The End of National Security ' ' ' As we know it

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The End of National Security. . . As we know it
John L. Petersen The Arlington Institute
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National Security

• The most fundamental responsibility of government
• Drives every thing else in one way or another
• More money spent for national security than any
  other national function

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Our notion of security is fundamentally changing
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Alternative Futures
Two Front War
9/11
UNCERTAINTY
Iraq War
Mortgaging the Future
Learning
UNCERTAINTY
The Great Islamic War
No Learning
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This is increasingly a Transnational world
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Transnational Flows

• Increased Foreign Direct Investment
• Potential host countries are attempting to reduce
  restrictions on entry and operation (in their
  markets) to create an environment that is more
  attractive to investors (example lower tax
  levels)
• Value and Ideas
• Increased interaction has led to an increased and
  accelerated sharing of values and ideas
• Pollution
• Refugees (potentially causing destabilization in
  receiving country) Food Shipments (United Nations
  Food Program, NGOs)
• Arms
• Jobs (Outsourcing)
• Number of people in India performing computer
  jobs for U.S. companies is likely to increase
  from 177,000 in 2002 to 1.2 million in 2008
• Information (785,710,022 people use the Internet
  worldwide)

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Transnational Security Flows and Feedbacks
Values and Ideas
Arms
Food
Jobs
Information
Refugees
Foreign Direct Investment
Pollution
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Most Transnational Flows have been facilitated by
increases in communications technology
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Transnational Standards Regulating Common Spaces
Convention on Biological Diversity (1993)
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Commons Preservation
Cooperation
Commons Regulations
Treaty Law
Commons Exploitation
Customary Law
Commons Usage
Friendly Neighbors
Neighborly Trade
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Transnational Problems

• Economic disparity (between groups and states)
• Regional youth bulges
• Food and water shortages
• Failing states, migration, and terrorism
• Disease mobility

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Transnational Security Problems
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Transnational Wild Cards

• Rapid Climate Change
• Energy Revolution
• Nuclear/Biological/Radiological Attack on a Major
  City
• Disease Outbreak
• Human Cloning

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Driving Forces Dramatically Increased
Capabilities

• Tools today are cheaper, more powerful, and more
  accessible
• Illicit Materials and WMD, Technological
  Advancements
• Nuclear Weapons/Materials, Chemical Weapons,
  Dirty Bombs
• Bio and Nanotechnology
• Modified humans
• Modified foods

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Capabilities Cont.

• Information and Communication Technology
• Internet changing society and the way information
  is communicated.
• More threats and opportunities as technology
  becomes democratized

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Characteristics of the Emerging World

• Proliferation of communication, weapons, and
  information technologies
• Highly accelerated rate of change
• Global complexity weakening of
  borders/boundaries, integrated markets,
  climate change, and communications
  Interdependency of individuals, groups, events,
  and issues
• Non-linear development and progression
• Pervasive marketplace competition of ideas,
  political systems, beliefs, and cultures

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Fundamental Mismatch

• Current National Security Fundamentals
• National Security equals Defense
• Increasingly security is more than national
  defense it is transnational defense
• The movement is toward a larger, more inclusive
  understanding of national security that begins to
  value the larger system as well as the local
  system

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Creating a new transnational security

• Core Value Change
• Cooperation increasingly equals security
• The New System Must
• Develop a shared vision of security
• Understand and adapt to increasing complexity
• Incorporate a more global notion of national
  interests
• Share intelligence

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Punctuated Equilibrium
Progress

• Mammals
• 50 Million
• Years

Agriculture- 10,000
Homo Sapiens- 130,000 years

• Vertebrates
• 500 Million
• Years

Early Man 4.5 Million Years
Cities/Towns- 5,500
Information - ?
Industrialization- 500
Multiple Cell Life - 1 Billion Years
Single Cell Life - 3.5 Billion Years
Biological Evolution
Cultural Evolution
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Major Trends
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Increasing Interdependency And Complexity
?
?
Security as Usual
Crisis/ Wild Card
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Possible Timeframe
Source Adopted from H Tibbs, 1997
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John L. Petersen

• The Arlington Institute
• johnp_at_arlingtoninstitute.org
• www.arlingtoninstitute.org

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Transnational Security System
Shared Vision
Cooperation
Adapt to Complexity
New Core Values