U.S. EPA Global Change Research Program: Getting the Job Done Right

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U.S. EPAGlobal Change Research ProgramGetting
the Job Done Right

• Board of Scientific Counselors
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• Global Change Research Program
• Washington, DC September 27, 2005

Kenneth A. Colburn Symbiotic Strategies,
LLC kcolburn_at_symbioticstrategies.com 617-784-6975
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Speaker Background

• Business Industry Association of NH, Energy
  Environment
• New Hampshires Air Director
• First GHG registry power sector 4-P laws.
• STAPPA Climate Chair
• Represented states at UNFCCC COPs last 10 years.
• NESCAUM Executive Director
• Center for Climate Strategies, etc.
• Climate planning processes CT, ME, AZ, NM, NC

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GCRP Hows It Doing? (How)

• GOAL Enhance likelihood of human health and
  environmental improvement by informing policy
  decisions in a timely fashion.
• Cornerstone for effective state local
  decisions If its not specific to here, its
  marginally useful.
• Place-Based state-specific approaches are the
  sine qua non for state local decision making.
• What information do decision makers need? Talk
  with them! (i.e., need stakeholder orientation)
• Some education often needed, but not one way!
• Creates upward spiral Stakeholder questions
  input gt better assessments gt more questions
  input...

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GCRP Hows It Doing? (What)

• Areas of focused assessment are very sound
• Air Quality
• Water Quality
• Human Health
• Ecosystems
• But We dont only want static assessments
  Teach us to fish
• Leverage, empower decision makers with tools and
  models

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Climate Risks
Climate Impacts
Defense (Respond)
Offense (Lead)
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Example Energy Opportunities
Higher
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
Lower
TIME
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Competitive Advantage Example

• Who will be first out of paper, and into
  furniture?
• UK has PRECIS EU has PRUDENCE Quebec has
  OURANOS what do U.S. states have to tune their
  economies?

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Vital Missing Tool Integrated Modeling Framework
for Air Quality
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Vital Missing Tool Integrated Modeling Framework
for Air Quality
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CMAQ
COBRA BenMAP
NE-MARKAL
REMI? IMPLAN?
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Key Conclusions (1)

• GCRP underpinning state air quality progress.
• GCRP is right-on-the-money with How What.
• Place-based approach
• Stakeholder orientation
• Areas of focused assessment
• Development of / support for air quality, health,
  energy, and economic models
• Bottom line When decision makers recognize
  that they need more info, youre doing the right
  thing

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Key Conclusions (2)

• Success isnt static states need
• More assessments
• Impact of climate change on air quality,
  especially ozone PM nonattainment
• Non-linear responses scare us greatly
• More models, modeling
• Economic modeling
• Adaptation options modeling
• Environmental health tracking
• Broader application communication
• Greater Level of Effort gt More Resources, but
  theres literally no more important or productive
  effort underway.

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Thank Youfor Your Timeand Attention!
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Is It Working in the States?

• Look at Connecticut (partial list)
• CGA approved 2005 CT Climate Action Plan.
• Clean cars (Pavley/LEV) hybrid tax incentives.
• Mandatory reporting, registry inventory.
• Energy Independence Act EE, RE, CHP, DG, etc.
• RPS renewable energy purchases.
• Energy efficiency standards for appliances.
• Environmentally preferable products.
• Agriculture, land preservation local food.
• NG Conservation Fund (proposed).
• Oil Conservation Fund (proposed).
• Diesel reductions (being proposed).

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NE-MARKAL

• Why MARKAL
• Readily available
• Multi-sector and expandable
• Flexible with respect to setting up a regional
  framework and user-imposed constraints
• Approach
• Stakeholder involvement
• Provide clear understanding of MARKAL (Structure,
  data requirements, use of model)
• Transparent process

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Vital Missing Tool Integrated Modeling Framework
for Air Quality
Global Climate Models
Regional-Scale (or Finer) Climate Models
Health/Valuation Function
Meteorology
Policy Goal
Emissions
Climate Impacts Models
Energy Model
Health Benefits Model
Air Quality Model
Expenditures
Ambient Concentrations Temp
Economic Model
Costs, Benefits, Adaptations due to Climate
Change
Health Effects Incidence Cost- Benefit
Key Economic Indicators
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Key MARKAL features

• Bottom-up, technology rich approach
• Essential for assessing programs where
  technological change is key
• Coherent and transparent framework
• Data assumptions are open and each result may be
  traced to its technological cause.
• Flexible
• Easy to modify technology and energy system
  descriptions to represent local conditions,
  energy and environmental policies, and "what if"
  scenarios
• Long history (gt20 years) of widespread use (gt50
  countries)

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NE-MARKAL Development Sequence

• Identify priority questions to be addressed
• Baseline (1999) Technology Characterization/Demand
  s
• Resource and power imports/exports
• Calibration
• Future technology and demand projections
• Complete baseline simulation