
Estimated Cod Stocks, Scotian Shelf (000 Metric
Tons)
Estimated Biomass in 1852

1200
Estimated Carrying Capacity (Myers et al. 2001)
800
400
Total Cod Biomass
Total Cod Biomass Age 5
0
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930
1950 1970 1980
Rosenberg et al., Frontiers in Ecology, 2005
17
New England Fisheries - Hard Times
  • I remember catching 5,000 pounds of fish in
    eight nets. Today, it might take up to 80 nets.
    Back then, the average codfish in the spring
    would probably be 25 to 40 pounds. Now, it's 5 to
    8 pounds. - Peter Morse
  • Go down to the docks and talk to the guys down
    there, said John Nelson, chief of the Marine
    Fisheries Division of the state Fish and Game
    Department. Most of them have their boats for
    sale. If they could sell their boats and do
    something else, they would.

Source Clare Kittredge, "N.H. Fish Story Is Not
a Happy One," Boston Globe. February 4, 1990.
18
  • World capture fishery yield 90 million tonnes,
    with first-sale value of 94 billion (2008).
  • Fish sector employs 45m people directly, 180m
    indirectly, supporting about 540m people (8 of
    world population).
  • More than 3b people today get 15 or more of
    their animal protein from fish.
  • World capture fishery production peaked in late
    1990s and is falling.
  • Total fish production growing due to rise in
    aquaculture, but growth rates slowing.
  • Only 15 of fish stocks worldwide considered
    underexploited or moderately exploited, down
    from 40 in 1970s.
  • World population (7b) projected to exceed 9b by
    2050 10b by 2100.

UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
19
The proportion of marine fish stocks estimated
to be underexploited or moderately exploited
declined from 40 percent in the mid-1970s to 15
percent in 2008, whereas the proportion of
overexploited, depleted or recovering stocks
increased from10 percent in 1974 to 32 percent in
2008. The proportion of fully exploited stocks
has remained relatively stable at about 50
percent since the 1970s.
UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
20
Overshoot and Collapse
  • Why the pervasive pattern of overshoot and
    collapse of fisheries?

Where are the leverage points for creating a
sustainable fishery? Where are they not?
Annual fish catch
Time
21
  • Renewable resources
  • can be used no faster than they regenerate.
  • 2. Pollution and wastes
  • can be emitted no faster than natural systems
    can absorb them, recycle them, or render them
    harmless.
  • 3. Nonrenewable resources
  • can be used no faster than renewable substitutes
    can be introduced.

Source Herman Daly (e.g., H. Daly (1990)
Ecological Economics 2, 1).
22
Feedback structure Governing Renewable Resources
23
Fractional Net Recruitment vs. Fish Density
24
Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness
25
Net Recruitment vs. Fish Density
26
Net Recruitment vs. Fish Density
27
Overshoot and Collapse
Simulation Fleet (potential catch) grows 2/year
28
Overshoot and Collapse Examples
  • Carrying capacity of the Earth
  • climate change,
  • ozone layer,
  • ground water,
  • agricultural soils,
  • forests,
  • etc.
  • Borrowing to maintain lifestyle
  • Speculative bubbles (housing, tech stocks,
    art, etc.)
  • Abusing trust and good will
  • Misleading accounting
  • Telephone Marketing
  • False online reviews
  • Drinking

29
The Tragedy of The Commons Garrett Hardin.
Science 1968 1621243-8.
G. Hardin, 1915-2003
Photo 1986
30
The Tragedy of the Commons
Each man is locked into a system that compels
him to increase his herd without limitin a world
that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward
which all men rush, each pursuing his own best
interest
No technical solution can rescue us.
We may well call it the tragedy of the
commons, using the word tragedy as the
philosopher Whitehead used it The essence of
dramatic tragedy is not unhappiness. It resides
in the solemnity of the remorseless working of
things.
31
Common Pool Resources
  • Easily Appropriable (Low barriers to access)
  • Rival (What you take, I cant)
  • EXAMPLES
  • Pastures
  • Fish
  • Forests
  • Irrigation
  • Clean Air Water
  • Climate
  • Roads and Highways
  • Parking Spaces
  • Views
  • Server Resources
  • Consumer Trust in Online Reviews

32
Single Owner vs. Open Access Harvest
33
Causes of Collapse (1)
  • Collapse of the carrying capacity can occur when
    underlying resources are
  • Nonrenewable or
  • Renewable but Consumable or Degradable
  • Collapse is worse with
  • Common pool resources (Tragedy of the Commons)
  • Slow or limited regeneration potential
  • Tipping points created by positive feedbacks
  • Irreversibilities due to e.g.
  • Trophic cascade
  • Evolutionary impacts

34
Causes of Overshoot (2)
Long Delays in Changes in Resource
level (Physical/Biological delay) Measuring
resource level (Perception delay) Understanding
causes (Research delay) Recommending
action (Political/social delay) Implementing
policies (Political/social delay) Policy
impact (Physical/Biological delay) Note
Delays are partly physical and partly political
and social. Those with vested interests in the
status quo often misrepresent the situation to
delay action (e.g. tobacco, lead in gasoline,
toxics in food, climate change).
35
Limits to Privatization
  • Moxnes (1998) Experiment similar to Fishbanks
    but with perfect private property rights no
    Tragedy of Commons
  • 74 of subjects overbuilt fleets average fleet
    60 above optimal
  • Average fish stocks 15 below optimal
  • Average subject wealth 46 below optimal
  • Subjects Fishers, Fishing Resource Managers,
    Researchers

Moxnes, E. (1998) Not Only the Tragedy of the
Commons Misperceptions of Bioeconomics.
Management Science, 44(9)1234-1246.
36
Professor Elinor Ostrom
Winner, 2009 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic
Sciences
37
Elinor Ostroms Optimism
I would rather address the question of how to
enhance the capabilities of those involved to
change the constraining rules of the game to lead
to outcomes other than remorseless tragedies
38
Design Principles for Governing the Commons
  1. Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion
    of external unentitled parties)
  2. Rules adapted to local conditions
  3. Most appropriators can participate in the
    decision-making process
  4. Effective and independent monitoring available
  5. Graduated sanctions available to punish
    appropriators who violate community rules
  6. Conflict resolution mechanisms easily accessible
  7. The self-determination of the community
    recognized by higher-level authorities
  8. For large scale common-pool resources
    organization in the form of multiple layers of
    nested enterprises.

39
Turkey
40
Rule-Base for Alanya
  • List of eligible fishers each September
  • List all usable fishing spots
  • Assign spots by lottery one per fisher
  • September January Each day each fisher moves
    east to next spot
  • January May Each day each fisher moves west to
    next spot

41
Limits to privatization
  • Enforcement
  • Requires effective rule of law to enforce
    property rights.
  • Conflict around equity, fairness.
  • High discount rate (Après moi, le déluge.)
  • Owners may find it in their interest to harvest
    unsustainably
  • Irreducible externalities
  • You can pen up your sheep, but your fish? Air?
    Water? Climate?
  • Dynamic complexity
  • Difficulty of measuring resource stocks,
    consumption, regeneration
  • Long delays in detecting and responding to
    overexploited resource
  • Long recovery delays
  • Nonlinearities, thresholds, side effects

42
Limits to social solutions
  • High discount rate (Après moi, le déluge.)
  • Enforcement
  • Identifying and sanctioning free riders, poachers
  • Setting a sustainable limit
  • Political pressure to discredit the science to
    raise catch limits
  • Eroding Goals (Shifting Baselines syndrome)
  • Dynamic complexity
  • Difficulty of measuring resource stocks,
    replenishment
  • Long delays in detecting and responding to
    overexploited resource
  • Long recovery delays
  • Nonlinearities, thresholds, side effects

43
Preventing Overshoot Where the Leverage Points
Are
  • Earlier effective signal of resource depletion
    and system health
  • Requires sustained, serious scientific effort to
    assess stock levels, ecosystem health, emerging
    threats (e.g., pollution, invasive species,
    climate change),
  • In partnership with appropriators and
    communities,
  • Analogous to disease surveillance systems and
    programs in public health.
  • But
  • Resource level often unobservable
  • Harvest not a reliable indicator of stock levels
  • Natural variability means safe harvest often ltlt
    MSY and current take
  • Difficult to build and maintain trust among
    scientists, regulators, appropriators,
    communities, and other stakeholders, particularly
    when the resource is threatened.

44
Preventing Overshoot Where the Leverage Points
Are
  • Harvest must be limited to regeneration
  • But
  • Enforcement difficult expensive
  • Regeneration rate uncertain, variable, difficult
    to assess
  • To rebuild an already-depleted resource requires
    harvest fall even farther (so regeneration gt
    harvest).
  • Appropriators very clever in finding loopholes in
    particular mechanisms
  • 200 mile territorial limit kept foreign fleets
    out of US/Canada waters domestic fleets expanded
    to fill gap, collapse fishery
  • Fleet size limits are offset by better
    technology, more intensive fishing
  • Limited fishing days offset by better technology,
    more intensive, dangerous fishing
  • Quotas lead to increased bycatch
  • Catch shares lead to industry concentration,
    squeeze out small players
  • If the limit is set too high, the system
    collapses
  • Science opposed by fishery interests, delays or
    prevents implementation
  • Political pressure leads to catch limits set too
    high
  • Catch limits lag stock assessments
  • Normal ecological variability can tip system into
    collapse
  • Shifting Baselines (Eroding Goals)

45
Preventing Overshoot Where the Leverage Points
Are
  • Reduce effectiveness of harvest technology
  • Without factory ships, spotter aircraft, advanced
    gear and other technologies, ship effectiveness
    drops as stocks drop, limiting overfishing.
  • Less effective technology balances the system at
    higher fish population, productivity and profit.
  • Low tech makes it more difficult for free riders
    to evade enforcement curtails evader-enforcer
    arms race
  • But
  • Enforceable regulations required to ensure level
    playing field, fairness across all appropriators
  • Individual appropriators have strong incentive to
    boost harvest productivity through technology
  • Some innovations worsen working conditions (e.g.,
    factory ships), but some enhance safety working
    conditions, but not fully separable from
    catch-enhancing technology. Goal conflict.

46
Impact of Technology
  • Other Technologies
  • Factory Ships
  • Sonar, Radar, GPS
  • Spotter Aircraft
  • Weather Forecasts
  • Remote Sensing
  • Trawls
  • Bottom Drags
  • Dredging
  • Purse Seines
  • Long Lines (gt50 miles)

Source http//www.erin.utoronto.ca/w3env100y/en
v/ENV100/hum/cod.htm
47
Factory Trawlers
48
Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness
Signal of problem detected
49
Successful Management of the Commons
  • Renewable Resources
  • State Fish and Game licensing programs
  • Some fisheries, e.g., Maine Lobsters
  • National and state parks, conservation zones,
    land trusts
  • International Whaling Commission (effectiveness
    limited)
  • CITES (effectiveness limited)
  • Pollutants
  • CFCs and Stratospheric Ozone (Montreal Protocol,
    as amended)
  • Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act Limits on other
    pollutants
  • US SO2 cap and trade program
  • Self-Regulation in commercial groups, guilds
  • Mozarella di Bufala in Italy
  • Mangos in Brasil
  • Government regulation/oversight of privatization
  • Workplace health and safety regs (e.g.,
    prohibition on child labor)
  • Traffic signals, speed limits, seat belts
  • Mandatory childhood immunizations
  • Public funding for police, fire protection,
    schools, defense, etc.
  • Do-not-call list for telemarketing

50
Extra Slides
51
(No Transcript)
52
(No Transcript)
53
(No Transcript)
54
(No Transcript)
55
(No Transcript)
56
(No Transcript)
57
(No Transcript)
58
Overshoot and Collapse
UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
59
Stable or Growingso far
UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
60
UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
61
UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
62
UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
63
UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
64
Catch per Capita Falling
  • Wild Catch/capita stagnated in 1970, now falling
    at accelerating rate
  • Compensated (to date) by rising aquaculture
    production
  • Aquaculture growth slowing worldwide, faces
    limits
  • Food supply (e.g., 5 Kg oceanic fish converted to
    meal to yield 1 Kg shrimp)
  • Pollution (feces, BOD)
  • Toxics (e.g., dioxin accumulation)
  • Disease (requires antibiotics)
  • Coastal erosion, sedimentation
  • Genetic impact on wild stocks (escapees)

UN FAO, State of the World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 2010. http//www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1
820e/i1820e00.htm
65
Fisheries Essential to World Food Security
  • Undernourishment describes the status of
    persons whose food intake regularly provides less
    than their minimum energy requirements
  • Grain production not keeping pace with population
    in many regions
  • More grain devoted to meat production to increase
    protein

Number of undernourished people in the world
UN FAO, 2010. The State of Food Insecurity in
the World. http//www.fao.org/publications/sofi/e
n/
66
Where did the big fish go?
  • The canneries were so efficient at processing
    the lobsters that they were soon forced to work
    with smaller lobsters.
  • In 1860, James P. Baxter recalled that four to
    five pound lobsters were considered small and the
    two pound lobsters were being discarded as not
    worth the effort to pick the meat for canning.
  • Only twenty years later, the canneries were
    stuffing meat from half-pound lobsters into the
    tins for processing.
  • Gulf Of Maine Aquarium

67
Challenge the Boundary
  • Conventional fishery models suggest stocks will
    recover if total catch is reduced below
    recruitment.
  • This does not appear to be happening in many
    depleted fisheries.
  • Why?

68
Evolution and Ecology
  • Conventional theory
  • Ecological dynamics Fast
  • Evolutionary dynamics Slow
  • Modern View
  • Evolution often occurs on the same time scale as
    ecological epidemiological processes central to
    public health and human welfare
  • Antibiotic resistant Staph, Strep, TB, STDs, etc.
  • Treatment resistant HIV
  • Pesticide resistant insects crop pathogens
  • Size maturation rate of fish

69
(No Transcript)
70
(No Transcript)
71
(No Transcript)
72
(No Transcript)
73
Minimum Permitted Mesh Size

74
Event level the Headlines
Fishing banned at Georges Bank Local fishermen
fear overcrowding
Limits may follow as cod diminishes in Gulf of
Maine
Codfish depleted off Maine Restrictions
could Hurt local fishermen
Hearing casts fishery as sinking ship
Loopholes found In fishing rules
Canadas Gunboat Diplomacy Chrétien to
protect Atlantic fish stocks
Lobstermen Snag record 38m pounds
N.E. lawmakers seek boat buyback ideas
Feds approve boat buyback program Hope to thin
fishing fleet with 2m in incentives
75
What Happened?
What caused the overshoot and collapse? Who was
responsible?
76
Rebranding Trash Fish
  • Slimehead Orange Roughy
  • Patagonian Toothfish Chilean Sea Bass
  • Whores eggs Maine Sea Urchin
  • Mud Crabs Peekytoe Crab

77
Managing the Commons
Dietz, T., E. Ostrom, P. Stern (2003) The
Struggle to Manage the Commons, Science, 302 (12
Dec), 1910-1917
78
Present Value of the Fishery
  • The maximization of the present value of the
    fishery by employing an optimum dynamic strategy
    need not but can imply extinctions of the
    fishery. Does this mean that economists would
    recommend the extinction of fish species under
    appropriate market conditions? Social decisions
    take place in a multiple-objective or
    multiple-criterion framework of which economic
    net benefits are but one criterion. The
    responsible economist would generate information
    on the present values of the fishery under
    different schemes of management. If the highest
    present value of net benefits appears to be
    generated by a pattern of fishing that eventually
    would exterminate the fish stock, this would be
    stated, along with the information on other
    schemes that would preserve a viable fish stock.
    The decision makers then would understand the
    tradeoffs involved and could proceed with their
    decision.

Source Charles W. Howe, "The Management of
Fisheries," in Natural Resource Economics, John
Wiley Sons, 1979.
About PowerShow.com