MIT Energy Initiative

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Domestic Resource Potential

The Role of Natural Gas Marc
conference Oklahoma city, oklahomaa June 17, 2008
MIT Energy Initiative

• Melanie A. Kenderdine, Associate Director
• MIT Energy Initiative

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DOE Budget Breakdown FY 08 Budget Request


MIT Energy Initiative
Assuming Office of Science As Basic Strategic
Energy RD
Assuming Office of Science As Basic, Not
Strategic, Research

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DOE Applied Energy RD FY 06 Funding
Fossil Fuels 430 M Coal 85 -- Oil 7 -- Gas 8
Renewables 386 M Bio 23 -- Solar 21 --
Hydrogen 39 -- Wind 10 --
Geothermal 6
MIT Energy Initiative
Nuclear 224 M


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GAO, 07-106, December, 2006
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Energy Research Investments

• In the U.S. public and private spending on
  energy-technology RDD totals only 5-6 billion
  per year, less than one percent of what this
  country spends for electricity and fuels.
• In a 45 trillion world economy, 3 trillion
  for energy, total public and private investments
  in energy RDD is in the range of 15-20 billion,
  one half a percent of energy expenditures and
  0.03 percent of world GDP.

MIT Energy Initiative


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Source Holdren, John, Policy Innovatoins,
Spring, 2006,
MIT
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Scale of the Technology Challenge

• The replacement cost of today's global
  energy-supply systemall of the power plants,
  transmission lines, drilling rigs, pipelines,
  refineries, coal minesis in the range of 12
  trillion
• Reversing the profile of the fuel mix in 40
  years 80 fossil fuels to 80 non-fossil fuels

MIT Energy Initiative


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Source Holdren, John, Policy Innovatoins,
Spring, 2006,
MIT
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Global Primary Energy 550 ppmv
Transport Buildings
MIT Energy Initiative
Bio-mass
Coal
Nuc
Gas

CCS
Oil

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Greenhouse Gas Stabilization Triangle
There are 15 options that would achieve a wedge
each of carbon avoidance. These include
MIT Energy Initiative
-- Buildings
-- Coal to CCGT
Straight line increase to 14GtC/Yr.
-- CCS
-- Efficient Power
-- Vehicle Efficiency
-- Nuclear Fission
-- Wind Electricity

Constant carbon at 7GtC/Yr for
50 years

2000 2010 2020 2030
2040 2050 2060
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8

Oil/Gas/Coal Reserves By Region
57
36
27
N. America
E. Europe
26
36
18
MIT Energy Initiative
7
30
W. Europe
9
3
5
8
3
Asia/Oceania
Middle East

8
8
C/S. America
4
6
6
2
Africa

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Oil
Gas
Coal
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook,
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US LNG Suppliers


378
Trinidad
MIT Energy Initiative
Algeria
Qatar
Nigeria
Oman
Malaysia

53
50
14
9
3

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Source Global LNG Market, EIA, 2003
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Developing Conventional/ Unconventional Gas
Resources
MIT Energy Initiative
303

284
Technically
Recoverable Resource Base 1,969 Tcf

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Developing Unconventional Gas Resources
Technology Dissemination
Idea Generation
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Cost 140 M over 10 yrs CBM now 10 of domestic
production

Proof of Concept
Demonstration

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Natural Gas Supply RD Program
Total Program
50 M/yr for 10yrs.
Program Funding From Federal Oil and Gas Royalties
Department of Energy
12.5 M Complementary Program
37.5 M /yr Research Program
MIT Energy Initiative
Fossil Energy Office
Managing Consortium
NETL
In-House RD Program
Unconventional 14.6 M
Ultra-deepwater 15.75 M

TOTAL PROGRAM 500 M Not Subject to
Appropriation
Small Producer Program 3.75 M
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CBM Small Investment, Large Return


MIT Energy Initiative
Return on RD investment 34 to 1

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Global Unconventional Gas Resources
MIT Energy Initiative

World Total 32,560 tcf
roughly 300 years of supply

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Source NPC Oil and Gas Study, 2007
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Electricity Natural Gas Efficiency
Consumer Costs 11 billion
Consumer Savings 32.4 billion
MIT Energy Initiative


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Source Efficiency Impacts on Gas Markets, ACEE,
2005).
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• Status of Federal Natural Gas Policy
  
• Little attention except to encourage increased
  imports
• Virtually all federal programs have been
  eliminated
• Efficiency programs scaled back/ focused
  exclusively on electricity

MIT Energy Initiative


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Focus on Energy The 110th Congress
Far West Energy Demand Growth
DORGAN
Dingell
Coal/ Ethanol States
SCHUMER
Leadership
Appropriations
Authorizers
Obey
MIT Energy Initiative
REID
Southwest Coal, Oil, Gas, Solar
Hobson
DURBIN
ENSIGN
Boehner
Hoyer
Emanuel
Pelosi
BYRD
Rahall
Lewis
Visclosky
Blunt
Boucher
McCONNELL
Gordon
DOMENICI
Cole
Clyburn
BINGAMAN

LOTT
Barton
COCHRAN
Hall
STEVENS
Young
Young
Putnam

INOUYE
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