From UPED to REMI: Utah

1
From UPED to REMIUtahs Experience in
Developing Long-Term Economic and Demographic
Projections

• Utah Governors Office of Planning and Budget
• January 2006

2
Synopsis of Current Situation

• Utah bought its REMI Policy Insight models in
  2002
• The REMI models replaced Utahs in-house models,
  which had been used for over 30 years
• The 2005 Baseline long-term projection series is
  the first one to incorporate the REMI models

3
Background of UPED

• UPED combines a cohort component and an economic
  base model
• It produces projections of population, components
  of change, households, and employment by industry
  at the county and state level
• UPED was developed and implemented as Utahs
  official projection model in the 1970s
• UPED produced extremely accurate population
  projections
• 1970 projection of state population in 2000
  within 8 of actual decennial Census count

4
Historical Data
5
Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Area
of the Country
6
Utahs Fastest Growing Counties1990 - 2000
BOX ELDER
CACHE
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT LAKE
TOOELE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE
JUAB
40.0 Increase or Greater
CARBON
Increase of 20.0 - 39.9
SANPETE
EMERY
MILLARD
GRAND
Increase of less than 20
SEVIER
PIUTE
BEAVER
WAYNE
GARFIELD
IRON
SAN JUAN
WASHINGTON
KANE
Source US Census Bureau
7
Utah is an Urban State
Percent Urban
Source U.S. Census Bureau
8
Utahs Population Centers

• These counties are home to 1,813,669 residents,
  or 76 of the states population.
• Three out of every four people in Utah live along
  the Wasatch Front.

Source U.S. Census Bureau
9
Utahs Population Centers
BOX ELDER
CACHE
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT LAKE
TOOELE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE

• These counties are home to 1,973,207 residents,
  or 83 of the states population.

JUAB
CARBON
SANPETE
EMERY
MILLARD
GRAND
SEVIER
PIUTE
BEAVER
WAYNE
GARFIELD
IRON
SAN JUAN
WASHINGTON
KANE
Source U.S. Census Bureau
10
Utahs Population Centers
BOX ELDER
CACHE
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT LAKE
TOOELE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE

• These counties are home to 2,169,373 residents,
  or 91 of the states population.

JUAB
CARBON
SANPETE
EMERY
MILLARD
GRAND
SEVIER
PIUTE
BEAVER
WAYNE
GARFIELD
IRON
SAN JUAN
WASHINGTON
KANE
Source U.S. Census Bureau
11
1972
1982
1993
1997
12
(No Transcript)
13
Utah Has the Largest Households in the Nation

• Average U.S. Household Size 2.59
• Utah.................... 3.13
• Hawaii................ 2.92
• California............ 2.87
• Alaska................. 2.74
• Texas.................. 2.74
• Maine.................. 2.39

A household is a person or group of persons who
live in a housing unit. These equal the count of
occupied housing units in a census.
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
14
Comparing UPED and REMI
15
Advantages and Disadvantages of UPED

• Advantages
• Accuracy
• 8 in 1970
• 2 in 1980
• 0.2 in 1984
• Acceptability
• Institutionalized
• Alternate Scenarios

• Disadvantages
• Lack of documentation
• Complexity
• Individualized

16
Advantages and Disadvantages of REMI

• Advantages
• REMI has been tested and documented
• The design and results are similar to UPED
• Cost savings
• Continued local control
• Customizable

• Disadvantages
• Data differences
• National vs state data
• Assumption differences
• Model irregularities
• Demographics is more of a byproduct

17
Key REMI Model Features

• Structural model that captures all inter-industry
  linkages
• Is calibrated and estimated using national and
  regional data
• Is dynamic and predicts when results will occur
• Economic cause effect relationships explain
  results
• Is the leading policy analysis model in the U.S.

18
State of Utah Projections Process
Economic Base Model
Cohort Component Model
Integrated Economic and Demographic Projections
19
REMI Model Structure
20
2005 BaselineAssumptions/Process
21
Assumptions
22
Growth Analysis

• Population growth is a combination of migration
  and natural increase.
• Employment drives migration.
• National employment is projected based on U.S.
  Census Bureau population projections.

23
Fertility Rates for Utah and the U.S.
24
Components of Change

• Migration contributed 22 of population increase
  from 1950 2004
• During the 1990s, migration rose to 36.
• Migration projected to be 26 from 2005 2035

25
Process
26
The employment projection is based on a trend
analysis of Utahs historical share of national
employment.
Utahs Share of National Employment
27
2005 Baseline Process

• Begin with the state model
• Incorporate employment using employment update
• Incorporate fertility assumptions using policy
  variable selection
• Disaggregate to the counties using the multi
  region county model
• Testing and review to assure believability

28
Washington County Population Growth
Analysis
29
Washington County Population Growth
30
(No Transcript)
31
2005 Baseline ResultsEmployment
32
Employment Growth by Decade for Utah and the U.S.
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
33
SIC Major Industries in Utah 1969 to 2035
Source Provisional 2004 Baseline Projections,
Governors Office of Planning and Budget
34
NAICS Major Industries in Utah 2001-2050
35
Location Quotients State Employment
36
Utah Employment by Industry as a Share of Total
State Employment
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
37
2005 Baseline ResultsPopulation
38
A 100 Year Look at Utahs Population
Utah Population 1950 to 2050
Growth
Sources Historical, U.S. Census Bureau
Projected, 2005 Baseline Projections
39
State of Utah Components of Population Change
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
40
Projected Median Age for Utah and the United
States
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
41
Utahs Changing Age Structure
Female
Male
Source Provisional 2004 Baseline Projections,
Governors Office of Planning and Budget
42
Utahs Changing Age Structure
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
43
Growth of School-Age Population 2000 to 2030
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
44
Growth of 65 and Older Age Group 2000 to 2030
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
45
Age Group Growth Rate Comparison
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
46
Historical and Projected Dependency Ratios for
Utah and the U.S.
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
47
Utah Dependency Ratios 1990 to 2050
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
48
U.S. Dependency Ratios 1990 to 2050
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
49
Population by Multi-County District 1940 to 2030
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
50
Population Growth Rates by Multi-County
District 2000 to 2050
Source Provisional 2004 Baseline Projections,
Governors Office of Planning and Budget
51
Utah Population Annual Average Growth Rates By
County 2000 to 2050
State Average 1.8
52
Summary

• Utah has a long history of producing timely and
  accurate long term economic and demographic
  projections
• Utah has higher rates of economic and population
  growth than the nation.
• While Utah is becoming more like the nation, it
  will continue to have unique demographic
  characteristics that set it apart.
• The REMI models enable Utah to continue to
  produce quality population projections at the
  local level

53
Robert Spendlove Governors Office of Planning
and Budget E210 State Capitol Complex Salt Lake
City, UT 84114 rspendlove_at_utah.gov 801-538-1027 w
ww.governor.utah.gov