1
How to feed the World in 2050 The outlook for
food and agriculture in a dynamically changing
economic and demographic environment Josef
Schmidhuber Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations
2
The key challenges

• Feed 9.2 billion by 2050, feed them better and
  provide more nutritious food
• Produce feedstocks for a potentially huge
  bioenergy market
• Contribute to overall development and poverty
  reduction
• Cope with scarce resources and shift to more
  sustainable production methods
• Adapt to the agro-ecological conditions of
  climate change and help reduce GHG emissions

3
The dynamically changing environment

• Population growth
• 2.3 bn to 2050 after 3.3 bn over the last 40
  years
• Highest growth in poorest region SSA 114
• Lowest growth in richest region E and SE Asia
  14
• 2.7 bn in urban areas, massive urbanization
• Income growth
• Overall a richer world by 2050
• 2.9 growth p.a. for the world as a whole,
  higher in DCs lower in ICs
• Convergence, less inequality (country basis)
• Less poverty, but low poverty line of 1.25

4
Population growth to continue, but at a slower
pace
12.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
9.0
0.6
0.5
Annual increments (billions)
6.0
Total population (billions)
0.4
0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source UN, World Population Assessment 2006
5
The food outlook

• Food production slow down in growth
• 70 between 2005/07 and 2050
• 1,000 million t of cereals (from 2,200 million t
  today)
• 200 million t of meats (from 270 million t
  today)
• 300 million t of soybeans (from 215 million t
  today)
• Food trade rapid expansion overall
• DC net imports cereal 125 million t ? 300
  million t
• DC net exports oilseeds 8 million t ? 25 million
  t
• DC net exports sugar 10 million t ? 20 million t
• Food prices
• Secular downward trend in real prices to
  discontinue?
• Energy price link to become more important
• Bioenergy demand wildcard for production, trade
  and prices

6
Nutrition, hunger malnutrition

• Higher calorie availability
• World 2770 ? 3050 kcal/p/d
• DCs 2680 ? 2970 kcal/p/d
• Lower levels and incidence of hunger
• From 823 m (16.3) in 2003/05 to 370 m in 2050
  (4.8)
• WFS target of halving the absolute numbers only
  in the 2040s!
• Progress in reducing hunger, but insufficient
• Higher levels of overweight and obesity
• More NCDs (diabetes 2, coronary heart disease,
  etc.)
• Growing double burden of malnutrition, from food
  poverty to health poverty

7
Is there enough crop land?

• huge potential 4.2 billion ha
• 1.60 billion ha in use today, increase to 1.67
  billion ha by 2050
• But land reserves unevenly distributed ample in
  SSA and LA, exhausted in NENA and SASIA
• and 800 mha covered by forests, 200 mha in
  protected areas, 60 mha in settlements

8
Is there enough yield potential?

• Sources of growth predominantly through higher
  productivity (as in the past)
• World 77 yields, 14 CI, 9 area
• DCs 71 yields, 8 CI, 21 area
• Yield growth considerable slow down 0.8 p.a.
  in the future compared to 1.7 in the past Yield
  potentials
• Still considerable untapped/bridgeable yield
  potentials
• Intensification possible to narrow yield gaps
• Technology potential to raise yield ceilings
• but RD needed for crops that are important for
  the poor (millet, sorghum, RT, pulses, plantains)

9
Is there enough water?

• Area equipped with irrigation
• World 31 mha to 318 mha
• DCs 32 mha to 251 mha
• AH under irrigation 17
• Water withdrawals only 11
• Higher water use efficiency
• Decline of irrigated rice area
• Resource pressure withdrawals as share of
  renewable water resources relatively low for the
  world as a whole, but very high in NENA (58-gt62)
  and high and rising in SASIA (36-gt39)

10
Agricultural transformation

• Vibrant agricultural sector needed for a
  successful economic transformation
• Low food prices and labour surplus stimulated
  economic growth in developed countries,
  absorption of rural labour, pull effect
• For developing countries to enter into a
  similarly successful transformation, more
  investment in agriculture is crucial
  (infrastructure, institutions, RD, extension,
  food safety nets, productive safety nets,
  resource conservation)

11
Conclusions

• The world has the resources (land, water,
  genetics and know-how) to feed 9.2 billion people
  by 2050
• Food security is a predominantly a poverty
  problem but no success in poverty/hunger
  reduction without improvements in agriculture
• The poor depend on agriculture and they are
  disproportionately more affected by CC, higher
  food and energy prices
• Agriculture is the Poor's (and the worlds) best
  hope Investments in agriculture are key to
  reducing poverty, hunger, adapting to and
  mitigating climate change