How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and Power to Create the Future

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How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and
Power to Create the Future

• Alexander N. Christakis, PhD
• President, Institute for 21st Century Agoras
• www.GlobalAgoras.org

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How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and
Power to Construct the Future in
Co-Laboratories of Democracy
Alexander N. Christakis Information
Age / February 2006
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The Historic Challenge

• "I would not give a whit for the simplicity this
  side of complexity, but I would give my life for
  the simplicity on the far side of complexity." 
• O. W. Holmes

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Three Fundamental Premisesfor Participative
Democracy

• True dialogue is essential for participative
  democracy
• True dialogue is difficult in the Information Age
  complexity demands that we address issues
  collaboratively, systematically, and
  systemically and
• To address Information Age issues systemically,
  we need the support of the processes developed
  through the Science of Dialogic Design.

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Three Axioms of the Science of Dialogic Design

• No single observer has the complete picture of
  complex problems
• Everyone has limits for the amount of information
  they can process at any one time and
• In order to make judgments, we need to compare
  similar things.

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Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of
Dialogic Design
Consensus Methods _ 1972 through 1982

• Nominal Group Technique
• Interpretive Structural Modeling
• DELPHI
• Options Field
• Options Profile and
• Trade-off Analysis.

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Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of
Dialogic Design
Language Patterns _ 1970 through 1989

• Elemental observation
• Problematique
• Influence tree pattern
• Options field pattern
• Options profile/scenario pattern
• Superposition pattern and
• Action plan pattern.

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Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of
Dialogic Design
Application Time Phases _ 1989 through 2001

• Discovery
• Designing and
• Action.

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Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of
Dialogic Design
Key Role Responsibilities _ 1982 through 2002

• Context Inquiry Design Team
• Content Stakeholder/Designers and
• Process Facilitation Team

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Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of
Dialogic Design
Stages of Interactive Inquiry _ 1989 through 1995

• Definition or Anticipation
• Design of Alternatives
• Decision and
• Action Planning.

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Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of
Dialogic Design
Supportive Technology _ 1981 through 1995

• Collaborative Space
• Collaborative Software

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Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of
Dialogic Design
Dialogue Laws _ 2001 through 2003

• RequisiteVariety (Ashby)
• Requisite Parsimony (Miller)
• Requisite Saliency (Boulding)
• Meaning and Wisdom (Peirce)
• Authenticity and Autonomy (Tsivacou) and
• Evolutionary Learning (Dye)

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Requisite Evolutionary Learning and the Erroneous
Priorities Effect

• Whenever observations made by stakeholders in
  the context of a complex designing situation are
  interdependent, assigning priorities for action
  on the basis of aggregating individual
  stakeholder importance voting leads to the
  erroneous priorities effect and to ineffective
  actions. The effective priorities for action
  emerge after an evolutionary inquiry of the
  interdependencies among the observations through
  a dialogue focusing on influence voting.

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Evolutionary Learningand the Erroneous
Priorities Effect
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Components of the Science Operational in
Designing Phase
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Some Graphic Language Patterns of the Science
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The Six Dialogue Laws

• Ashby's Law of Requisite Variety
• APPRECIATION OF THE DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES
  OF OBSERVERS

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The Six Dialogue Laws

• Miller's Law of Requisite Parsimony
• STRUCTURED DIALOGUE IS REQUIRED TO AVOID THE
  COGNITIVE OVERLOAD OF OBSERVERS

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The Six Dialogue Laws

• Boulding's Law of Requisite Saliency
• THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF OBSERVATIONS CAN
  ONLY BE UNDERSTOOD THROUGH COMPARISONS WITHIN AN
  ORGANIZED SET

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The Six Dialogue Laws

• Peirce's Law of Requisite Meaning
• MEANING AND WISDOM ARE PRODUCED IN A DIALOGUE
  ONLY WHEN THE OBSERVERS SEARCH FOR RELATIONSHIPS
  OF SIMILARITY, PRIORITY, INFLUENCE, etc. WITHIN A
  SET OF OBSERVATIONS

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The Six Dialogue Laws

• Tsivacou's Law of Requisite Autonomy in
  Distinction-Making
• DURING DIALOGUE IT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT
  THE AUTONOMY AND AUTHENTICITY OF EACH OBSERVER IN
  DRAWING DISTINCTIONS

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The Six Dialogue Laws

• Dye's Law of Requisite Evolutionary Learning
• LEARNING OCCURS IN A DIALOGUE AS THE
  OBSERVERS SEARCH FOR INFLUENCE RELATIONSHIPS
  AMONG THE MEMBERS OF A SET OF OBSERVATIONS

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Influence Voting Question

• Supposing that in a dialogue on a complex
  Information Age issue the participants were able
  to implement
• (PRINCIPLE A DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES) 
• Will this SIGNIFICANTLY enhance their capacity to
  implement
• (PRINCIPLE B STRUCTURED DIALOGUE)
• ?

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Influence Voting Question

• Supposing that in a dialogue on a complex
  Information Age issue the participants were able
  to implement
• (PRINCIPLE B STRUCTURED DIALOGUE)  
• Will this SIGNIFICANTLY enhance their capacity to
  implement
• (PRINCIPLE A DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES)
• ?

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A Tree of Meaning
Effective Action
MEANING AND WISDOM
Level I
UNDERSTANDING IMPORTANCE
Level II
APPRECIATION OF DIVERSITY
Level III
LEARNING
Level IV
AUTONOMY
Level V
STRUCTURED DIALOGUE
Level VI
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Community Co-laboratory of Democracy
 
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Voting on Relative Importance
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Influence Tree of Intentions of the Future of
Our Community
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Interpretation of Influence Map
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What is the Institute for 21st Century Agoras?

•   The Institute for 21st Century Agoras is a
  volunteer-driven organization dedicated to
  vigorous democracy on the model of that practiced
  in the agoras of ancient Greece. It employs
  Co-Laboratories of Democracy that enable civil
  dialogue in complex situations.

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What does Agoras mean?

•   The agoras were the vital centers of the Greek
  cities. Their outdoor markets and convention
  halls where gossip mixed with politics. The agora
  of Athens was the birthplace of democracy. Here
  the town's citizens discussed pressing issues and
  made decisions on the basis of popular vote.