Contrails form when aircraft fly through regions Supersaturate with respect to ICE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 23
About This Presentation
Title:

Contrails form when aircraft fly through regions Supersaturate with respect to ICE

Description:

CFC & HCFC emissions ( 1 Tg/yr) refrigeration, foam, propellant, cleaning ... CFC partial replacements. Anthropogenic control of Aerosols. sulfate = SO2 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:69
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 24
Provided by: prat154
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Contrails form when aircraft fly through regions Supersaturate with respect to ICE


1
U.N. FCCC, Bracknell, 25-27 Sep 2002 Experts
Meeting on Assessment of Contributions to
Climate Change Michael Prather University of
California at Irvine Completeness
Assessment What forcings are / should be
included? Validation What are the minimum
capabilities in simulating the current climate
system?
E S S
2
What Greenhouse Agents are listed under Kyoto ?
Annex A Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane
(CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6)
What are not ?
CFCs HCFCs (Montreal - OK) Sulfate
Aerosols Black Organic Carbon
Aerosols Tropospheric Ozone (O3) Carbon
monoxide (CO) Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)
3
What about indirect greenhouse gases under Kyoto
?
4
What Greenhouse Agents are forcing climate ?
5
Which Greenhouse Agents have a good historical
record ?
? CO2 ? CH4 ? N2O ? CFCs ? solar ? strat O3
? trop O3
  • ? sulfate
  • ? fossil fuel OC/BC
  • ? biomass OC/BC
  • ? mineral dust
  • ? aerosol indirect
  • land use /albedo

Which Greenhouse Agents are attributable ?
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
Anthropogenic control of the old GHGases
CH4 emissions (600 Tg-CH4/yr) fossil
fuels 17 biomass burning 5 landfills
7 ruminants 14 rice 9 pollution
(lifetime) ??
N2O emissions (16 Tg-N/yr) industrial
processes 7 biomass burning
3 agriculture 24 cattle/feedlots 12
CFC HCFC emissions (ltlt 1 Tg/yr) refrigeration,
foam, propellant, cleaning phased out under
Montreal Protocol
9
Anthropogenic control of the new GHGases
PFCs CF4 ... (13 Gg/yr ) anthropogenic
100 aluminum, industrial
SF6 emissions (6 Gg/yr ) anthropogenic 100 i
nsulation, electrical switches
HFC emissions (100 Gg/yr ) anthropogenic 100
CFC partial replacements
10
Anthropogenic control of Aerosols
sulfate SO2 emissions (110 Tg-S/yr) fossil
fuels 67 biomass burning 2
Black Carbon emissions (12 Tg/yr) fossil fuels
55 biomass burning 45
Carbonaceous emissions (140 Tg/yr) fossil
fuels 20 biomass burning 39
11
Anthropogenic control of the pollution gases
CO emissions (2800 Tg-CO/yr) fossil domestic
fuel 32 biomass burning 25
NOX emissions (52 Tg-N/yr) fossil
fuels 65 biomass burning 14 agriculture/soils
12
VOC emissions (600 Tg-C/yr) fossil
fuel 28 biomass burning 6
12
CO is an indirect greenhouse gas
OH
CO
CH4
O3
CO emissions are effectively equivalent to CH4
emissions 100 Tg-CO 5 Tg-CH4 (IPCC, TAR)
13
Anthropogenic Impact through Reactive
Pollutants 1750 - 2000
1800?2000 ?O3 ?OH CH4 4.6 DU - 30
NOX 4.1 14 CO 1.2 - 11 VOC
0.5 - 5 sum 10 DU - 32
observed 9 (4) ??
14
Effective Reactive Pollutant contribution to CH4
CH4 320 Tg(CH4)/y direct emission NOx 40
Tg(N)/y ? - 80 Tg(CH4)/y CO 1000 Tg/y ?
50 Tg(CH4)/y VOC 250 Tg/y ? 30 Tg(CH4)/y
15
(No Transcript)
16
Validation of key components from the historical
record is essential for credibility.
Why do this just to get relative impacts? If the
historical record in poorly reproduced, then the
model is in error or is missing key components
of climate change ? this challenges the accuracy
of even the relative national impacts and makes
the process likely to fail an IPCC review What
does this validation test? Both models and
emissions
17
Validation of key components from the historical
record is essential for credibility.
What is the minimal set of historical climate
parameters that (i) should be reproducible by
simple models and (ii) provides critical tests of
the climate change to date. FORCING CO2 record,
CH4 record, aerosols ??? RESPONSE surface T
(NH vs. SH ?), ocean Heat Content ? sea level
rise
18
mean CO2 CH4 1880 2000
19
Surface Temperature 1860 2000 ? NH SH
shows effect of aerosols
20
Ocean Heat Content (upper 300 m) 1945 2000
21
Sea Level Rise 1800 2000
22
Validation of key components from the historical
record is essential for credibility.
What combination of historical data does it take
to demonstrate that the relative attribution
calculation is valid without systematic errors
? total attributable forcing (missing
sources) correct chemistry/carbon
model (affects time-weighting of
emissions) correct indirect forcing correct
climate sensitivity (affects time-weighting of
forcing)
23
(No Transcript)
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com