APES Chapter 12

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APES Chapter 12

• Human Populations

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Key Points

• How is population size affected by birth, death,
  fertility, and migration rates?
• How is population size affected by the percentage
  of males and females at each age level?
• How can population growth be slowed?
• What successes have India and China had in
  slowing population growth?
• How can global population growth be reduced?

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Factors Affecting Human Population Size

• Three factors influence population growth
• Births, deaths, and migration.

• Population change calculated by
• population change (births immigration)
  (deaths emigration)

• Instead of using total numbers they use crude
  birth rate (number of live births per 1000 people
  in a population in a given year) and crude death
  rate (number of deaths per 1000 people in a
  population in a given year.

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Average Crude Birth And Crude Death Rates
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Worlds Annual Population Change

• Birth rates and death rates are coming down
  worldwide but death rates are falling faster than
  birth rates and therefore we are increasing in
  size. (approximately 216,000 new people each
  day, most in LDCs)
• Rate of worlds annual population change
  (excluding migration) is expressed as
• Annual rate of natural population change
  () Birth rate - death rate X 100
• 1000
• Birth rate death rate
• 10

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Average Annual Rate of Population Change 2002
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Exponential Growth

• Exponential growth has not disappeared but it has
  slowed down.
• It dropped 42 from 1963 at 2.2 to 2002 at
  1.28. This is good!
• However the population base increased 94. This
  is bad!
• This 1.28 increase may seem small but, it adds
  79 million people to the world each year.
• And with the large base it means 79 million
  people each year in 2002 whereas in 1963 it was
  only 69 million!!

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Average Annual Increase in Worlds
Population1950-2002 and Projections to 2005
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World Rates of Population Growth

• China (1.28 billion) and India (1 billion) have
  the largest numbers of people and the largest
  bases accounting for 37 of the worlds
  population. (USA is third with 288 million people)

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Most Populous Countries 2002
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Changes in Global Fertility Rates

• Two types of fertility
• Replacement level fertility the number of
  children a couple must bear to replace
  themselves.
• It is slightly higher than 2 children per couple
  (2.1 in developed countries and 2.5 in developing
  countries), mostly because some female children
  die before reaching their reproductive years.

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Replacement Level Fertility

• Does reaching replacement level fertility mean
  an immediate halt to population growth?
• No!! Because so many future parents are alive.
• IF each of todays couples had an average of 2.1
  children and their children also had 2.1
  children, then the worlds population would
  continue to grow for 50 years or more (assuming
  death rates do not rise)

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Total Fertility Rate

• An estimate of the average number of children a
  woman will have during her childbearing years if
  between ages 15 and 49 she bears children at the
  same rate women did this year.
• The TFR has dropped since 1950
• 2002 the global TFR was 2.8 children per woman.
  LDCs is 3.1 and MDCs is 1.6
• In 1950 it was 6.5 in LDCs and 2.5 in MDCs
• This is good progress yet, it is still above the
  Replacement level fertility

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Total Fertility Rate 1950-2002
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Total Fertility Rates in 2002
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Case Study How Have Fertility Rates Changed in
the United States

• U.S. population has grown from 76 million in
  1900 to 288 million in 2002 even though the
  countrys TFR has fluctuated wildly.
• Our growth is still faster than any other
  developed country when include migration
• In 2002 we increased 2.9 million 1.7 million
  more births than deaths 900,000 legal immigrants
  and refugees and an estimated 300,000 illegal
  immigrants

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Total Fertility Rates U.S. 1917-2002
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Birth Rates in the U.S. From 1910 -2002
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Factors that Affect Birth Rates and Fertility
Rates

• Importance of Children as a part of the labor
  force
• Urbanization
• Cost of raising and educating children
• Educational and employment opportunities for
  women
• Infant mortality rate
• Average age at marriage
• Availability of private and public pension
  systems
• Availability of legal abortions
• Availability of reliable birth control methods
• Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

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Comparison of Basic Demographic Data for U.S.,
Canada and Mexico
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Factors Affecting Death Rates

• Large increase in the worlds population growth
  over the past 100 years is not the result of
  increase in crude birth rate but a decrease in
  crude death rates.
• More people started living longer and few infants
  died as
• Increased food supply and distribution
• Better nutrition
• Improvements in medical and public health
  technology
• Improved sanitation and personal hygiene
• Safer water supplies

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Indicators of overall health of a people in a
country or region

• Two factors are good useful indicators of overall
  health
• Life Expectancy the average number of years a
  newborn infant can expect to live
• Infant Mortality Rate the number of babies out
  of every 1000 born who die before their 1st
  birthday.

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Good News/ Bad News About Life Expectancy

• Good news Life expectancy at birth has increased
  globally from 48-67 years (MDCs to 76 years and
  LDCs to 65 years)
• Bad news in the worlds 49 poorest countries,
  mostly in Africa, the life expectancy is 55 or
  less. And declining due to AIDS.

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Why Infant Mortality is the Single Most Important
Measure of a Societies Quality of Life

• High Infant Mortality Rate usually indicates
  insufficient food poor nutrition, and high
  incidence of infectious disease.
• Infant mortality rates have declined since 1965
  from 20 per 1000 live births to 7 in MDCs and
  from 118 to 60 in LDCs.

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Infant Mortality and the U.S.

• Between 1900 and 2002 the U.S. infant mortality
  dropped from 165 to 6.8. This led directly to
  the increase in life expectancy.
• However even though it is so low the U.S. has 37
  other countries with lower Infant Mortality rates
• Why is the U.S. rate so high in comparison?
• Inadequate health care (mainly for poor women)
• Drug addictions among pregnant women
• High teenage birth rates

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Good News/ Bad News About Infant Mortality in the
U.S.

• Good News the U.S. birth rate among girls ages
  15 19 has declined and was at its lowest since
  1940.
• Bad News The U.S. has the highest teenage
  pregnancy rate of any industrialized nation many
  of them end in abortion and those that actually
  go full term produce babies with low birth weight.

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Population Age Structure

• The proportion of the population of each sex at
  each age level.
• Three age levels
• Pre-reproductive 0-14
• Reproductive 15-44
• Post-reproductive 45-85

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How Does Age Structure Affect Population Growth?

• When you have a wide base to an age structure
  (high pre-reproductive 0-14) you have a built in
  momentum for population growth. (as long as death
  rates do not rise)
• This will continue to support population growth
  even if the population reaches Replacement Level
  Fertility.
• In 2002, 30 of the population of the World was
  pre-reproductive.

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Worldwide Population Age Structure Comparisons

• Populations have stabilized in Japan and the
  European countries yet, population size is
  expected to double or triple before stabilizing
  in LDCs is reached.
• We live in a demographically divided world of the
  haves and have nots.
• We can use these age structure diagrams to make
  economic as well as population projections for
  the future. As seen through the U.S. age
  structure and the baby boom over time.

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Economic Effects of Baby Boomers and Future
Generations

• With about half the population of the U.S. baby
  boomers influence
• The goods and services market.
• Who is elected and what laws are passed.
• Creating a 50 something and 60 something market.
• Influence the baby-bust generation (Gen. X) to
  pay higher taxes (Social Security, health-care,
  and income) to support baby boomers.

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Baby Bust and Echo Boom

• Baby bust should have things easier in some
  respects than baby boom such as opportunities
  for education, jobs, services, and labor
  shortages may drive up wages because less people
  competing.
• However difficult to get job promotions as the
  baby boomers mature and hold many higher level
  positions later in life due to advanced health
  care, later age for Social Security, and need to
  accumulate retirement funds.
• Echo Boom is the largest generation ever and will
  soon have more economic power than baby boom
  parents.

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Some Effects of Population Decline From Reduced
Fertility

• Increase in the percentage of people over the age
  of 60.
• Increase in social services and health care
  requirements.
• Decrease in the needed worker base to sustain
  such programs.
• By 2050, 39 countries including Japan, Germany,
  Italy, Hungary and Ukraine will be smaller than
  today.

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Effects of Population Decline From Rise in Death
Rates

• HIV/AIDS kills more young adults while hunger and
  malnutrition kill the infants and children.
• AS the young adults age structure shifts due to
  the deaths caused by AIDS reslut are
• Drop in average life expectancy
• Loss of young adult workers and trained personnel
• Rise in the number of orphans
• Drop in food production

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Solutions Influencing Population Size

• Migration is limited in most countries, only
  Australia, Canada, and U.S. allow large increases
  each year.

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Solutions Influencing Population Size

• Birth rates
• Many believe that the earth has already exceeded
  its carrying capacity.
• Others believe we may be able to go to 20
  billion people. Take the increasing life
  expectancy as a reason.
• How do we sustain the growth of the population
  without endangering the environment more.
• We fail to provide the basic necessities today
  for one of every six people. How are we going to
  support 3.9 billion more people by 2050.

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How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth
Rates

• Demographic Transition

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Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion
Rates

• Advantages of Family Planning
• Increase the proportion of married women in
  developing countries who use birth control
• 50 drop in TFR since 1950
• Reducing the number of legal and illegal
  abortions
• Decreasing the risk of death form pregnancy
• Unfortunately,
• 42 of all pregnancies in LDCs are unplanned and
  26 end in abortion.
• Many women, 250-350 million, want to limit the
  number and determine the spacing of their
  children, but they lack access to services.

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Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion
Rates

• Future Goals
• Expanding family planning to include teenagers
  and sexually active unmarried women who are often
  excluded.
• Pro-choice and por-life groups to join forces in
  greatly reducing unplanned births and abortions,
  especially among teenagers
• Programs to educate men about having fewer
  children and taking more responsibility for
  raising them
• Increased research on developing new, more
  effective, and more acceptable birth control
  methods for men

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Empowering Women to Reduce Birth Rates

• Women tend to have fewer children when they have
  access to education and jobs outside the home and
  live in societies in which their rights are not
  suppressed.
• Most analysts believe that women everywhere
  should have full legal rights and opportunity to
  become educated and earn income outside the home.
• Not possible without a great deal of social
  changes in many of the male-dominated societies
  of today.

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Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth
Rates

• Many couples in developing countries want 3-4
  children, well above RLF.
• Analysts suggest that one way to get them to
  downsize is offer economic rewards or penalties
  to help slow growth.
• About 20 countries offer small payments to people
  who agree to use contraceptives or to be
  sterilized, yet many who do this have already had
  all the kids they want.

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Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth
Rates

• Some countries penalize couples for having too
  many kids, like China.
• Penalties range from raising taxes, charging
  fees, or eliminating tax deductions for a
  couples third child (Singapore, Hong Kong,
  Ghana)
• Penalties may also include loss of health care
  benefits, food allotments, and job opportunities.

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Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth
Rates

• These work best if
• They encourage (rather than coerce) people to
  have fewer children
• Reinforce existing customs and trends toward
  smaller families
• Do not penalize people who produce large families
  before the programs were established
• Increase a poor familys economic status.

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Case Study India

• India First family planning program in 1952.
• Since then population has still increased.
• And they continue to face serious malnutrition,
  poverty, and environmental damage. ( see list on
  pages 272-273)
• Many of its proponents are disappointed even
  though without the program the conditions would
  be worse. Many problems arose from the family
  planning program poor planning, bureaucratic
  inefficiency, the low status of women( even
  though guaranteed equality), extreme poverty and
  lack of administrative support and financial
  support.

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Case Study China

• ChinaSharp drop in crude birth rate and TFR
  since 1972 from 5.7 1.8 children per woman.
• However to achieve these goals the dictatorship
  had to chose between mass starvation, if no
  control measures were put into place, and
  coercive measures to limit population growth.
  They chose very strict and coercive measures!!

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Case Study China

• These population control measures included
• Couples urged to postpone age of marriage and to
  pledge to have only one child.
• Free access to sterilization, contraceptives, and
  abortion.
• Received extra food, larger pensions, better
  housing, free medical care, salary bonuses, free
  school tuition and preferential treatment in the
  employment.

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Case Study China

• The success of the program has led China to
  consider allowing the rural families to have a
  second child to support the growing elderly
  population in the future.
• However the successes are still limited by the
  environmental impact of over 1 billion people and
  may reduce the ability to produce enough food and
  health care for its still growing population.

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Cutting World Population Growth

• In 1994 the third UN Conference on Population and
  Development was held in Cairo, Egypt.
• Goals set forth to be met by 2015 included
• provide universal access to family planning and
  reproductive health care
• Improve health care of infants children and
  pregnant women
• Encourage development and implementation of
  national population policies as part of social
  and economic policy
• Equality among men and women
• Increase access to education for women and girls
• Increase involvement of men in childrearing
• Take steps to eradicate poverty
• Reduce and eliminate unsustainable over
  consumption

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Cutting World Population Growth

• The goals of Cairo Conference included financial
  promises to be met by both developing and
  developed countries
• Developing countries were to contribute 17
  billion dollars with the developed countries
  supplying the rest.
• However by 2002, the goals were only partially
  met 70 by the developing countries and only 40
  by the developed countries.

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Cutting World Population Growth

• However, there was a realization that population
  control can work (Japan, China, Thailand, South
  Korea, Taiwan, and Iran).
• Within a 15-30 year time frame you can see
  achieve RLF.
• From these countries and others efforts some of
  the best ways to control population growth have
  been discovered
• Investing in family planning
• Reducing poverty
• elevating the status of women