Interaction between economic and physical growth in the transport sector

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Interaction between economic and physical growth
in the transport sector

• Hein de Wilde
• Jos Sijm EPIST workshop, 19 April 2006

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Contents - Objectives - Key trends physical
growth - Main drivers (passengers / freight) -
Future outlook, energy use, CO2 - Conclusions -
Discussion
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Economic growth ? physical growth
transport ? - passengers -
freight - road - air - water -
rail
Objectives
Other drivers?! ?
? energy use ? CO2
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TRENDS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 1970-1998European
Conference of Ministers of Transport
GDP EU-15, 1970 100
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Increase of global passenger travel the sky is
the limit?
Schäfer, 2005
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Drivers for passenger transport

• Income levels
• Car ownership
• Geography, infrastructure, travel distances
  (home-work)
• Social factors e.g. leisure time, family
  structure
• Relative prices (including fuel)
• .

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Car Ownership per Capita and Personal Consumption
Expenditures, 1970 - 2000
IEA, 2004
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Travel time
Schäfer and Victor (2000)
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Driver travel budget higher budget ? higher
speed
Schäfer and Victor, 2000
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Driver travel budgethigher budget ? less
public transport more higher speed modes
PUBLIC TRANSPORT (1950-2000)

Schäfer, 2005
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Driver fuel prices (and other relative price
factors)
Passenger Car Travel and Car Fuel Intensity
versus Fuel Price, 1998
IEA, 2004
IEA, 2004
High fuel prices development of a fuel efficient
car fleet
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Drivers for freight transport

• - Production increases
• Globalisation, outsourcing of manufacturing
• Increase in the average length of hauls
• - Market integration (EU, NAFTA, APEC etc.)
• - Changes of consumer preferences
• - Efficiency improvements (load factor, vehicle
  size)
• - Transport infrastructure investment
• - ..

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Driver freight transport wealth, (1970 2000)
7000
6000
5000
4000
tkm per capita
3000
2000
1000
(Caïd, 2004)
0
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
GDP per capita (in 1995 US PPP)
US road freight
EU road freight
Japan road freight
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Driver freight (and passengers) geographic
conditions
Transportation Network Density (in km per 100 sqr
km), 2000, Source BTS
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Driver freight transport higher values ? faster
modes
Low GDP-share sector ? large transport demands
(e.g. agriculture) High GDP-share sector ?
smaller transport demand (manufactured goods) in
ton km, but not necessarily in costs and energy!
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Energy consumption for the transport sector,
2001(IEA and IFP, estimates)
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Saturation of energy use?
In contrastPer capita E-use in transport will
not saturate at high stages of economic growth
(within the next decades)
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Opposite trends in transport energy use per capita
Shift to faster and energy-intensive
modes Larger and more powerful cars Lower load
factors high Speed logistic chains

• improving fuel efficiency
• of all modes
• Higher load factor
• Passenger air transport

On balance Increasing energy use per capita!
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Economic growth and final energy consumption
several sectorsBased on IEA data, 1971 1998,
compiled by Schäfer, 2000
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Main trends and conclusions

• Strong coupling economic growth and transport.
• Rising income faster passenger transport modes,
  specialized high speed logistic freight chains ?
  increasing energy use!
• Air transport fastest growth, but road transport
  is by far dominant.
• Sectors with large contribution to GDP ? small
  transport demand (manufactured goods) in ton.km,
  but not in costs and energy!
• Very low price elasticity emission reduction
  policies complicated.
• No saturation! ? transport will become main
  energy consumer.

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Discussion..
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TRENDS IN THE EU, US AND JAPAN Passenger
Transport Trends by Modes
Caïd, 2004