Is Kumgangsan the beginning or end of the road Prospects and Problems for the development of DPRK in

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Is Kumgangsan the beginning or end of the
road?Prospects and Problems for the development
of DPRK inbound tourism

• Tim Beal
• Victoria University of Wellington
• New Zealand

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Overview

• Background to the paper
• Politics of DPRK tourism
• Contemporary international tourism
• DPRK tourism
• Conclusion

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Background to this paper

• Four problems expertise, data, currency and
  politics

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1 - Expertise

• Not a Koreanologist, but
• Have visited DPRK twice ( ROK)
• Maintain website
• http//www.vuw.ac.nz/caplabtb/dprk/

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2 lack of data

• Data on DPRK tourism is very limited and
  fragmentary
• Data on international tourism and ROK tourism is
  plentiful
• This paper complements a paper given in
  Washington in June
• Used data on international/Regional/ROK tourism
  to identify potential for DPRK

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3 currency

• Situation is changing constantly
• Eg Kumgangsan is collapsing one day, saved the
  next

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4 politics

• International tourism is affected by wider
  political and economic events
• September 11 attack on US coup in Fiji
• DPRK tourism is more political than most
• Eg Kumgangsan tours started for political reasons
• Have been rescued for political reasons
• Deterioration in political situation would have
  devastating impact
• US citizens were forbidden to travel to DPRK

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The paradox of DPRK tourism

• DPRK is an industrial economy (45 of GDP) but
  tourism as great a share of foreign earnings as
  Caribbean
• Tourism requires peace but still in state of
  war with major actual and potential sources
• ROK, USA, Japan
• Negative international image
• Derives substantial earnings
• Has huge tourism potential

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The Politics of DPRK tourism

• Tourism originally not commercial but winning
  friends and influencing people
• Example essay competition run by korea-dpr.com

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Politics underlies KGS

• North
• is a noble national project which started and
  has been under way in reflection of the unanimous
  aspiration of all the fellow countrymen after
  national reconciliation and unity and the
  reunification of the country and the wishes of
  the South Koreans to visit Mt. Kumgang (KCNA)

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South

• Both Hyundai and ROK Government have been driven
  by political considerations
• ROK tourists to KGS not just the sightseeing
  but that they could set their foot on the long
  forbidden half of motherland. For students in
  particular, the four-day tour is better than 100
  classroom lectures about their nation and
  history (Korea Herald)

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United States

• DPRK has accused the US of hampering GGS
• No evidence
• Bush administration clouded Korean sunshine
• DPRK retaliated by freezing contacts with South

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Under the ice

• N-S contacts continued at a lower level
• In particular, some progress on KGS
• 8th June agreement
• Different and lower fee structure designation of
  SEZ, land route

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Resumption of N-S talks

• Since paper was written ministerial talks have
  resumed
• DPRK initiative after fall of Lim Dong-won
• But without movement on Washington-Pyongyang
  relations
• KGS was one of the main items on agenda
• Agreed to have official-level talks on 4 October
  to discuss land route

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Contemporary International tourism

• 11 September events will have unknown impact on
  projections in paper
• Korea's travel industry is reeling from the
  impact (Korea Herald 20 Sep)
• Nevertheless, tourism has been and probably will
  continue to be major component of global economy

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2000

• World tourism grew 7.4
• 698 million international arrivals
• Receipts of US476 billion
• ROK is a small player, but
• Tourism is growing importance to ROK
• ROK experience can offer pointers/example to DPRK
• Joint ventures (eg border airport)

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ROK tourism

• Being close to Japan and China tourism could
  become ROK mega industry of future
• Sports events have positive impact
• 2002 World Cup
• Beijing Olympics?

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DPRK tourism
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Sources and destinations

• ROK major source
• Mainly to KGS
• 400,000 Nov 98 June 01
• China
• Sinuiju
• Rajin-Sonbong
• Europeans.Aus, NZers

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Destinations

• Kumgangsan
• Myohyangsan
• Paektusan
• Pyongyang
• Rajin-Songbong
• Kaesong
• Historical attraction
• Close to Seoul

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Conclusion

• Tourism will probably still be growth industry
• Especially in Northeast Asia
• DPRK faces huge political and infrastructural
  constraints
• But if it can capture modest share of
  international tourism then

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Impacts

• Economic
• Foreign exchange
• Infrastructure development
• Political and social
• Can contribute to political and social
  development