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Global Climate Change
A tutorial on climate change
causes, trends
regulations
Michael Prather Kavli Chair Professor Earth
System Science UC Irvine
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Q What drives Global Climate Change ?
Changes in Atmospheric Composition greenhouse
gases, aerosols, clouds, water vapor
Changes in Land Use deforestation,
desertification, ... Changes in Solar
Output Perturbation to Radiative Balance
of the Climate System troposphere, land, and
ocean
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Q What is Radiative Forcing ?
Solar Heating of the climate system ? 200 W
m-2 ? is balanced by ? Terrestrial InfraRed
Cooling ? 200 W m-2 Greenhouse Gases trap
Terrestrial IR
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Q What is Radiative Forcing ?
A perturbation to the climate system either
natural or anthropogenic Is evaluated by the
radiative imbalance that it causes before the
system adjusts Is calculated as the global
mean Radiative Forcing RF in units of W m-2
Current anthropogenic RF from greenhouse
gases ? 3 W m-2
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Q What is todays anthropogenic Radiative
Forcing ?
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Q What is the History of Anthropogenic RF
?
COOLING WARMING
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Q What about natural solar forcing ?
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Q Is the Observed Temperature Change
Consistent with Greenhouse Gases ?
Climate Model Simulations ? (a) with only
natural forcing (solar, volcanoes) ? (b) with
also anthropogenic gases and aerosols
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Q Why worry about climate change ?
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Q Why worry about climate change ?
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Q Why worry about climate change ?
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Q Why worry about climate change ?
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Q What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate
Change?
1992 United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change adopted in 1992 and entered
into force in 1994 (188 ratification 28 Jan
2003)
1997 Kyoto Protocol needs 55 parties with 55
of 1990 CO2 emissions (104 ratification, 43.9
of Annex I 28 Jan 2003)
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Q What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate
Change?
UN FCCC ARTICLE 2 OBJECTIVE The ultimate
objective of this Convention and any related
legal instruments that the Conference of the
Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance
with the relevant provisions of the Convention,
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. Such a level should be achieved
within a time-frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,
to ensure that food production is not threatened
and to enable economic development to proceed in
a sustainable manner.
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Q What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate
Change?
UN FCCC ARTICLE 4 COMMITMENTS 4.1....All
Parties, , shall (b)....Formulate, implement,
publish and regularly update national and, where
appropriate, regional programmes containing
measures to mitigate climate change by addressing
anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals
by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled
by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to
facilitate adequate adaptation to climate
change 4.2...The developed country Parties
(Annex I) commit themselves (a)....Each of
these Parties shall adopt national policies and
take corresponding measures on the mitigation of
climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and
enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and
reservoirs.
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Q What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate
Change?
Kyoto Protocol Article 3.1The Parties
included in Annex I shall, individually or
jointly, ensure that their aggregate anthropogenic
carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the
greenhouse gases listed in Annex A do not exceed
their assigned amounts, calculated pursuant to
their quantified emission limitation and
reduction commitments inscribed in Annex B and in
accordance with the provisions of this Article,
with a view to reducing their overall emissions
of such gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990
levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.
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Q What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate
Change?
Kyoto Protocol Annex A Greenhouse
gasesCarbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous
oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocar
bons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride
(SF6)Sectors/source categoriesEnergy, Fuel
combustion, Energy industries, Manufacturing
industries and construction, Transport, Other
sectors, Fugitive emissions from fuels, Solid
fuels, Oil and natural gas, Mineral products,
Chemical industry, Metal production, Production
of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Consumptio
n of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Agricult
ure, Enteric fermentation, Manure management Rice
cultivation, Agricultural soils, Prescribed
burning of savannas Field burning of agricultural
residues, Waste, Wastewater handling, Other
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Q What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate
Change?
Kyoto Protocol Annex B Commitment 2008-2012 to
1990 () Australia 108 Austria 92 Belgium
92 Bulgaria 92 Canada 94 Croatia 95 Czech
Republic 92 Denmark 92 Estonia 92 European
Community 92 Finland 92 France 92 Germany
92 Greece 92 Hungary 94
Iceland 110 Ireland 92 Italy 92 Japan 94 Latvia
92 Liechtenstein 92 Lithuania 92 Luxembourg
92 Monaco 92 Netherlands 92 New Zealand
100 Norway 101 Poland 94 Portugal 92 Romania 92
Romania 92 Russian Federation 100 Slovakia
92 Slovenia 92 Spain 92 Sweden 92 Switzerland
92 Ukraine 100 United Kingdom of Great Britain
and Northern Ireland 92 United States of America
93
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Q What are other Conventions and Protocols ?
1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the
Ozone Layer secure a general treaty to tackle
ozone depletion 1987 Montreal Protocol on
Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (175
ratification Dec 2000) 1990 London (144
ratification Dec 2000) 1992 Copenhagen 1995
Vienna . . .

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Q What are other Conventions and Protocols ?

• 1979 Geneva Convention on Long-range
• Transboundary Air Pollution
• interrelationship between sulfur emissions in
  continental
  Europe and the acidification of Scandinavian
  lakes.
• (48 ratification all Europe Dec 2001)
• 1985 Helsinki Protocol on the Reduction of
  Sulfur Emissions or their Transboundary
  Fluxes by at least 30 (19 signatories /
  22 ratification Canada Dec 2001)
• 1988 Sofia Protocol concerning the Control of
  Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or their
  Transboundary Fluxes (25 signatories / 28
  ratification U.S.Canada Dec 2001)
• 1999 Gothenburg Protocol to Abate Acidification,
  Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone
  
  (31 signatories / 1 ratification Dec 2001)

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Q What are other Conventions and Protocols ?

• United Nations Convention on
• Biological Diversity
• (182 Parties / 168 signatories -U.S. Sep
  2001)

The objectives of this Convention, to be pursued
in accordance with its relevant provisions, are
the conservation of biological diversity, the
sustainable use of its components and the fair
and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out
of the utilization of genetic resources,
including by appropriate access to genetic
resources and by appropriate transfer of relevant
technologies, taking into account all rights over
those resources and to technologies, and by
appropriate funding.
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Q What do we mean by Climate Change ?
Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change
in climate over time, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity.
Climate change in the UN FCCC refers to a
change of climate that is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and that is
in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.
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Q What is the IPCC?
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
established the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The role of the
IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and
socio-economic information relevant for the
understanding of the risk of human-induced
climate change. It does not carry out new
research nor does it monitor climate related
data. It bases its assessment mainly on published
and peer reviewed scientific technical
literature.
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Q What is the IPCC?
The IPCC has three Working Groups Task
Force Working Group I assesses the scientific
aspects of the climate system and climate
change. Working Group II assesses the
vulnerability of socio-economic and natural
systems to climate change, consequences of and
options for adapting to it. Working Group III
assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas
emissions and otherwise mitigating climate
change. Task Force on Greenhouse Gas
Inventories oversees the national reporting
programs and requirements.
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Q What are the IPCC Assessments ?
Delegations of 99 IPCC member countries
participated in the Eighth Session of Working
Group I in Shanghai on 17 to 20 January
2001 and approved the WGI SPM word-for-word.
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Q What are the IPCC Assessments ?
Robert Watson, IPCC Chair, John Houghton Ding
Yihui, WGI Co-chairs, 122 Coordinating Lead
Authors Lead Authors, 515 Contributing
Authors, 21 Review Editors, and 420 Expert
Reviewers (incl. govts). prepared the WG I
scientific assessment
http//www.ipcc.ch/
IPCC Madrid Nov 95
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Q What Biogeochemical Cycles control Atmospheri
c CO2 ?
The Natural Carbon Cycle (Pg-C Gton-C, Pg-C/yr)
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Q How have we perturbed CO2 ?
The Human Perturbation to the Carbon Cycle 1980s
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Q Where have CO2 emissions
come from?
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Q Where will energy-CO2 emissions come from?
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Q What about alternative energy sources
or conservation ?
OECD / IEA 2002
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Q What is the big uncertainty in future CO2 ?
Model Projections / Simulations of uptake of
Anthropogenic CO2 show possible saturation
effects.
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Q What is Projected for Atmospheric CO2 ?
IPCC 2001 Projections
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Q What about the other Greenhouse Gases
Aerosols?
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Q What Greenhouse Agents are Listed under Kyoto
?
listed in Annex A Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane
(CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6)
What are not ?
CFCs HCFCs (Montreal - OK) Sulfate
Aerosols Black Organic Carbon
Aerosols Tropospheric Ozone (O3) Carbon
monoxide (CO) Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)
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Q How does Energy Use control the old GHGases ?
CH4 emissions (600 Tg-CH4/yr) energy
use 18 biomass burning 6 pollution impact
on lifetime ??
N2O emissions (16 Tg-N/yr) industrial
8 biomass burning 3 agriculture 35
CFC HCFC emissions (ltlt 1 Tg/yr) refrigeration,
foam, propellant, cleaning phased out under
Montreal Protocol
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Q How does Energy Use control the new GHGases ?
PFCs CF4 ... (13 Gg/yr ) anthropogenic 10
0 aluminum, industrial
SF6 emissions (6 Gg/yr ) anthropogenic 100 i
nsulation, electrical switches
HFC emissions (100 Gg/yr ) anthropogenic 100
CFC partial replacements
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Q How does Energy Use control the Aerosols ?
sulfate SO2 emissions (110 Tg-S/yr) energy
use 67 biomass burning 2
Black Carbon emissions (12 Tg/yr) energy
use 55 biomass burning 45
Carbonaceous emissions (140 Tg/yr) energy
use 20 biomass burning 39
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Q How does Energy Use control the pollution
gases ?
CO emissions (2800 Tg-CO/yr) energy
use 32 biomass burning 25
NOX emissions (52 Tg-N/yr) energy
use 65 biomass burning 14
VOC emissions (600 Tg-C/yr) energy
use 28 biomass burning 6
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Q How do non-greenhouse Pollutants impact
Climate ?
CH4
CO
CH4
VOC
HFC
OH
HO2
NO
O3
CO, VOC, NOX (NONO2), CH4 control
Tropospheric Chemistry is the sink for CH4
HFCs the source for O3
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Q How does CO become an indirect greenhouse gas
?
OH
CO
CH4
O3
CO emissions are effectively equivalent to CH4
emissions 100 Tg-CO 5 Tg-CH4 (IPCC, 2001)
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OH
CO
CH4
O3
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Q How does short-lived NOx impact Climate ?
O3
NOX
OH
CH4
O3
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Anthropogenic GHGas Impact through Reactive
Pollutants to date
CH4 320 Tg(CH4)/y direct emission NOx 40
Tg(N)/y ? - 80 Tg(CH4)/y CO 1000 Tg/y ?
50 Tg(CH4)/y VOC 250 Tg/y ? 30 Tg(CH4)/y
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Q What are the range of projections ?
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Q What is the inertia of the climate system ?
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Q To Whom does all this get reported ?
Marrakech Nov 2001
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Q Who decides what actions to take ?
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Q Who decides what actions to take ?
COP-8
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Q What next ?
The rules for entry into force of the Kyoto
Protocol require 55 Parties to the Convention
to ratify (or approve, accept, or accede to)
the Protocol, including Annex I Parties
accounting for 55 of that groups carbon
dioxide emissions in 1990. as of Feb 2003
0.3
2.1
17.4
36.1
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UN Secretary-General receives Russias Kyoto
Protocol ratification Andrey Denisov, Russian
Permanent Representative to the UN and Kofi
Annan, UN Secretary-General "I am very glad to
announce that today I received the Russian
Federations instrument of ratification for the
1997 Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change.  I
congratulate President Putin and the Russian
Federation for their leadership in making it
possible for the Protocol to enter into force
as it will, 90 days from tomorrow, on 16 February
2005. "This is a historic step forward in the
worlds efforts to combat a truly global threat. 
Most important, it ends a long period of
uncertainty.  Those countries that have ratified
the Protocol, and which have been trying to
reduce emissions of greenhouse gases even before
its entry into force, now have a legally binding
obligation to do so. 
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"All countries must now do their utmost to combat
climate change and to keep it from undermining
our efforts to achieve the Millennium Development
Goals.  "I therefore take this opportunity to
urge those developed countries that have not
ratified the Protocol to ratify it and limit
their emissions. "The Parties to the Climate
Change Convention will have their next major
meeting in Buenos Aires from 6 to 17 December.  I
hope they will use that occasion to seize the
promising possibilities that have been opened up
by this major development. Statement
attributable to the Secretary-General upon
receiving Russian Federation ratification 18
November 2004
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The text of the Protocol to the UNFCCC was
adopted at the third session of the Conference of
the Parties to the UNFCCC in Kyoto, Japan, on 11
December 1997 it was open for signature from 16
March 1998 to 15 March 1999 at United Nations
Headquarters, New York. By that date the Protocol
had received 84 signatures. Those Parties that
have not yet signed the Kyoto Protocol may accede
to it at any time. The Protocol is subject to
ratification, acceptance, approval or accession
by Parties to the Convention. It shall enter into
force on the ninetieth day after the date on
which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention,
incorporating Annex I Parties which accounted in
total for at least 55 of the total carbon
dioxide emissions for 1990 from that group, have
deposited their instruments of ratification,
acceptance, approval or accession.
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150
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Q What Next ?
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Q Where Next ?
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Q What next - - - ?
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Q Who else is involved in Climate Change ?
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California AB 1493
Q Who else ? the States
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California AB 1493
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Q Who else ?
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Global Climate Change
is driven by local actions
Michael Prather Kavli Chair Professor Earth
System Science UC Irvine