Mitigating Climate Change

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CGE Training materials - Mitigation
AssessmentModule A

• Mitigating Climate Change

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Glossary

• NC National Communication
• NCSP National Communications Support Programme
• NIS National Inventory System
• PAMs Policies and Measures
• QA/QC Quality Assurance and Quality Control
• QUELRO Quantified Emission Limitation and
  Reduction Obligations
• REDD/REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
  and forest Degradation/plus conservation,
  sustainable management of forests and enhanced
  forest carbon stocks.
• SBSTA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
  Technological Advice
• TAP Technology Action Plan
• TNA Technology Needs Assessment
• UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

• AI Annex One
• CDM Clean Development Mechanism
• CMP Conference of the Parties serving as the
  meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
• COP Conference of Parties
• IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• JI Joint Implementation
• LCDS Low Carbon Development Strategies
• LCGCS Low Carbon Growth Country Studies
• LEDS Low Emission Development Strategies
• MRV Measurement, Reporting and. Verification
• NAI Non Annex One
• NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
  (unilateral, supported or credited)
• NAPA National Adaptation Programmes of Action

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Module Objectives and Expectations

• Objective Provide participants with an
  introduction to key issues related to climate
  change mitigation including
• The current state of climate change science
• Key sources, sinks, and sectors of Green House
  Gas (GHG) emissions
• Mitigation actions their potential costs and
  benefits, and their relationship with the
  broader issues of sustainability and
  development.
• Expectations Participants will have a broad but
  sound understanding of key issues related to
  climate change, motivating participants on the
  rationale and urgency of global Green House Gas
  (GHG) mitigation, the benefits of mitigation
  actions, and how these might fit with other
  national priorities.

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Module Outline

1. State of Knowledge on Climate Change
2. GHG Emissions Sources, Sinks and Sectors
3. Mitigation Actions, Potential Benefits and
   Sustainable Development

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Module A1

• State of Knowledge on Climate Change

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)

• Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007
• gt2500 scientific expert reviewers, 1250
  contributing and lead authors, gt130 countries.
• Three working groups
• WG I to assess the science of climate change
• WG II to assess impacts, adaptation and
  vulnerability
• WG III to assess mitigation of climate change

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Key Findings of AR4 (IPCC, 2007)

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
• Most of warming since mid-20th century from
  increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations
• Continued GHG emissions... would induce many
  changes in the global climate system during the
  21st century that would very likely be larger
  than those observed during the 20th century
• Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can
  avoid all climate change impacts however, they
  can complement each other and together can
  significantly reduce the risks of climate change
• There is substantial potential for mitigation
  over the coming decades that could reduce
  emissions below current levels

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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
(IPCC 2007)

• Global average air and ocean temperatures are
  increasing.
• Global average sea level is rising.
• Extent of snow and ice cover is decreasing.

Warmest 12 years on record
Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGI
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Historical Atmospheric Concentrations

• Current carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4)
  concentrations greatly exceed ice core records
  dating back 650,000 years.
• CO2 concentrations increased 100 ppm over last
  250 years (from 280 ppm pre-industrial to 379
  ppm in 2005).
• Between 1995 and 2005, CO2 increased 19 ppm
  highest average growth rate recorded for a decade
  since measurements began in 1950s.

Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGI
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Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many
changes in the global climate system during the
21st century that would very likely be larger
than those observed during the 20th century.
Source IPCC (2007) AR4 Synthesis Report
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Projected Surface Temperature Changes (2090-2099
relative to 1980-1999)
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
(oC)
Continued emissions would lead to further warming
of 1.1oC to 6.4oC over the 21st century
Slide adapted from Dr. RK Pachauris
presentation, State of the World Symposium,
Washington, 15th January 2009.
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Climate Change will Exacerbate Water Stress
Large-scale relative changes in runoff (water
availability, in percent) by the end of the 21st
Century
Source IPCC AR4
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Reasons for Concern IPCC Third Assessment Report
2001
Source Assessing dangerous climate change
through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) reasons for concern
(PNAS, Feb 2009)
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Updated Reasons for Concern
Source Assessing dangerous climate change
through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) reasons for concern
(PNAS, Feb 2009)
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Examples of Global Impacts
Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGII
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Examples of Regional Impacts
Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGII See also IPCC
SREX SPM (2012)
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Developing Countries are the Most Vulnerable

• Impacts are worse
• Large share of economy in climate sensitive
  sectors (e.g. agriculture, tourism)
• Prone to natural disasters (e.g. floods and
  droughts)
• Adds to existing water resource stresses
• Multiple stresses and lower adaptive capacity
• Limited financial, institutional, technological
  capacity
• Limited access to knowledge
• Impacts disproportionately on poorest countries
  and poorest people
• Exacerbated human health, food security,
  malnutrition, clean water and other resource
  access concerns

Slide adapted from Dr. RK Pachauri presentation,
State of the World Symposium, Washington, 15th
January 2009.
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Expected Impacts on Poor Regions
People exposed to increased water stress by 2020

• 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia
• 12 to 81 million in Latin America
• 75 to 250 million in Africa

Possible yield reduction in agriculture

• 30 by 2050 in Central and South Asia
• 30 by 2080 in Latin America
• 50 by 2020 in some African countries

Crop revenues could fall by 90 by 2100 in Africa
Slide adapted from Dr. R K Pachauri s
presentation, State of the World Symposium,
Washington, 15th January 2009.
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Adaptation

• Has the potential to reduce the adverse effects
  of climate change and can produce ancillary
  benefits, but cannot prevent all damage
• Numerous adaptation options have been identified
• Greater and more rapid climate change would pose
  greater challenges for adaptation
• Neither adaptation nor mitigation, alone, can
  avoid all impacts, but they can complement each
  other and together significantly reduce risks.

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The Mitigation Challenge Global Emissions
Pathways Giving 67 Chance of Achieving
Compliance with 2C Guardrail
Source WGBU (2009)
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Module A2

• GHG Emissions Sources, Sinks and Sectors

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Estimating GHG Emissions

• UNFCCC accounting covers a basket of direct
  greenhouse gases (GHGs)
• Expressed in global warming potential (GWP),
  which compares the radiative forcing of a tonne
  of a greenhouse gas over a given time period
  (e.g. 100 years) to a tonne of CO2
• Other climate forcers such as black carbon may be
  considered separately.
• National GHG inventories
• Core element of national communications
• Starting point for mitigation analysis.

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Greenhouse Gases Sources and Sinks
Greenhouse Gas Principal Sources (and Sinks) GWP
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Fossil fuel use, land use change (oceans, terrestrial biosphere) 1
Methane (CH4) Fossil fuel mining/distribution, livestock, rice agriculture, landfills 21
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Agriculture and associated land use change 310
F-gases Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) Industrial processes 140 - 23,900
Global anthropogenic GHG emissions (2004)
GWP Global Warming Potential from Second
Assessment Report, as used for reporting purposes
under the UNFCCC
Sources IPCC (2007) AR4 WGI WGIII
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Baseline Trends in Fossil-fuel and
Industry-related CO2 Emissions

• Baseline emissions growth in the coming decades
  will come predominantly from the developing
  world.
• However, emissions per capita in developing
  countries are set to remain much lower than in
  the developed world.

• Source Global Energy Assessment (2012,
  Forthcoming)

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Regional Distribution of Emissions Per Capita
and Per Dollar GDP
Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII
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Greatest Share of GHG Emissions in Latin America
and the Caribbean (LAC) from Land Use Change
Source World Bank, Low Carbon, High Growth
Latin American Responses to Climate Change
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GHG Emissions per Capita for Selected Latin
American and the Caribbean (LAC) (2000,
tCO2/person)
Source World Bank, Low Carbon, High Growth
Latin American Responses to Climate Change
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Sectoral Emissions Trends
CO2 only (1970-2004)
All GHGs (2004)

• Since 1970, increases in global CO2 emissions
  have been largely due to rise in fossil fuel use
  for electricity and transportation
• Agriculture, forestry and land use change
  currently comprise about 30 of global
  greenhouse gas emissions.

Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII
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Mitigation Potentials by Sector in 2030 as
Estimated from Bottom-up Studies
 
Source IPCC AR4 (2007) Synthesis Report
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Module A3

• Mitigation Actions, Potential Benefits and
  Sustainable Development

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Studies Show the Potential for Mitigation Actions
to Greatly Reduce Global Emissions

• According to the IPCC (2007), There is high
  agreement and much evidence that all
  stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by
  deployment of a portfolio of technologies that
  are either currently available or expected to be
  commercialized in coming decades, assuming
  appropriate and effective incentives are in place
  for their development, acquisition, deployment
  and diffusion and addressing related barriers.

Source IPCC (2007) AR4 Synthesis Report
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Key Mitigation Instruments,Policies and Practices

• Research, development and demonstration
• Appropriate energy infrastructure investments
• Regulations and standards
• Taxes and charges
• Change in lifestyles and consumption patterns
• Effective carbon price signal.

Adapted from Dr. RK Pachauris presentation,
State of the World Symposium, Washington, 15th
January 2009.
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Sectoral Approaches to Mitigation Technologies
and Policies
Source IPCC (2007) AR4 Synthesis Report
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Potential Co-benefits of Mitigation

• Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution
• Increased energy security
• More rural employment
• Increased agricultural production and reduced
  pressure on natural ecosystems
• Improved technological base
• Strengthened institutions and human capacity

Slide adapted from Dr. RK Pachauris
presentation, State of the World Symposium,
Washington, 15th January 2009.
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Co-benefits of Bogotás BRT System

• The TransMilenio Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system
  in Bogotá, Colombia demonstrates how co-benefits
  of more efficient transportation can accrue to
  the poor.
• The lowest income groups enjoy the greatest
  savings in travelling time.

Source World Bank, Low Carbon, High Growth
Latin American Responses to Climate Change
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Impacts of Mitigation on GDP Growth(for
stabilization scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)
Schematic graph
GDP
Current
Time
2030
Slide adapted from Dr. R. K Pachauri
presentation, State of the World Symposium,
Washington, 15th January 2009.
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Costs of Inaction in the Caribbean

• Costs are related to damages from
• Increased hurricane intensity
• Loss of tourism from rising temperatures and
  sea-level rise
• Infrastructure damages from sea-level rise
  (largest contributor to costs)
• Significant costs are predicted for Caribbean
  island nations from global climate inaction
• Regional average 10 of GDP by 2050 22 of GDP
  by 2100
• Much greater impacts (gt75 of GDP by 2100) in
  some countries

Source Bueno et al. (2008). The Caribbean and
Climate Change The Costs of Inaction
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Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation

• Possible relationships
• Complementary
• Substitutable or
• Independent?
• Imperfect substitutes
• Because of long lag times in the climate system,
  no mitigation efforts will be able to prevent
  some amount of climate change
• Conversely, reliance on adaptation alone would
  lead to a large magnitude of climate change, to
  which it would be very expensive to adapt.

Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGII
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Mitigation and Adaptation Synergies and
Trade-offs

• Nature of benefits varies
• Mitigation global and long-term
• Adaptation local and shorter term
• Trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation
• National level often viewed as competing
  priorities
• Local level increasing recognition of overlaps,
  especially when natural, energy, and
  sequestration systems intersect
• Particularly important for developing countries
  and LDCs relying on natural resources for energy
  and development
• Examples emerging in bioenergy, forestry,
  agriculture

• Both adaptation and mitigation depend on capital
  assets (including social capital).
• Mitigation and adaptation policies can be related
  to sustainable development goals.

Agroforestry
Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII
Photo source Scitizen (2009)
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Example Tanzania National Agroforestry Strategy

• 2004 National Agroforestry Strategy
• Goal By 2020, 60 of resource-poor households
  adopt agroforestry technologies, contributing to
  improved livelihoods.
• Complements MKUKUTA national development
  strategy (increasing household income while
  protecting the environment).
• Crops, livestock, and trees/shrubs
  planted/retained on farm land create a web of
  resilient land use practices to mitigate and
  adapt to climate change, conserve biodiversity,
  and stop land degradation.

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Decision-making under Uncertainty

• Uncertainties in long-term studies assessing net
  benefits of avoided changes vs. costs of GHG
  reduction
• Strategies include combining economic analysis
  and precautionary principles, insurance, hedging,
  including low-probability events in risk
  assessment
• Seeking robustness in decision-making given
  uncertainties and differing stakeholder interests
• Mainstreaming to integrate policies and
  measures that address climate change into ongoing
  sectoral and development planning and decision
  making to ensure long-term sustainability and
  reduce vulnerability to both current and future
  climate.

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Development will be Undermined by Climate Change

• Poverty 1.3 billion people live on less than 1
  USD per day and 3 billion people on less than 2
  USD per day. Top 20 income group uses 86 of
  resources, while bottom 20 uses under 1.3
• Food 800 million people malnourished today- food
  production needs to double in the next 35 years
• Water 1.3 billion people without clean water 2
  billion without sanitation
• Energy 2 billion people without electricity
• Environment 1.4 billion people exposed to
  dangerous levels of outdoor pollution and even
  larger number exposed to dangerous levels of
  indoor air pollution and vector-borne diseases
• Shelter many live in areas susceptible to civil
  strife, environmental degradation, and natural
  disasters.

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Two-Way Relationship between Climate Change and
Sustainable Development

• Societys priorities on sustainable development
  influence GHG emissions, causing climate change
  and vulnerability

• Climate change influences natural and human
  living conditions, and social/economic development

Source IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII
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Addressing Energy Poverty
Source OECD/IEA (2011)
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Integrating Mitigation in Development Planning

• Mitigation options that improve productivity of
  resource use (energy, water, land) generally
  yield sustainable development benefits.
• Climate-related policies (e.g. energy efficiency)
  are often economically beneficial, improve energy
  security, reduce local pollution, and create
  jobs.
• Opportunities for mitigation-sustainable
  development synergies are especially promising in
  waste management, transportation, and buildings
  (decreased energy use and reduced pollution).
• Reducing deforestation can yield biodiversity,
  soil and water conservation benefits, but may
  result in economic loss and reduced agricultural
  (or forestry) production.
• Capitalizing on synergies is especially relevant
  where economic and social development are the top
  priorities.

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Which Path Forward?
Copenhagen Accord calls for deep cuts in global
emissionsto hold the increase in global
temperature below 2oC.

• Dramatic reductions in GHG emissions will be
  required to prevent dangerous climate change.
• Achieving a 2oC target will require a global
  response.

Source World Bank WDR (2009)
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Possible Topics for Discussion

• How might mitigation and adaptation policies
  differ in terms of implementation challenges?
• Where are there opportunities to integrate
  climate change mitigation and sustainable
  development priorities in your country?
• What are the challenges of addressing energy
  poverty?
• Do you see mitigation as complementary to, or in
  competition with, development priorities?

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Discussion Questions

• Does the relative significance of sectors and
  their global/regional mitigation potential
  correspond to your expectations? Your national
  situation?
• What are the pros and cons of approaching
  mitigation from a sectoral perspective?
• Do national inventories typically provide
  sufficient data for mitigation analysis? What
  additional emissions data might be needed?