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Title: Using External Environmental Scanning and Forecasting to Improve Strategic Planning


1
Using External Environmental Scanning and
Forecasting to Improve Strategic Planning
  • Joel D. Lapin

2
Planning
  • A formalized procedure by which decisions are
    made and integrated in organizations.

3
Strategic Planning
  • A systematic and ongoing activity that an
    organization uses to anticipate and respond to
    major decisions facing it during a three- to
    five-year period beyond the present.
  • An outside-in approach that answers the
    question what do we do?

4
Strategic Planning
  • Characteristics
  • Systematic and ongoing
  • Anticipates and responds
  • Three to five years beyond present
  • Focuses on external environment
  • Deals with big issues
  • Spans organizational boundaries
  • Deals with uncertainty
  • Values expert judgment

5
Operational Planning
  • An inside-out approach that answers the
    question how and when we do it?
  • Characteristics
  • One- to two-year timeframe
  • Internally focused
  • Determined by strategic plan
  • Deals with micro issues
  • Tied to organizational units
  • Tied to budget/spending
  • Relatively certain
  • Highly participatory

6
Components of a Strategic Plan
  • Vision An ideal, credible, attractive, and
    unique future image for an organization.
  • Mission A general statement of the fundamental
    purpose of an organization and the foundation for
    developing the organizational goals and
    objectives.
  • Goals A broad statement that describes ultimate
    ends and achievements for an organization.

7
External Environmental Scanning and Forecasting
  • A kind of radar to scan the world systematically
    and signal the new, the unexpected, the major,
    and the minor. (Morrison and Held, 1989)

8
External Environmental Scanning and Forecasting
  • Scanning involves the following
  • Detecting changes in the external environment
  • Defining the potential threats or opportunities
    and potential changes for the organization caused
    by these changes
  • Promoting a futures orientation in leadership in
    the organization
  • Alerting leadership to trends and emerging issues
    and their future direction

9
Environmental Scanners Role
  • When scanning ask if the items
  • Represent events, trends, developments, or ideas
    never before encountered
  • Contradict previous assumptions or beliefs about
    what seems to be happening
  • Represent new twists to old arguments
  • Can be linked to other abstracts previously
    written or seen
  • Have implications for the long-range program or
    management of the organization
  • Contain polls or forecasts
  • Morrison and Held, 1989

10
Purpose of Scanning
  • The purpose of external environmental scanning
    and forecasting is to enable an organization to
    develop or change a strategic plan based upon
    external trends.

11
External Environmental Scanning and Forecasting
  • The purpose of environmental scanning is to give
    an organization a competitive edge

12
When the rate of change outside exceeds the rate
of change inside, the end is in sight.
Jack Welch
13
You Scan to Plan . . .
Not Plan to Scan.
14
External Environmental Scanning and Forecasting
and Its Role in a Strategic Plan
Vision Future Image What Should We Be?
Mission (Fundamental Purpose) Who Are We? What Do
We Do? For Whom Do We Do It? Why Do We Do It?
External Environmental Scanning Forecasting
Which Results in Trend Statements and a List of
Core Trends
Institutional Goals What should the college do to
address the most consequential trends in its
external environment? Goals determined after
full and honest discussion of SWOT (strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, threats) Select X
number of manageable achievable goals to be
accomplished with X year(s)
Develop Operational Plan Administration Instructio
n Student Services Institutional Adv.
Recommendations (Monitor External Environment)
15
Trend
  • A statement of the general direction of change
    usually gradual, long-term changein the forces
    shaping the future of an organization, region,
    nation, or society in general. Trends are often
    longitudinal in that they have been observed over
    a time frame.
  • --Morrison and Held, 1989

16
Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16
Employment Employment Change Change
2006 2016 Number Percent Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2
Registered nurses 2,505 3,092 587 23.5 Associate degree
Retail salespersons 4,477 5,034 557 12.4 Short-term on-the-job training
Customer service representatives 2,202 2,747 545 24.8 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Combined food preparation serving workers, including fast food 2,503 2,955 452 18.1 Short-term on-the-job training
Office clerks, general 3,200 3,604 404 12.6 Short-term on-the-job training
Personal home care aides 767 1,156 389 50.6 Short-term on-the-job training
Home health aides 787 1,171 384 48.7 Short-term on-the-job training
Postsecondary teachers 1,672 2,054 382 22.9 Doctoral degree
Janitors cleaners, except maids housekeeping cleaners 2,387 2,732 345 14.5 Short-term on-the-job training
Nursing aides, orderlies, attendants 1,447 1,711 264 18.2 Postsecondary vocational award
Source US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016 November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
17
Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16
Employment Employment Change Change
2006 2016 Number Percent Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2
Bookkeeping, accounting, auditing clerks 2,114 2,377 264 12.5 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Waiters Waitresses 2,361 2,615 255 10.8 Short-term on-the-job training
Child care workers 1,388 1,636 248 17.8 Short-term on-the-job training
Executive secretaries administrative assistants 1,618 1,857 239 14.8 Work experience in a related occupation
Computer software engineers, applications 507 733 226 44.6 Bachelor's degree
Accountants auditors 1,274 1,500 226 17.7 Bachelor's degree
Landscaping groundskeeping workers 1,220 1,441 221 18.1 Short-term on-the-job training
Elementary school teachers, except special education 1,540 1,749 209 13.6 Bachelor's degree
Receptionists information clerks 1,173 1,375 202 17.2 Short-term on-the-job training
Truck drivers, heavy tractor-trailer 1,860 2,053 193 10.4 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Source US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
18
Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16 Table 3. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2006-16
Employment Employment Change Change
2006 2016 Number Percent Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2
Maids housekeeping cleaners 1,470 1,656 186 12.7 Short-term on-the-job training
Security guards 1,040 1,216 175 16.9 Short-term on-the-job training
Carpenters 1,462 1,612 150 10.3 Long-term on-the-job training
Management analysts 678 827 149 21.9 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work
Medical assistants 417 565 148 35.4 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Computer systems analysts 504 650 146 29.0 Bachelor's degree
Maintenance repair workers, general 1,391 1,5331 140 10.1 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Network systems data communications analysts 262 402 140 53.4 Bachelor's degree
Food preparation workers 902 1,040 138 15.3 Short-term on-the-job training
Teacher assistants 1,312 1,449 137 10.4 Short-term on-the-job training
Source US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
19
Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16
Employment Employment Change Change Change
2006 2016 Number Number Percent Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2
Network systems and data communications analysts 262 402 140 140 53.4 Bachelor's degree
Personal home care aides 767 1,156 389 389 50.6 Short-term on-the-job training
Home health aides 787 1,171 384 384 48.7 Short-term on-the-job training
Computer software engineers, applications 507 733 226 226 44.6 Bachelor's degree
Veterinary technologists technicians 71 100 29 29 41.0 Associate degree
Personal finance advisors 176 248 72 72 41.0 Bachelor's degree
Makeup artists, theatrical performance 2 3 1 1 39.8 Postsecondary vocational award
Medical assistants 417 565 148 148 35.4 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Veterinarians 62 84 22 22 35.0 First professional degree
Substance abuse behavioral disorder counselors 83 112 29 29 34.3 Bachelor's degree
Source US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
20
Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16
Employment Employment Change Change
2006 2016 Number Percent Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2
Skin care specialists 38 51 13 34.3 Postsecondary vocational award
Financial analysts 221 295 75 33.8 Bachelor's degree
Social human service assistants 339 453 114 33.6 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Gaming surveillance officers gaming investigators 9 12 3 33.6 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Physical therapist assistants 60 80 20 32.4 Associate degree
Pharmacy technicians 285 376 91 32.0 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Forensic science technicians 13 17 4 30.7 Bachelor's degree
Dental hygienists 167 217 50 30.1 Associate degree
Mental health counselors 100 130 30 30.0 Master's degree
Mental health substance abuse social workers 122 159 37 29.9 Master's degree
Source US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
21
Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16 Table 2. Fastest growing occupations, 2006-16
Employment Employment Change Change
2006 2016 Number Percent Most significant source of postsecondary education or training2
Marriage family therapists 25 32 7 29.8 Master's degree
Dental assistants 280 362 82 29.2 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Computer systems analysts 504 650 146 29.0 Bachelor's degree
Database administrators 119 154 34 28.6 Bachelor's degree
Computer software engineers, system software 350 449 99 28.2 Bachelor's degree
Gaming sports book writers runners 18 24 5 28.0 Short-term on-the-job training
Environmental science protection technicians, including health 36 47 10 28.0 Associate degree
Manicurists pedicurists 78 100 22 27.6 Postsecondary vocational award
Physical therapists 173 220 47 27.1 Master's degree
Physician assistants 66 83 18 27.0 Master's degree
Source US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational employment projections to 2016, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review
22
Buying Time
  • Busy People Becoming Night Owls to Get Chores Done

Article by Eric L. Wee,Washington Post, December
19, 1994
23
Identifying and Defining a Trend
  • What is true about futures research in general
    and was validated in the scans is that trends do
    not speak for themselves. They do not jump out
    of a pile of data. Identifying and defining a
    trend, testing it, and evaluating it is a
    partially creative and partially empirical
    process. The statement of a trend and its
    direction evolves out of accumulated information.
    The way in which that statement can be framed
    can be modified to fit the circumstances, to fit
    the client(s) needs, and to be salient, uniform,
    and in a style compatible with other trends.
  • --Joseph F. Coates

24
Event
  • A one-time or non-repeatable phenomenon usually
    visible or dramatic, which has a short-term
    effect on a system. An event focuses attention
    of an occurrence at one point in time. In
    contrast with a trend, an event can be viewed as
    a cross-sectional phenomenon.
  • --Morrison and Held, 1989

25
Emerging Issue
  • A potential controversy that arises out of a
    trend or event, which may require some form of
    response.
  • -- Morrison and Held, 1989

26
Wild Card
  • A change in the external environment having a low
    probability of occurrence, but an inordinately
    high impact if it does.
  • --Rockfellow, 1994

27
Scanning Abstract Form
Author and Title Source Taxonomy or Change
area Identify the change or the most important
idea that indicates change Probability of
occurring in the next 1 2 years ____low ____
moderate ___high Probability of occurring in the
next 3 5 years ____low ____ moderate
___high Implications for communities served How
might the change affect people and groups in
communities the college serves? Potential
consequences/impact on the community ___ minor
___ moderate ___major ___ unknown at this
time Implications for college How might the
change affect the colleges programs, student
services, faculty and staff, funding,
etc.? Potential consequences/impact on the
college ___ minor ___ moderate ___major ___
unknown at this time What might the change mean
for future learning skills, knowledge,
behaviors?
28
Joliet Junior College Joliet, IL
  • January 2008

29
Core Trends
  • Competition Trend 5Institutions that have the
    capacity to offer online courses will likely
    capture a larger share of the enrollment market,
    particularly those that are creative at creating
    pedagogies and provide evidence of environments
    that enhance learning.
  • Education Trend 7Evidence as to how prepared
    high school students are for college is mixed.
    Two trends are evident in this area (1) There is
    evidence of an increasing gap between high school
    and college expectations for learning and
    curriculum, and (2) Many students defined as
    underprepared have attended community colleges
    and there is no evidence to suggest this will not
    continue.

30
Core Trends
  • Labor Force Trend 5The largest number of jobs
    will be created in health care related
    occupations over the next three to five years.
  • Demographics Trend 2Between 2005 and 2015, the
    minority population in the JJC district is
    projected to grow by 58.2 from 173,382 to
    274,350 and will represent 30.7 of the
    districts population.
  • Demographic Trend 5---The population for the
    Joliet Junior College District 525 is predicted
    to increase from 868,631 in 2006 to 1,088,146 by
    2001, which reflects an increase of 25.3.

31
Core Trends
  • Demographics Trend 1Between 2000 and 2030, Will
    Countys population is expected to increase from
    502,584 to 1,076,446 residents (114 increase)
  • Economics Trend 9Through 2014, Will County will
    experience a decrease in its manufacturing
    economy. The economy will shift to professional
    and business services, financial activities,
    transportation and warehousing, education, health
    care and hospitality.

32
Core Trends
  • Economics Trend 11---The U.S., by far, consumes
    more resources per person than any other large
    and developed country in the world. Growing
    regions with available natural resources and
    space, like the JJC district, will likely want to
    incorporate sustainable efforts in planning and
    development.
  • Politics Trend 8---State commitments to fund
    higher education in the near future will be much
    less reliable than in the past. The revenue
    picture is difficult to predict, particularly in
    Illinois. Still, community college funding
    structures are built upon historical assumptions
    about revenue generation and will likely need to
    be changed.

33
Core Trends
  • Social Values Trend 6---The necessity for a
    post-secondary education for success in the
    workplace will continue to become more prevalent
    over the next 3-5 years or longer, especially
    among the growing Hispanic population and other
    underrepresented groups.

34
Core SWOT Analysis
  • Strengths
  • Low tuition and reasonable cost
  • Growth in District
  • Strong JJC Foundation
  • Weaknesses
  • Lack of online classes
  • Class scheduling

35
Core SWOT Analysis
  • Opportunities
  • Partnerships
  • Distance education
  • Growth
  • Threats
  • Competition
  • Lower/lack of state and federal funding
  • Underprepared students

36
Joliet Junior College Strategic PlanFebruary 26,
2008
  • Vision
  • Joliet Junior College , the nations first
    public community college, will be a leader in
    teaching and learning, and the first choice for
    postsecondary education.
  • Mission
  • Joliet Junior College enriches peoples lives
    through affordable, accessible and quality
    programs and services. The College provides
    transfer and career preparation, training and
    workforce development, and a lifetime of learning
    to the diverse community it serves.

37
Strategic Goals
  1. Improve student success with an emphasis on
    enrollment, retention, graduation, and transfer
    rates and effective teaching strategies and
    learning outcomes. (Trends Competition 5,
    Education 7, Demographics 12,5, Social Values
    6).
  2. Increase institutional sustainability with an
    emphasis on obtaining necessary resources,
    state-of-the heart facilities, professional
    development, and environmental stewardship.
    (Trends Politics 8, Economics 11, Demographics
    1,5).

38
Strategic Goals
  • 3. Increase and improve partnerships with
    organizations that support the colleges mission.
    (Trends all core trends).
  • 4. Utilize technology strategically to advance
    teaching and learning, expand online and
    alternative delivery methods, and increase
    effective administrative and support services.
    (Trends Competition 5 Labor Force 5
    Demographics 1,2, 5 Economics 9,11 Politics 8
    Social Values 6).

39
Strategic Goals
  • 5. Improve the success of minority,
    underrepresented, and underprepared student
    populations in addition to closing the gap
    between high school and college performance.
    (Trends Social Values 6, Demographics 2,
    Education 7).
  • 6. Develop programs that anticipate and respond
    to labor market demand. (Trends Labor Force 5,
    Economics 9, Social Values 6).

40
North Harris Montgomery Community College District
  • The Woodlands, TX

41
Workforce DevelopmentCore Trends
  • Advanced Manufacturing 2---Growth in advanced
    manufacturing related to the oil and gas industry
    is continuing in Harris and Montgomery Counties
    to support the exploration and production efforts
    in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico area.

42
Competitive Education 8
  • Accessibility of classes, at times, locations and
    formats attractive to the student, will be a
    major factor in the continued growth of
    for-profit education, although this growth has
    moderated somewhat in the past five years, due
    partially to legal/political challenges
    for-profit companies are facing.

43
Demographics 4
  • While the Texas population will increase in the
    future, the Hispanic population will evidence the
    fastest growth among identified groups, and
    Anglos will evidence the lowest growth among
    identified groups.

44
Demographics 7
  • The percentage of economically disadvantaged
    students in the 11 school districts served by the
    NHMCCD service area has consistently increased
    for the last five years, and is expected to
    continue for the next three to five years.

45
Economics 9
  • The result of expansion activities of the Port of
    Houston and the Houston Airport System will have
    an increasing economic impact on the Gulf Coast
    region as additional cargo and passenger traffic,
    both internationally and domestically, is
    expected to grow for the next three to five years.

46
Education 9
  • In the next three to five years, career and
    technical programs at the secondary level will be
    recognized as critical for postsecondary
    preparation and become a priority for closing the
    nations skills gap.

47
Labor Force 5
  • Healthcare occupations are expected to produce
    the greatest number of jobs and have the most
    significant rate of growth over the next three to
    five years in the Gulf Coast region.

48
Labor Force 13
  • In the next three to five years, the emerging
    labor force will have fewer applied skills such
    as critical thinking and teamwork as well as
    deficits in reading, writing and math.

49
Politics 3
  • Funds available from taxes will continue to
    diminish, continuing the general trend of the
    college district becoming more and more dependent
    on its authority to levy tax and to charge
    tuition and fees.

50
Social Values and Lifestyles 12
  • Boomers will retire like no other generation
    before them by continuing to work, having
    multiple careers and pursuing educational and
    leisure opportunities.

51
Core SWOT
  • Strengths
  • Cost effective
  • Diverse and quality programs offered
  • Colleges attempt to serve needs of surrounding
    community
  • Weaknesses
  • Current facilities inadequate for expansion and
    growth
  • Ineffective marketing
  • Technological capabilities
  • Internal competition among colleges

52
Core SWOT
  • Opportunities
  • Collaboration with business, industry and
    education
  • Growing population and changing demographics
  • Outreach to new and underserved communities
  • Area tax valuation continues to grow at a strong
    rate
  • Threats
  • Decreased state funding
  • Increased competition with other institutions
  • Changing political climate
  • Widening gap between high school graduates and
    college readiness

53
NHMCCD Workforce Development Strategic Plan
2008-2011
  • June, 2007

54
Vision
  • Creating Careers
  • Building Partnerships
  • Delivering Solutions
  • Strengthening Communities

55
Mission
  • Deliver accessible, world-class education to
    develop a skilled workforce for a dynamic local,
    regional and global economy.

56
Strategic Goals
  • 1. Increase and strengthen partnerships with new
    and underserved businesses, industries,
    educational institutions and other workforce
    entities.
  • (Addresses core trends statements Advanced
    Manufacturing 2, Economics 9, Labor Force
    5, 13)
  • 2. Increase the use of alternative instructional
    delivery to anticipate and meet student and
    employer needs.
  • (Addresses core trend statements Competitive
    Education 8, Social Values 12, Labor Force
    13, Education 9)

57
Strategic Goals
  • 3. Increase outreach programs and services with
    special emphasis on connecting underserved and
    under-represented populations to career pathways
    and transitions.
  • (Addresses core trend statements Demographics
    4,and 7, Social Values and Lifestyles 12,
    Education 9)
  • 4. Obtain funds to support and invest in new and
    revised programs, facilities, faculty and
    technologies.
  • (Addresses core trend statements Advanced
    Manufacturing 2, Economics 9, Education 9,
    Labor Force 5 and 13, Politics 3)

58
Strategic Goals
  • 5. Create effective communication and marketing
    for all workforce programs and services.
  • (Addresses all core trend statements)
  • 6. Enhance the quality, accessibility and
    effectiveness of student support programs and
    services.
  • (Addresses core trend statements Competitive
    Education 8, Demographics 4 and 7, Social
    Values and Lifestyles 12, Labor Force 13,
    Education 9)

59
  • Note Although trend statements regarding
    technology were not specifically chosen during
    the core selection process, they are addressed in
    one or more strategic goals.

60
State of WashingtonState Board for Community and
Technical CollegesWorkforce Education Council
  • Environmental Scanning
  • Summary Trends Statements

61
Technology Trends
  • Open sourcing of computer software will lead to
    increasing levels of shared programming and
    on-going improvements.
  • Computer search engines will shift from
    retrospective (information that is presently
    available) to prospective (information that is
    not presently not available) search and will
    impact our future online experience.
  • The rapid development and demand for wireless
    multi-tasked compact personal life-style
    communication devices, providing connectivity
    services 24x7x365 worldwide, will continue to
    accelerate academic, economic and technological
    challenges as well as opportunities, for
    educating our workforce in a highly competitive
    global marketplace.

62
Technology Trends
  • Amidst the ever-changing and rapid advancements
    in technology the ability of institutions to pay
    will remain a critical and constant challenge.
  • Organizations will be increasingly challenged to
    adopt and adapt to technological advances in
    three primary areas development/training demand
    information technology roles and hiring and in
    the general field of information technology.
  • Demands for high speed and broad band use of the
    Internet will be ever increasing.

63
Technology Trends
  • Integrating technology, especially radio
    frequency identification (RFID), into business
    organizations will largely determine their
    prosperity and their ability to survive in a
    competitive international marketplace.
  • The fields of robotics, nanotechnology and
    biotechnology (with nanotechnology superseding
    biotechnology) are in their infancy and will
    continue to impact those producing, using and
    affected by these rapidly evolving technologies.

64
Technology Trends
  • Protecting information from hacker attacks in a
    culture of open access will continue to be a
    challenge for business, government and schools
    across the nation and around the world.
  • Technology is the impetus for on-going
    institutional change with respect to the delivery
    of educational services, driven by the respective
    needs of students, business, industry and the
    community.

65
Economic Trends
  • The gap between the wealthy and those at the
    middle and bottom levels of wealth will continue
    growing nationally and in Washington State.
  • Present and future employment growth in
    Washington State will remain concentrated in the
    service sectors including health care, business
    and professional services, and high-tech.
  • Many construction trade occupations, agricultural
    jobs, and some manufacturing-related positions
    (i.e., luxury boat building, food processing,
    winery operations, pulp/paper/chemicals, and
    diversified aerospace) will require personnel for
    projected labor shortages.

66
Economic Trends
  • The Internet and new emerging wireless
    technologies will have a major effect on
    Washington States economic infrastructure in
    manufacturing, service delivery and consumption
    because expected response time is shorter,
    operations may become more efficient, and
    communications are virtually instantaneous.
  • In the future, there will be less of a national
    competitive economy and more of a global
    competitive economy composed of regional
    economies like those of Spokane, Puget Sound, and
    Southwestern Washington State.

67
Economic Trends
  • With Washington States economy projected to stay
    strong, the shift toward service occupations and
    high-tech manufacturing with high skill
    requirements is expected to continue.
  • Washington States unemployment rate will
    continue to be an average of 1 higher than the
    national average due to
  • Aerospace employment lagging compared to the
    national business cycle
  • Seasonal nature of states agricultural sector
  • High rural unemployment rates, including
    traditionally timber-dependent areas.

68
Economic Trends
  • Washington State will continue leading the nation
    in new business creation, while increasingly
    heavy venture capital investment in the state may
    help mitigate the states historically high
    ranking in firm terminations.
  • The importance of information is driving the
    flattening of organizational structures where
    subject matter expertise is increasingly
    essential and this flattening is expected to
    increase in the future.
  • Housing density will increase in urban centers,
    but not necessarily provide affordable homes.
  • American society continues to be unable to
    respond to the challenge of providing adequate
    health care for its citizens.

69
Emerging Issue
  • Alternative energy industries will prosper if
    Washington State supports effective Economic
    Development incentives.

70
Political Trends
  • Projected demographic changes in the period 2005
    2009 will require higher education to compete
    for government resources requested for
    corrections, medical assistance, long-term care
    and K-12 education.
  • Increasing public awareness and urgency around
    environmental conservation and stewardship will
    have an impact on government regulation, business
    decisions and consumer choices, especially
    choices in energy, fuel and organic foods.

71
Political Trends
  • Continued union disaffiliation will change
    organized labors large political influence in
    Washington State which will also weaken what has
    historically been a strong partner for community
    colleges across the state.
  • Health care provision and funding will continue
    to be a major focus of policy makers.
  • Increasing social and economic barriers will
    restrict access to and from Washington State of
    all transportation, goods, services and citizens.

72
Social, Values, and Lifestyles Trends
  • Internet overuse (i.e., excessive use of chat
    rooms, web surfing, instant messaging, gaming,
    gambling, etc.) is expected to increase over the
    next 3 5 years, affecting ones ability to
    successfully manage ones life.
  • From 1999 2004, roughly 35 of recently
    completing high school students in Washington
    State did not continue into higher education and
    this percentage is expected to remain stable over
    the next 3 5 years.
  • Consumers will continue over the next 3 5 years
    to expect more for less when purchasing goods and
    services (e.g., minimal defects, large variety,
    timely delivery/availability, and prompt
    follow-up and support services).

73
Social, Values, and Lifestyles Trends
  • The number and respective nature of the Ballot
    Initiatives being submitted in Washington State
    will remain high over the next 3 5 years,
    suggesting that low level of trust for Washington
    State government will continue.
  • The number of children who at one point in their
    childhood will live in a single parent family
    household (currently 19) will continue to
    increase over the next 3 5 years.
  • In the next 3 5 years, the number of
    individuals working during their retirement years
    will increase.

74
Social, Values, and Lifestyles Trends
  • Over the next 3 5 years, the number of children
    raised in the foster care system, emerging from
    that system without independent living skills and
    the ability to cope with the demands presented by
    organizations like higher-education institutions
    is expected to increase.
  • Generation Y (born between 1981 and 1995)
    members learning preferences include emphasizing
    teamwork, experiential activities, structure, and
    use of technology. The number of Gen Y students
    will increase over the next 3 5 years.

75
Social, Values, and Lifestyles Trends
  • Over the next 3 5 years, more people will
    become mini-entrepreneurs by starting small and
    micro businesses, becoming freelancers, starting
    web-businesses, blogs, and other types of small,
    entrepreneurial enterprises.
  • Washington State leads the US in terms of the
    percentage of people who say they have no
    religion (although many believe in a god) and
    this trend is expected to continue over the next
    3 5 years.
  • Over the next 3 5 years, participation in new
    forms of voluntary associations online will
    increase rapidly, i.e., e-communities.

76
Social, Values, and Lifestyles Trends
  • Crime rates overall are declining and will
    continue to decline over the next 3 5 years.
  • Incarceration rates will continue to rise over
    the next 3 5 years in Washington State.
  • Due to changes in policy, drug crimes are
    increasingly being handled in drug court where
    the corrective-behavior plan involves
    intervention from the health care system rather
    than the criminal justice system. This is
    expected to increase over the next 3 5 years.

77
Social, Values, and Lifestyles Trends
  • Obesity is pervasive in society and the level of
    obesity will increase over the next 3 5 years.
  • Beginning in 2000, three unique generations in
    the workplace and community and technical college
    system are present. Each generation has very
    unique values, expectations, wants, desires, etc.
    and these may clash in the workplace and
    classroom. This trend will continue over the next
    3 5 years.

78
Demographic Trends
  • Between 2005 and 2010, the number of poor people
    in Washington State is projected to exponentially
    increase to more than 20 of the population or
    1,329,963 people.
  • Between 2005 and 2030, the demand for health care
    and related services, especially geriatrics, will
    increase and the costs for these services will
    continue to rise dramatically.
  • Population in the state of Washington will
    continue to rise 100,000 a year between 2005 and
    2010 when the population is projected to reach
    6,639,000. From 2010 2030 it is expected to
    slow to a 1.2 percent growth or approximately
    75,000 per year.

79
Demographic Trends
  • Between 2005 and 2030, the Washington State
    population, especially those under 25 years of
    age, will become increasingly more diverse and
    the largest increases in ethnic groups will be
    Hispanics (242,863 to 487,703), those of two or
    more races (100,769 to 240,281), and
    Asian/Pacific Islanders (129,988 to 171,598).
  • Between 2000 and 2010, the growth in the number
    of households in the state of Washington will
    grow proportionally to the increase in the
    general population, and will not evidence
    significant increases or decreases.

80
Educational Competition Trends
  • Four year institutions will continue to be a key
    competitor with community and technical colleges.
  • Community and technical colleges are becoming
    more vulnerable to competition from for-profit
    institutions.
  • Corporations do not recognize community and
    technical colleges as a preferred source for
    training.

81
Educational Competition Trends
  • Online training and education continues to expand
    rapidly.
  • Colleges are spending more resources and time on
    transitional and developmental education rather
    than advancing workforce skills which ultimately
    compromises achievement of economic development
    goals.
  • Military students with their rich tuition dollars
    will be a target of opportunity for postsecondary
    training and education providers, including
    private career schools.

82
Education Trends
  • Employers demand for highly educated employees,
    with certifications and college degrees, will
    continue to increase through 2012.
  • A widening gap will continue to exist between low
    literacy and non-native speaking workers entering
    our system and the level of skills required by
    our employers.
  • As more students enter community and technical
    colleges with a technology-enriched background,
    the need for and expectation of
    technology-enhanced learning experiences will
    increase.

83
Education Trends
  • There is a continuing disparity among K-12
    student racial/ethnic groups in academic
    achievement levels and the disparity will
    continue into the near future.
  • There is an increased emphasis on high
    expectations and accountability in K 12 public
    education.
  • Government and philanthropic interests are
    increasing their attention to and support for
    pre-K/early learning.
  • Student education costs are increasing faster
    than inflation.

84
Education Trends
  • There is an increasing gap between the demand for
    math, science and engineering employees and the
    ability of the Washington States educational
    system to produce math, science and engineering
    graduates.
  • There is a continuing disparity among
    postsecondary racial and ethnic groups in
    measures of student outcomes, such as
    certificates and degrees awarded, which is not
    expected to improve in the near future.
  • There is increasing attention to accountability
    in post-secondary education.

85
Labor Force Trends
  • There will continue to be an across-the-board
    supply-demand gap for workers who have attained
    at least one year of college but less than
    bachelors degree.
  • There is a supply-demand mismatch for workers at
    the long preparation level (Bachelors or higher)
    as described below
  • Shortage in Engineering, Software, Architecture,
    Computer Science, Medical, Human Services, and
    Protective Services.
  • Balanced in Research, Scientists, and Technical.
  • Surplus in Educators, Business and Management,
    Editors, Writers, Performers, Administrative,
    Clerical, Legal, Agriculture, Construction
    (management), Production, Transportation, Sales
    and Service.

86
Labor Force Trends
  • While some work will be off-shored to other
    countries for cost savings, other work that is
    sensitive to customer satisfaction and requires
    other necessary factors, will remain in or return
    to the U.S.
  • Between 2002 and 2012 it is expected that 25 of
    new jobs will require a bachelors degree and 38
    of new jobs will require short-term preparation,
    some college, or an associates degree.

87
Labor Force Trends
  • Occupational groups expecting greatest employment
    growth for workers with 1-3 years of college in
    the next five years are
  • Health care practitioners and support 8
  • Personal service workers and managers 8
  • Computer engineers, programmers, and support 13.

88
Labor Force Trends
  • Through 2030 the Washington labor force will have
    greater participation by older workers, people of
    color, women, and people with disabilities.
  • The new workforce is requiring more education,
    different skill sets, and presents new
    challenges.
  • Some workers groups (e.g. people with
    disabilities, youth in their 20s, African
    American men) are not fully participating in the
    current labor force.
  • During the period of 2000 2010, the state labor
    force will grow at a projected rate of 1.5
    reflecting a slower growth rate in the past.

89
Washington State Board for Community and
Technical CollegesOlympia, WA
  • Workforce Education Council
  • August 16, 2006

90
Core Trends
  • Technology (Trend 10)
  • Technology is the impetus for on-going
    institutional change with respect to the delivery
    of educational services, driven by the respective
    needs of students, business, industry and the
    community.
  • Economics (Trend 5)
  • In the future, there will be less of a national
    competitive economy and more of a global
    competitive economy composed of regional
    economics like those of Spokane, Puget Sound, and
    Southwestern Washington State.

91
Core Trends
  • Politics (Trend 1)
  • Projected demographic changes in the period 2005
    2009 will require higher education to compete
    for government resources requested for
    corrections, medical assistance, long-term care
    and K-12 education.
  • Social Values and Lifestyles (Trend 16)
  • Beginning in 2000, three unique generations in
    the workplace and community and technical college
    system are present. Each generation has very
    unique values, expectations, wants, desires, etc.
    and these may clash in the workplace and
    classroom. This trend will continue over the next
    3 5 years.

92
Core Trends
  • Demographics (Trend 1, 4)
  • Between 2005 and 2010, the number of poor people
    in Washington State is projected to exponentially
    increase to more than 20 of the population or
    1,329,963 people.
  • Between 2005 and 2030, the Washington State
    population, especially those under 25 years of
    age, will become increasingly more diverse and
    the largest increases in ethnic groups will be
    Hispanics (242,863 to 487,703), those of two or
    more races (100,789 to 240,281), and
    Asian/Pacific Islanders (129,988 to 171,598).

93
Core Trends
  • Educational Competition (Trends 4, 5)
  • Online training and education continues to expand
    rapidly.
  • Colleges are spending more resources and time on
    transitional and developmental education rather
    than advancing workforce skills which ultimately
    compromises achievement of economic development
    goals.

94
Core Trends
  • Education (Trends 2, 9)
  • A widening gap will continue to exist between low
    literacy and non-native speaking workers entering
    our system and the level of skills required by
    our employees.
  • There is a continuing disparity among
    postsecondary racial and ethnic groups in
    measures of student outcomes, such as
    certificates and degrees awarded, which is not
    expected to improve in the near future.
  • Labor Force (Trend 6)
  • Through 2030 the Washington labor force will have
    greater participation by older workers, people of
    color, woman, and people with disabilities.

95
SWOT Analysis
  • Strengths
  • Cost effective
  • Serve diversity of state (regions) and people
    (students)
  • Relationships/collaborations
  • Weaknesses
  • Lack of student success and retention
  • Responding to the challenge of ongoing changes in
    instructional and technological methodologies

96
SWOT Analysis
  • Opportunities
  • Economic development, collaborations, and
    partnerships
  • Legislative support
  • Growing and changing economics and demographics
  • Threats
  • Competition from other public and private
    institutions
  • Lack of prepared students

97
WEC Executive CommitteeDraft Strategic Plan
  • Vision
  • WEC will be the statewide leader in building a
    dynamic and skilled workforce in a global
    economy.
  • Mission
  • WEC promotes collaborative partnerships that
    support innovative educational opportunities for
    a diverse workforce which increases Washingtons
    competitiveness.

98
WEC Executive CommitteeDraft Strategic Plan
  • Goals
  • Develop and implement a framework for career
    pathways that create access and lifelong learning
    opportunities.
  • Promote and support faculty development for the
    use of multiple teaching strategies and
    technologies.
  • Advocate and support funding initiatives that
    address workforce education and cyclical
    fluctuations in the economy.
  • Support student success with special emphasis on
    under-represented populations.
  • Create and share resources and innovative
    practices between and among CTCs to anticipate
    and respond to industry needs.

99
WA Workforce Education Council Activities and
Timelines for Completion
  1. Select project manager and select date for
    workshop (July 14, 2005)
  2. Conduct workshop one---Intro to Environmental
    Scanning and Strategic Planning (October 21,
    2005)
  3. Scanning underway (November 4, 2005)

100
WA Workforce Education Council Activities and
Timelines for Completion
  • 4. Completed scanning abstract forms, materials
    and draft list of trends and emerging issues
    submitted for review (March 19, 2006)
  • 5. Written review of scanned materials completed
    by Lapin shared with project manager (April 7,
    2006)
  • 6. Work session with each scan team and review
    interviews with community leaders (May 5, 2006)

101
WA Workforce Education Council Activities and
Timelines for Completion
  • 7. Interviews with community leaders conducted
    and responses shared (June 9, 2006)
  • 8. Final list of trends and emerging issues
    submitted to Lapin for changes and editing ( June
    30, 2006)
  • 9. Final list of trends sent to community
    representatives for review (July 14, 2006)

102
WA Workforce Education Council Activities and
Timelines for Completion
  • 10. Preliminary SWOT analysis completed and
    organizational values identified (July 28, 2006)
  • 11. Conduct workshop for community
    representatives and college planners to identify
    implications of trends (August 18, 2006)
  • 12. Conduct workshop to develop strategic plan
    (September 15, 2006)
  • 13. Present strategic plan to external and
    internal community for feedback. Make final
    appropriate changes (October 13, 2006)

103
Benefits of the Strategic Planning Process
  • Since the process is participatory it attracts
    more support and legitimacy
  • Leaders and participants are satisfied that the
    process made for a better strategic plan and
    provided a road map for the future.
  • Leaders and participants believe the strategic
    plan will improve the basis for decision making.
  • Colleges benefit themselves and the communities
    they serve by concentrating planning from the
    outside-in rather than the inside-out.

104
Benefits of the Strategic Planning Process
  • Colleges involve their communities in their
    planning process and provide their trends to the
    community.
  • Colleges become more active partners in community
    and economic development efforts.
  • Colleges are better able to develop and implement
    operational plans to carry out their strategic
    plan.

105
Benefits of the Strategic Planning Process
  • Colleges generally receive recognition and praise
    for their process and strategic plan from
    accrediting agencies.

106
Contact Information
  • Joel D. Lapin
  • Professor of Sociology
  • The Community College of Baltimore County
  • 800 S. Rolling Rd.
  • Baltimore, MD 21228
  • E-mail jlapin_at_ccbcmd.edu
  • Phone 443-840-4568
  • FAX 443-840-5321
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