The ACCEDI Environmental Scanning Program Forecasting the Future of the Collegiate Conference and Ev

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The ACCED-I Environmental Scanning
ProgramForecasting the Future of the Collegiate
Conference and Events Industry

• Dr. Edward G. Simpson, Jr.
• Distinguished Public Service Fellow, Institute of
  Higher Education
• University of Georgia
• CarolAnn Paul
• Chair, ACCED-I Environmental Scanning Program
  Project Team

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The pertinent question is not how to do things
right but how to find the right things to do, and
to concentrate resources and efforts on them.
Peter Drucker
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The Role of Strategic Planning
Strategic planning is an effort to make this
years decisions more intelligent by looking
toward the probable future and coupling the
decisions to an overall institutional strategy.
To have a strategy is to put your own
intelligence, foresight, and will in charge
instead of outside forces and disordered
concerns. The priorities are always there. The
question is who selects them.
Source Academic Strategy, George Keller
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The Objective

• The central objective of strategic planning is
  to position the institution so that it can shape
  and exploit its environment. For this reason it
  is important to understand what exists within
  that environment that can be used or influenced
  to create the strategies that a strategic plan
  must consider.

Rowley, Lujan, Dolence p. 3.
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How Thats Accomplished Environmental Scanning
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Why Environmental Scanning?

• Be proactive rather than reactive
• Anticipate the needs of clients
• Identify opportunities and threats
• Pinpoint strengths and weaknesses more
  effectively
• Gain advantages over your competition
• Build credibility
• Broaden your base of strategic alliances

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Environmental Scanning
The purpose of environmental scanning is to
serve as an early warning system by alerting
institutional leaders to potentially significant
external developments in their early stages. The
earlier the warning, the more lead time we have
to plan for the implication of these changes.
Consequently, the scope of environmental scanning
is broad -- a full circle sweep to pick up any
signal of change in the external environment.
http//horizon.unc.edu/courses/papers/JBChapter.as
p
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LEVELS OF SCANNING OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTBY
INDIVIDUALS
PASSIVE SCANNING
ACTIVE SCANNING
DIRECTED SCANNING
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LEVELS OF SCANNING OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
BY INDIVIDUALS
PASSIVE SCANNING

• A natural, almost unconscious response to
  incoming information
• Information sources may be randomly selected
• No particular scanning criteria or a very
  personal criteria (a short-term orientation may
  predominate)
• Often a decision-makers primary source of
  information about the external environment,
  thus, many organizational decisions may be
  driven by random input

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LEVELS OF SCANNING OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
BY INDIVIDUALS
ACTIVE SCANNING

• A proactive searching and screening of
  information at a high level of concentration
• Information sources are selected for their
  expected yield in knowledge of the external
  environment
• Scanning criteria focus on implications for the
  business or organization (a futures orientation
  predominates)
• Organizational decisions are less driven by
  random input and more focused on alternative
  scenarios for the future of the business or
  organization
• Note Day-to-day, environmental scanners use
  active scanning techniques. Directed scanning is
  usually assigned with the goal of acquiring
  additional, specific information needed for
  decision-making.

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LEVELS OF SCANNING OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
BY INDIVIDUALS
DIRECTED SCANNING

• Scanning focused on a specific trend, issue, or
  event (usually surfaced in active scanning)
• Information sources are selected for their
  expected yield in relation to a specific trend,
  issue, or event
• A way to increasingly lessen the randomness of
  information at play in organizational
  decision-making
• Note Day-to-day, environmental scanners use
  active scanning techniques. Directed scanning is
  usually assigned with the goal of acquiring
  additional, specific information needed for
  decision-making.

• A natural, almost unconscious response to
  incoming information
• Information sources may be randomly selected
• No particular scanning criteria or a very
  personal criteria (a short-term orientation may
  predominate)
• Often a decision-makers primary source of
  information about the external environment,
  thus, many organizational decisions may be
  driven by random input

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The Simple Definition

• Broad instead of narrow
• Systematic and continuous
• Active rather than passive
• Discerns clues about how the world is changing

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Scanning Questions

• Always ask
• What are the implicationsgood and badfor my
  organization and for me?
• What are the probable futures?
• What are the probable future scenarios?
• What should I/we be doing now given these
  conditions?

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Environmental Scanning Categories

• Political/Regulatory
• Economic
• Technological
• Social

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WHERE DO YOU LOOK FOR THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES AND
TRENDS?

• Trade Publications
• Listservs
• Government Demographic Reports
• Web-sites
• Meetings and Conferences

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(Examples)USEFUL WEB-SITES FOR TRACKING TRENDS
AND PROJECTING SCENARIOS
World Future Societywww.wfs.org Oxford
Analyticawww.oxan.com American
Demographicswww.inside.com Convention
Southwww.conventionsouth.com Convention Industry
Councilwww.conventionindustry.org
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(Examples)USEFUL WEB-SITES FOR TRACKING TRENDS
AND PROJECTING SCENARIOS
The Chronicle of Higher Educationwww.chronicle.co
m NewspapersThe New York Timeswww.nytimes.com US
A Todaywww.usatoday.com Horizon www.horizon.unc.e
du On The Horizonwww.emeraldinsight.com/oth.htm
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What ACCED-I Leadership is Scanning
Trade Publications Convene, Meeting News, RCMA
Magazine, Chronicle, Facilities Event
Management Magazine, Events, Successful Meetings,
Event Solutions, On-Campus Hospitality,
Mid-Atlantic Events Magazine Higher Education
Chronicle, University of Continuing Education
Association Newsletter Financial/Economy
Kiplingers Reports, Fortune General Business
Newsweek, Business News Newspapers USA Today,
New York Times Web-Sites Meetings Conferences
ASAE, CHEMA, RCMA, NACAS, NACUBO, VenueMasters
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ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING
Monitoring follows scanning. The purpose of
monitoring is to ascertain the past and possible
future directions of trends or to enable us to
estimate the strength of indicators of potential
events.
http//horizon.unc.edu/courses/papers/JBChapter.as
p
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Definitions

• A TREND
• Consists of data that usually represents gradual
  and extended change in such areas as social
  issues, technology, politics, and economics. It
  can be local, regional, national, or
  international in character and may offer
  scenarios for the future by identifying possible
  events and issues.
• AN EVENT
• Is any confirmable happening that, by its
  occurrence, definitely alters the future in
  relation to the past.
• AN EMERGING ISSUE
• Emanates from a trend or event and often requires
  a response.
• Morrison, Renfro, and Boucher
  (1984) Simpson, McGinty, and Morrison (1987)

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Examples of Trends Affecting Higher Education
Which Require Monitoring

• Technology
• Part-Time Faculty
• Distance Education
• Dot-Com Companies
• Virtual University
• Accountability
• Financial Innovation
• Changes in Affirmative Action
• For-Profit Universities

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Ten Meeting Trends for 2003

• Trend 1 Technology rules
• Trend 2 Meetings are strategic and higher level
• Trend 3 Shrinking meeting budgets
• Trend 4 Intense pricing pressure
• Trend 5 Shorter and more cost efficient meetings

• Trend 6 Websites excel in developing new
  business
• Trend 7 Booking pace shows improvement
• Trend 8 Private functions scaled back
• Trend 9 Videoconferencing demand nearly
  non-existent
• Trend 10 Fewer professional meeting planners

Ten Meeting Trends for 2003 Perspectives
Express Hotelier Caterer http//www.expresshotel
ierandcaterer.com/20030203/perspective3.shtm
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Examples of Trends Affecting the Collegiate
Conference and Events Industry

• Clients are increasingly coming to expect the
  latest technology for no or minimum cost.
• The economy is driving conference planners to
  plan more regional rather than national
  programs.
• Increased competition from hotels (private
  sector) which are eliminating attrition clauses
  and penalties for cancellations.
• Economy is forcing clients to secure less
  expensive conference venues.

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Identified Trends Which ACCED-I is Currently
Monitoring

• Rising tuition costs and the resulting challenge
  to conference departments to produce increasing
  amounts of revenue.
• Demographics which indicate that the pool of
  college-age students is shrinking and in a
  steadily-growing downward trend.
• Changes in student housing, including demands for
  increasing customization of rooms and privacy, as
  well as a growing trend of parents purchasing
  condos or townhomes for their college-age
  students rather than utilize university-owned
  housing.