Protection of the Ozone Layer - Montreal Protocol: Themes for 1998

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Protection of the Ozone Layer - Montreal
ProtocolThemes for 1998

• A Presentation Kit
• UNEP
• Ozone Secretariat

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The Montreal Protocol is Working

• Scientific assessment shows that the abundance of
  ozone-depleting chemicals in the lower atmosphere
  is declining.
• However, abundance of Halons is increasing due to
  releases from banks.
• Production of CFCS and Halons has declined by 86
  in the last ten years.
• The ozone depletion in Antarctic, Arctic and mid
  latitudes is continuing, due to past emissions of
  CFCs. It will peak in the next few years.

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CFCs Production and Consumption Trends
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Halons Production and Consumption Trends
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Halons in the Atmosphere
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Developing Countries

• Ten years ago, the share of the developing
  countries and the Russian Federation (then USSR)
  in the total production of CFCs was 15. In 1996,
  it is 80. For Halons it was 7 ten years ago and
  100 now.

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CFCs and Halons Production by Developing Countries
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Ozone Depletion

• The ozone depletion in Antarctic, Arctic and mid
  latitudes is continuing, due to past emissions of
  CFCs. It will peak in the next few years.
• Given full Implementation of the Montreal
  Protocol by all countries, the Ozone Layer will
  recover by the middle of the 21st century.

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The Multilateral Fund

• The Multilateral Fund of the Protocol has been
  very successful. It has so far disbursed over
  768 million to more than 100 developing countries
  to phase out more than half of their CFC
  consumption. It will continue assistance till the
  phase out is completed.

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The Multilateral Ozone Fund
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CEIT Countries

• The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is
  assisting the Russian Federation and other
  Eastern and Central Europe countries to implement
  the Montreal Protocol.
• It has so far sanctioned US 111 million to 11
  countries.
• The countries that have been assisted Belarus,
  Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland,
  the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia and
  Ukraine.
• Consumption of CFCs in these countries has
  decreased from 150,000 tonnes in 1986 to about
  20,000 tonnes in 1996. It is hoped that with the
  support from GEF, these countries will complete
  their phase-out by the year 2000.

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If there were no Protocol, .....

• The ozone depletion by the year 2050 would have
  been at least 50 in the mid latitudes in the
  northern half of the earth, 70 in the mid
  latitudes of the south, about 10 times larger
  than today. The UV-B radiation would have doubled
  in the north and quadrupled in the south in the
  same places. The ozone depleting chemicals in the
  atmosphere would have been 5 times larger.
• The implications of this increase would have been
  horrendous - 19 million more cases of non-
  melanoma cancer, 1.5 million cases of melanoma
  cancer, 130 million more cases of eye cataracts

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Without Montreal Protocol ...
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Challenges

• There are many challenges to be overcome before
  we celebrate.
• Many parties are yet to ratify the Amendments to
  the Protocol, which included controls on more
  chemicals. 166 parties ratified the Protocol.
  Only 123 ratified London Amendment and 80 the
  Copenhagen Amendment.

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Ratification Status of the Montreal Protocol
Sierra Leone Somalia Equatorial
Guinea Albania Armenia Afghanistan Bhutan Cambodia
Iraq Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao
(PDR) Oman Palau Haiti Andorra San Marino
Angola Cape Verde Djibouti Eritrea Guinea-Bissau R
wanda Sao Tome Principe
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Challenges (continued)

• Russian Federation and other countries of former
  USSR are yet to implement their obligations. They
  promised to do so by the year 2000.
• Illegal flow of CFCs to the industrialised
  countries is of concern.
• Potential for spread of Methyl Bromide to more
  countries and more applications is of concern.
  Now it is used only in some countries for a small
  number of crops.
• The developing countries, some of whom have
  increased their consumption so far, as allowed by
  the Protocol, have to begin their phase out with
  a freeze from 1 July 1999.

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Challenges (continued)

• Developing countries are concerned about
  increasing flow of CFC products, for example,
  refrigerators, to their countries from countries
  who have adopted Ozone safe products. This will
  increase their demand for CFCs for maintenance of
  these products.
• Global warming could increase ozone depletion.
  Also, HFCs, now used as alternatives for CFCs in
  some applications, have global warming potential
  and are controlled by the Kyoto Protocol. The
  interconnections need to be studied.

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Global Warming Potential of some Ozone Depleting
Substances and Alternatives
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Lessons of the Montreal Protocol

• Precautionary principle, signals to industries,
  integration of science with policy, recognition
  of the special situation of the developing
  countries, common but differentiated
  responsibility, flexibility to take into account
  scientific and technological developments over
  time.

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Countries that have Not Ratified the Montreal
Protocol

• Albania
• Armenia
• Angola
• Cape Verde
• Djibouti
• Equatorial Guinea
• Eritrea
• Guinea-Bissau
• Rwanda
• Sao Tome Principe
• Sierra Leone
• Somalia

• Haiti
• Andorra
• San Marino
• Afghanistan
• Bhutan
• Cambodia
• Iraq
• Kazakhstan
• Kyrgyzstan
• Lao (PDR)
• Oman
• Palau