Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks of, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments

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Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks
of, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments

• Dr Isabelle NIANG-DIOP
• University of Dakar (SENEGAL)

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What do we mean by..?

• Just ways to produce VA studies
• The main methodologies/frameworks
• The  first generation  IPCC guidelines 1994
• CGE work synthesis of first VA studies
  weakness of adaptation strategies
• The  second generation  2002-2003
• the Adaptation Policy Framework  adaptation
  oriented 
• The NAPAs
• Uncertainty-Risk decision making tools the
  UKCIP methodology

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The IPCC Technical Guidelines (Carter et al.,
1994)
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The IPCC Guidelines

• Step 1 Define the problem
• Goals of the assessment
• Exposure units to be studied (sectors,
  ecosystems,..)
• Study area (administrative, geographical,
  ecological units, )
• Time frame (time horizons)
• Data needs identify data requirements (type,
  source, quantity, quality,)
• The context of the study political, economic,
  global changes, etc.
• Step 2 Select the method

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The IPCC Guidelines

• Step 2 Select the method
• Experimentation
• Models biophysical, economic, integrated
• Analogues historical, geographical
• Expert judgement
• Step 3 Test the method
• Step 4 Select the scenarios
• The baselines climatological, environmental,
  socio-economic
• The scenarios mainly climate change scenarios
  (MAGICC-SCENGEN), environmental and
  socio-economic projections

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The IPCC Guidelines

• Step 5 Assess the impacts
• Qualitative assessments
• The use of models (CERES, Bruun rule, WATBAL,
  Holdride)
• Economic impacts cost benefit analysis
• Step 6 Assess autonomous adjustments
• Step 7 Evaluate adaptation strategies
• The seven steps approach

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Evaluation of adaptation strategies
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The IPCC methodology

• A number of derived methodologies
• The USCSP
• The UNEP Handbook
• Applied in a number of VA studies, and
  particularly in the Initial National
  Communications of Non Annex I Countries

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Other approaches

• The small islands approach, especially in the
  Pacific sparsity of data, the importance of
  traditional knowledge
• The vulnerability-resilience approach (Kay et
  al., 1993) applied in the coastal zone. The
  coastal zone was considered to be made of hard
  and soft systems. Vulnerability was ranked from
  3 to 0 and resilience from 0 to 3. The
  difference between the two being called the
  Sustainable Capacity Index

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A rapid evolution

• The CGE work based on synthesis and analysis of
  VA studies
• The growing recognition of the importance of
  adaptation for NAI countries
• A context of more frequent extreme events
• First recognition of the need to integrate
  adaptation strategies into planning development
• Greater exchange with other communities
  disaster, risk and uncertainty managers

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As a result

• The new guidelines for the preparation of
  national communications of Non Annex I Parties
• http//unfccc.int/resource/userman_nc.pdf
• A number of new methodologies, approaches,
  frameworks the so-called  second generation 
  methodologies
• The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)
• The National Adaptation Programmes of Actions
• The UKCIP  Climate change risk-uncertainty-decisi
  on making framework

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The second generation methodologies Whats new ?

• Less prescriptive
• Better centered on adaptation
• Consider adaptation in the development context
• Include stakeholders participation
• Take into consideration current as well as future
  vulnerability

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The Adaptation Policy Framework

• Developed by an interdisciplinary team under UNDP
  
• Propose practical guidance to develop an
  adaptation strategy for climate change
• Based on a 5 steps approach
• Supported by 9 Technical Papers
• With a Users Guidebook already available (2003)
• http//www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm

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The Adaptation Policy Framework
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The NAPAs

• The objective is to develop action programmes
  adressing the current and urgent needs of LDCs
  in adaptation to climate change
• Annotated Guidelines for the Preparation of
  National Adaptation Programmes of Action (2002)
• http//unfccc.int/text/program/sd/ldc/documents/an
  nguide.pdf

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Synthesis
Public consultation to identify potential
adaptation actions
Define criteria
Design projects
Submission and dissemination
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The UKCIP method CC risk, uncertainty and
decision-making framework

• The main objectives are to allow decision makers
  to
• Take in account risk and uncertainty associated
  with climate variability and future climate
  change
• Identify good adaptation options, in particular
  no regret options
• Framework in 8 stages
• http//www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert/risk_uncert.ht
  ml

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Identify problem
Define decision-making criteria
Monitor
Assess risks
Implement decision
Identify options
Appraise options
No
No
Yes
Criteria met?
Problem definition?
Yes
Make decision
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New/improved tools

• Regional climate change scenarios
• The AIACC project
• Vulnerability indices
• Improved models
• New sectors emerged (health for example)

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You want more?

• Look at the  Compendium on methods and tools to
  evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation
  to climate change 
• http//unfccc.int/program/mis/meth

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Thanks for your attention !