Collecting Migration Data using Multi-topic HH surveys: the Albania Experience

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Collecting Migration Data using Multi-topic HH
surveys the Albania Experience

• Gero Carletto
• DECRG, The World Bank
• Jan 24, 2008

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The issues

• Lack of data, haphazard efforts
• Sources
• PopCensus (immigration internal, undercount
  frequency)
• Border crossings, admin records (undocumented?)
• Surveys (representative?). Little attention
• Remittances (official only).
• Definitions
• Migrant
• Permanent vs. temporary/seasonal/circular
• Returnees
• HH membership/headship

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The issues (contd)

• Sampling
• Rare event, clustered
• Probability vs. non-probability sampling
• Survey options
• Stand-alone vs. piggybacked
• Identification
• Remittances

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Albania the context

• Quasi-experimental setting
• 1990
• Huge outflows
• International (permanent vs. temporary)
• Internal
• Geography
• Piggyback approach (2002-05)
• Gradual
• Pilots and training

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ALSMS innovations

• HH membership
• Histories
• Networks
• Tracking migrants
• Identification

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Household membership

• Prototype LSMS definition
• Fertility module (2002)
• Underestimate if mother absent
• Relaxed definition (2005)
• Double counting?
• Extended roster

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Migration histories

• High mobility, internal and external
• Both permanent and temporary
• Permanent/long vs. shorter episodes (Smith and
  Thomas, 2003)
• Bound grid for hh members
• Clear time marks
• Up to 3 episodes for non-hh members
• Detailed characterization

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Migration histories
ID CODE 1990 1990 1991 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 1995 1995 1996 1996 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005
  C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M C M
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
                                                                 
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Networks

• Immediate family
• Children and spouse
• Time of migration (and return?)
• Siblings of HH head and spouse
• Destination, gender, occupation,
• Networks in 1990

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Modeling migration

• Hazard model
• Probability of migration in any given time period
  t, conditional on not having migrated up through
  time t-1
• Diffusion (time dimension)
• Time-varying covariates

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Hazard model
Coeff.
Network
Pyramid scheme
Shocks (illness, ) -
Age -
Gender -
Education
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Tracking migrants

• Contact info
• Process
• Greece only list of migrants with contacts
• 1st contact in Greece
• Return visit in Fall (phone cards)
• 2nd contact in Greece
• Interview
• High attrition
• No contact info
• Unable to locate
• Refusal (not high)
• Returnees/high mobility
• Selection bias(es) undocumented

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Identification

• Migration decision not random
• Instruments determinants of migration, not
  correlated with outcome of choice
• By being clever, it is often possible to come up
  with convincing instruments (Woolridge)
• Pre-1990 conditions
• Languages
• Propensity to move
• Network
• Distances

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Impact on policy

• Determinants of migration (by gender)
• Dynamic model
• Impact of migration at origin on
• Welfare
• Agriculture and livestock
• Business ownership
• Occupational choice
• 2003 and 2007 PA
• Long process. Dissemination?

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LSMSIV next steps

• HH membership/headship
• Imputing total remittances
• Better identification, matching
• Tracking
• Experimental design (?)