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CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis


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Title: CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis

CCA/UNDAFPreliminary Analysis
  • Baghdad June 2009

  • Achievements of transition
  • Overarching trends
  • Development challenges
  • Key areas of concern
  • Human rights, justice and security
  • Economic development and inclusive growth
  • Human development
  • Governance
  • Development gaps
  • Top priorities
  • Next steps

Country in transition security political
  • Security incidents fell by 90 Aug 2007 - Apr
    2009 Casualties down
  • Peoples perception of security improved. 80 of
    Iraqis report improvement
  • The political process consolidates Regained
    sovereignty successful elections in 2009
    peoples trust in the state increasing

Source Security UNAMI-SSI, Returns UNHCR
(April 2009)
Country in transition reintegration
  • Return of displaced population increased no
    major new displacement.
  • Between 60-80 of IDPs would like to return to
    their homes (IOM, HCR)

Yearly totals
Source Security UNAMI-SSI, Returns UNHCR
(April 2009)
Country in transition socio-economic improvements
  • Improved macro-economic stability
  • Economic growth
  • Contained inflation
  • Human development indicators have shown
  • Improved food security
  • Food insecurity down from 15 to 3 (WFP/COSIT 05,
  • Prevalence of wasting in children U5 down since
    1990s (9 in 05 to 4.7 in 07)
  • Improved schooling
  • Overall increase in enrolment
  • Gap between male female education achievements
  • Primary school enrolment continues to climb (87
    in 07-8, MOE) and now passed 5m pupils.
  • Antenatal care is relatively high 87 of
    pregnancies / 80 of births are attended by
    skilled personnel (IFHS)

Country in transition
  • However, the situation remains fragile and

Overarching trends
  • Bigger, fast growing and younger population 31
    million, 43 under 15 yrs
  • Iraqs natural resources ecological support
    system in decline
  • Higher dependency on highly unstable
    international oil market
  • Growth in public sector
  • public sector jobs created instead of developing
    private sector
  • focus on subsidies at the expense of service

Key challenges to Iraqs transition
  • Consolidate peace
  • Ensure political participation strengthen
    state-citizen relationship
  • Address limitations to womens participation in
    public life
  • Sustain improvement in security
  • Strengthen rule of law
  • ensure protection of basic rights
  • Strengthen economic performance
  • improve management of resources,
  • stimulate private sector, generate economic
    opportunities, particularly for women young
  • Enable envt for return and reintegration of IDPs
    and refugees
  • Improve access to and quality of basic services,
    esp. for the most vulnerable.
  • Address regional disparities improve rural
    standard of living.

Key areas for Iraqs future development
  1. Human rights, security and justice
  2. Economic development
  3. Human development
  4. Governance

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1. Human Rights, Security Justice
  • Human rights a major concern. Women particularly
    at risk.
  • Civilian casualties still high and security
    institutions(esp. police) need strengthening
  • Key message Continued improvements in human
    rights, security and justice are needed for
    national reconciliation, peace, and development

Landmines and UXOs Iraqs heavily contaminated
More than 3000 suspected mined areas identified
by UN in the 3 Northern Govts.
Large areas with Sub-munitions, UXO and Abandon
munitions contamination
Large border areas with landmine and UXO
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2. Economy Devt Inclusive Growth
  • Economic performance affected by dominant public
    sector (44 full-time employment), weak private
    sector, underperforming under-skilled labour
  • Cultural Resources underdeveloped despite high
    potential (e.g. Tourism sector archeological
    and heritage sites)
  • Young people women left out (25 of men aged
    20-24 yrs unemployed and 18 of women participate
    in Labour Force)
  • 23 of the population under the poverty line,
    high regional disparities, rural population twice
    as poor (IHSES).

Cultural Heritage
  • Unemployment Rate () by Age Groups
    (Concentration among young)

Men (age 15-64yr)
Women (age 15-64yr)
Full Time (36 of LF)
Part Time (45 of LF)
Unemployed (19 of LF)
Economic Devt Energy, Rural devt Environment
  • Electricity unreliable (daily average of public
    supply 7.9 hrs 22 of population rely on public
    network - IHSES)
  • Weak linkages between on and off-farm incomes in
    the rural economy due to lack of value chains
    (e.g. weak, small agro-industry).
  • Weak management of natural resources and pressure
    on natural environment strain economic
    development, esp. rural, including agriculture.

Environment and rural development
39 of all cropland suffered from drought in both
Source FAO, IAU (2009)
Key message
  • Despite improved macro-economic stability, Iraqs
    economy remains oil dependent, with a weak
    private sector and job market and with few
    opportunities for the poor

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Human Development Indices 2008
  • National Report on
  • The Status of Human Development 2008
  • HDI 0.623
  • GDI 0.584
  • HPI 18.800
  • GEM 0.696

3. Human Development Education
  • Iraqs capacity to nurture the skills of next
    generation is weak
  • High gender disparities, e.g. illiteracy esp.
    among rural women (55 rural women aged 15-24
    illiterate, MICS3)
  • 40 of students go from primary to secondary
    school (MOE).
  • Poor quality and overcrowding one in three
    schools operating double shift (MOE)
  • 28 of 17 yr-olds sat final high school exams
    (MOE 2007)
  • 40 pass rate in South and Centre

Human development Health
  • Iraq s health status has waned due to
    consecutive wars, violence and inadequate
    public/reproductive health strategies.
  • Life expectancy at birth 65yr (1987) / 58yr
  • Infant mortality rate 30 per 1,000 live births
    (1984-89) / 35 per 1,000 (2006)
  • Poor mental health, particularly among women (Any
    mental disorder Men (8.8) / Women (13.5. IMHS)
  • Poor measles immunisation 65 coverage (MICS3)
  • Other sectors, such as HIV, also have key issues.

Human development Water sanitation
  • 82 HHs outside Baghdad and KRG have no waste
    collection (IHSES)
  • Lack of access to safe and reliable water and
  • One in 7 children have diahorrea at any one time

Essential Services the public water network
  • Network infrastructure exists but is in a state
    of disrepair

19 Are not connected to the general water
24 Suffer from more than one interruption a day
Source Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey
(2007) COSIT/World Bank
13 Suffer from more than one interruption a
44 Suffer from less than One interruption a week
Human development social protection
  • Social protection exists but not protecting the
    most vulnerable
  • 45 of jobs covered by social insurance
  • 1 in 9 children 5-14 years work, higher in rural
    areas, and these children are less likely to
    participate in school - MICS3
  • PDS provides great proportion of food consumed
    and improves food security amongst the poorest
  • prevalence of hunger low at 7
  • But, irregularity leaves poor highly vulnerable
    (Diyala 51 hunger in 2007 when PDS not delivered
    due to violence).

Human development housing and shelter
  • 4 key issues to poor housing growing demand
  • Population growth rates
  • Levels of overcrowding
  • Poor housing conditions and access to basic
  • Ongoing issues of internally displaced persons

Key message human development
  • Access to quality services is a key priority and
    requires strong further improvement it is
    central for peace and to re-build the legitimacy
    of the government

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4. Governance
  • Perception of state legitimacy, accountability,
    and effectiveness improving, but still weak,
    partly because of slow improvement with services
    and economic opportunities
  • Public sector reform urgent but needs to be
    gradual to avoid destabilisation given high
    dependence on state jobs subsidies.
  • Budget allocations is key issue
  • Weak independent media, environmental and
    cultural resource management needs urgent

Budget Allocation Investment Gap
  • 2008 Actual expenditure shares ( of total

Service Delivery Perceptions
  • Fuel and Electricity seen improvement in peoples
    perception due to private and public investment
  • Service delivery on water, health and education
    less improvement (reflecting lack of investment)

Source ABC Polls (Aug 2007 / Mar 2009)
Key message
  • Improving governance, management of public
    resources, capacity to deliver services and
    generating public debate are critical to
    consolidate peace.

Development Gaps
  • Human capacity
  • Strategy to address poverty
  • Governance capacity

Top priorities
  • Prioritise sequence interventions with high
    transformative, stabilisation, and peace dividend
  • Address regional and governorate disparities
  • Address poverty and unemployment through rural
  • Urgent need to focus on women, youth and children

Next Steps
  • Identification of Thematic Areas and Working
  • Amman Workshop (incl. training on causal
  • Causal Analysis conducted by Thematic Working
    Groups culminating on Thematic analysis
    summarizing their results
  • Drafting of CCA
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