Session 4.2. Situation Analysis Step 6 Estimating Severity of Food Insecurity

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Session 4.2. Situation Analysis Step
6Estimating Severity of Food Insecurity
Malnutrition
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Learning Objectives

• After this session, participants should be able
  to
• List various indicators of severity of crisis
• Explain the meaning and value of the convergence
  of evidence concept
• Describe the needs vs. food basket cost
  method of estimating the food access gap

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Where are we?
EFSA Process
Adapt conceptual framework objectives
Prepare analysis plan indicators, data, sources
Collect, review secondary data
Collect primary data
Conduct situation analysis
Conduct forecast analysis
Analyse response options
Make response recommendations
Prepare report
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Why estimate severity?

• To ring the alarm if need be we must announce
  if the situation is severe or not

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How do we determine severity of the situation?

• Combination and convergence of findings such as
• Magnitude No. of individuals/HHs whose lives
  livelihoods are potentially at risk
• Size of food access or consumption gap
• Historical comparisons comparing current
  population in severe food insecurity with
  previous situations
• Increase in mortality rate (beyond norm for area)
• Acute malnutrition rates
• Other indicators?

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The convergence of evidence concept

• Comparing different indicators
• a powerful way to determine the severity of a
  crisis
• particularly when different indicators lead to
  the same conclusion, show same patterns
• The difficulty Multiple sources are used data
  only as good as source collecting them

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Estimating the access gapOne example

• Cost of minimum nutritious food basket
• Example of East Timor

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Calculating the cost of the minimum food basket

• Average HH size
• Food habits and what constitutes a nutritional
  food basket including main sources of
  micronutrients
• Sources of HHs food
• Cost of each food item

What information will we need to do this?
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Nutritional needs of 7-member family in Dili
  ENERGY PROTEIN FAT CALCIUM IRON VIT. A VIT. C
 Requirements kcal g g mg mg µg RE mg
Child lt5 1,290 25.5 43.0 400 9 390 20
Child lt5 1,290 25.5 43.0 400 9 390 20
Child 5-9 1,980 48.0 42.5 450 16 400 20
Child 10-14 2,210 50.0 42.1 600 24 550 25
Child 10-14 2,210 50.0 42.1 600 24 550 25
Lactating mother 2,920 69.6 64.9 600 17 850 50
Father 2,230 49.6 42.5 400 24 570 30
TOTAL/DAY 14,130 320 316 3,450 123 3,700 190
We need now to figure out what food items can
cover these nutritional needs
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Minimum cost of nutritious food basket for
7-member family in Dili
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Nutritious basket for 7-member family in Dili  Daily needs (grams) Monthly needs (kgs) Cost per kg Monthly cost of family basket
Yellow maize 500 15.00 0.65 9.75
Cassava 1,300 39.00 0.35 13.65
Beans 600 18.00 0.50 9.00
Rice 1,100 33.00 0.43 14.19
Sugar 200 6.00 0.75 4.50
Groundnuts 225 6.75 1.00 6.75
Green leaves 1,200 36.00 0.20 7.20
Tomatoes 250 7.50 0.80 6.00
Vegetable oil 150 4.50 1.34 6.03
Milk 549 US 77.07
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Proxy for FoodAccess Gap in Dili
HHs earning less than US 77.00 per month
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Access Gap in Dili HHs earning less than
US77/month
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Exercise 4.2.The Minimum Cost Food Basket
Challenges in Using the Method

• As a group
• consider the Dili Minimum Cost Food Basket
  example just presented and discuss
• What factors do you suppose made this method
  feasible in Dili?
• What factors might make this method more
  challenging? Why?

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Consider before calculating the food access
deficit

• What is the average household size?
• What are the food habits?
• Which are the main sources of micronutrients?
• From which sources do households obtain their
  food?
• (relatively easier to calculate a food access
  gap in urban areas)