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The ACCEDI Environmental Scanning Program Forecasting the Future of the Collegiate Conference and Ev

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Title: The ACCEDI Environmental Scanning Program Forecasting the Future of the Collegiate Conference and Ev


1
The ACCED-I Environmental Scanning
ProgramForecasting the Future of the Collegiate
Conference and Events Industry
  • Dr. Edward G. Simpson, Jr.
  • Distinguished Public Service Fellow, Institute of
    Higher Education
  • University of Georgia
  • CarolAnn Paul
  • Chair, ACCED-I Environmental Scanning Program
    Project Team

2
The pertinent question is not how to do things
right but how to find the right things to do, and
to concentrate resources and efforts on them.
Peter Drucker
3
The Role of Strategic Planning
Strategic planning is an effort to make this
years decisions more intelligent by looking
toward the probable future and coupling the
decisions to an overall institutional strategy.
To have a strategy is to put your own
intelligence, foresight, and will in charge
instead of outside forces and disordered
concerns. The priorities are always there. The
question is who selects them.
Source Academic Strategy, George Keller
4
The Objective
  • The central objective of strategic planning is
    to position the institution so that it can shape
    and exploit its environment. For this reason it
    is important to understand what exists within
    that environment that can be used or influenced
    to create the strategies that a strategic plan
    must consider.

Rowley, Lujan, Dolence p. 3.
5
How Thats Accomplished Environmental Scanning
6
Why Environmental Scanning?
  • Be proactive rather than reactive
  • Anticipate the needs of clients
  • Identify opportunities and threats
  • Pinpoint strengths and weaknesses more
    effectively
  • Gain advantages over your competition
  • Build credibility
  • Broaden your base of strategic alliances

7
Environmental Scanning
The purpose of environmental scanning is to
serve as an early warning system by alerting
institutional leaders to potentially significant
external developments in their early stages. The
earlier the warning, the more lead time we have
to plan for the implication of these changes.
Consequently, the scope of environmental scanning
is broad -- a full circle sweep to pick up any
signal of change in the external environment.
http//horizon.unc.edu/courses/papers/JBChapter.as
p
8
LEVELS OF SCANNING OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTBY
INDIVIDUALS
PASSIVE SCANNING
ACTIVE SCANNING
DIRECTED SCANNING
9
LEVELS OF SCANNING OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
BY INDIVIDUALS
PASSIVE SCANNING
  • A natural, almost unconscious response to
    incoming information
  • Information sources may be randomly selected
  • No particular scanning criteria or a very
    personal criteria (a short-term orientation may
    predominate)
  • Often a decision-makers primary source of
    information about the external environment,
    thus, many organizational decisions may be
    driven by random input

10
LEVELS OF SCANNING OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
BY INDIVIDUALS
ACTIVE SCANNING
  • A proactive searching and screening of
    information at a high level of concentration
  • Information sources are selected for their
    expected yield in knowledge of the external
    environment
  • Scanning criteria focus on implications for the
    business or organization (a futures orientation
    predominates)
  • Organizational decisions are less driven by
    random input and more focused on alternative
    scenarios for the future of the business or
    organization
  • Note Day-to-day, environmental scanners use
    active scanning techniques. Directed scanning is
    usually assigned with the goal of acquiring
    additional, specific information needed for
    decision-making.

11
LEVELS OF SCANNING OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
BY INDIVIDUALS
DIRECTED SCANNING
  • Scanning focused on a specific trend, issue, or
    event (usually surfaced in active scanning)
  • Information sources are selected for their
    expected yield in relation to a specific trend,
    issue, or event
  • A way to increasingly lessen the randomness of
    information at play in organizational
    decision-making
  • Note Day-to-day, environmental scanners use
    active scanning techniques. Directed scanning is
    usually assigned with the goal of acquiring
    additional, specific information needed for
    decision-making.
  • A natural, almost unconscious response to
    incoming information
  • Information sources may be randomly selected
  • No particular scanning criteria or a very
    personal criteria (a short-term orientation may
    predominate)
  • Often a decision-makers primary source of
    information about the external environment,
    thus, many organizational decisions may be
    driven by random input

12
The Simple Definition
  • Broad instead of narrow
  • Systematic and continuous
  • Active rather than passive
  • Discerns clues about how the world is changing

13
Scanning Questions
  • Always ask
  • What are the implicationsgood and badfor my
    organization and for me?
  • What are the probable futures?
  • What are the probable future scenarios?
  • What should I/we be doing now given these
    conditions?

14
Environmental Scanning Categories
  • Political/Regulatory
  • Economic
  • Technological
  • Social

15
WHERE DO YOU LOOK FOR THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES AND
TRENDS?
  • Trade Publications
  • Listservs
  • Government Demographic Reports
  • Web-sites
  • Meetings and Conferences

16
(Examples)USEFUL WEB-SITES FOR TRACKING TRENDS
AND PROJECTING SCENARIOS
World Future Societywww.wfs.org Oxford
Analyticawww.oxan.com American
Demographicswww.inside.com Convention
Southwww.conventionsouth.com Convention Industry
Councilwww.conventionindustry.org
17
(Examples)USEFUL WEB-SITES FOR TRACKING TRENDS
AND PROJECTING SCENARIOS
The Chronicle of Higher Educationwww.chronicle.co
m NewspapersThe New York Timeswww.nytimes.com US
A Todaywww.usatoday.com Horizon www.horizon.unc.e
du On The Horizonwww.emeraldinsight.com/oth.htm
18
What ACCED-I Leadership is Scanning
Trade Publications Convene, Meeting News, RCMA
Magazine, Chronicle, Facilities Event
Management Magazine, Events, Successful Meetings,
Event Solutions, On-Campus Hospitality,
Mid-Atlantic Events Magazine Higher Education
Chronicle, University of Continuing Education
Association Newsletter Financial/Economy
Kiplingers Reports, Fortune General Business
Newsweek, Business News Newspapers USA Today,
New York Times Web-Sites Meetings Conferences
ASAE, CHEMA, RCMA, NACAS, NACUBO, VenueMasters
19
(No Transcript)
20
ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING
Monitoring follows scanning. The purpose of
monitoring is to ascertain the past and possible
future directions of trends or to enable us to
estimate the strength of indicators of potential
events.
http//horizon.unc.edu/courses/papers/JBChapter.as
p
21
Definitions
  • A TREND
  • Consists of data that usually represents gradual
    and extended change in such areas as social
    issues, technology, politics, and economics. It
    can be local, regional, national, or
    international in character and may offer
    scenarios for the future by identifying possible
    events and issues.
  • AN EVENT
  • Is any confirmable happening that, by its
    occurrence, definitely alters the future in
    relation to the past.
  • AN EMERGING ISSUE
  • Emanates from a trend or event and often requires
    a response.
  • Morrison, Renfro, and Boucher
    (1984) Simpson, McGinty, and Morrison (1987)

22
Examples of Trends Affecting Higher Education
Which Require Monitoring
  • Technology
  • Part-Time Faculty
  • Distance Education
  • Dot-Com Companies
  • Virtual University
  • Accountability
  • Financial Innovation
  • Changes in Affirmative Action
  • For-Profit Universities

23
Ten Meeting Trends for 2003
  • Trend 1 Technology rules
  • Trend 2 Meetings are strategic and higher level
  • Trend 3 Shrinking meeting budgets
  • Trend 4 Intense pricing pressure
  • Trend 5 Shorter and more cost efficient meetings
  • Trend 6 Websites excel in developing new
    business
  • Trend 7 Booking pace shows improvement
  • Trend 8 Private functions scaled back
  • Trend 9 Videoconferencing demand nearly
    non-existent
  • Trend 10 Fewer professional meeting planners

Ten Meeting Trends for 2003 Perspectives
Express Hotelier Caterer http//www.expresshotel
ierandcaterer.com/20030203/perspective3.shtm
24
Examples of Trends Affecting the Collegiate
Conference and Events Industry
  • Clients are increasingly coming to expect the
    latest technology for no or minimum cost.
  • The economy is driving conference planners to
    plan more regional rather than national
    programs.
  • Increased competition from hotels (private
    sector) which are eliminating attrition clauses
    and penalties for cancellations.
  • Economy is forcing clients to secure less
    expensive conference venues.

25
Identified Trends Which ACCED-I is Currently
Monitoring
  • Rising tuition costs and the resulting challenge
    to conference departments to produce increasing
    amounts of revenue.
  • Demographics which indicate that the pool of
    college-age students is shrinking and in a
    steadily-growing downward trend.
  • Changes in student housing, including demands for
    increasing customization of rooms and privacy, as
    well as a growing trend of parents purchasing
    condos or townhomes for their college-age
    students rather than utilize university-owned
    housing.
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