The Age Boom is Coming: Implications for Our Aging Society - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – The Age Boom is Coming: Implications for Our Aging Society PowerPoint presentation | free to view - id: 4a2f9-ZDc1Z



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

The Age Boom is Coming: Implications for Our Aging Society

Description:

Peter Drucker's Insights on Why Aging Matters (Conference Board Review Nov/Dec 2000) ... is woefully unprepared for the flood of aging baby boomers (IoM, 2008) ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:90
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 75
Provided by: Wil4150
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: The Age Boom is Coming: Implications for Our Aging Society


1
The Age Boom is Coming Implications for Our
Aging Society
  • Kate Wilber, PhD
  • Davis School of Gerontology, USC
  • California Association of Area Agencies Board
    Meeting and Retreat
  • September 24, 2008

2
Boomer Aging What is Over the Horizon?
3
How will the baby boomers age?
4
How will the Baby Boomers Age?
5
Topics/Themes
  • Demographics of an aging society will drive
    change
  • Longevity
  • Diversity
  • Characteristics of the Baby Boomers
  • Characteristics of the Environment 2008
  • Health care delivery is costly, ignores chronic
    care and is a nightmare to navigate
  • Work, retirement and manpower issues
  • Threats
  • Trends and Innovations

6
Pop Quiz
  • In the year 2025Will the age of the US
    population be older, younger, or basically the
    same as Sweden in 2000?
  • What years were the Baby Boomers born?
  • How many baby boomers are there currently living
    in the US?
  • What is the age at which current workers say they
    plan to retire?
  • Peter Drucker and David Walker, (Comptroller
    General of the United
    States) agree that the most dominant trend we
    face is?

7
Peter Druckers Insights on Why Aging Matters
(Conference Board Review Nov/Dec 2000)
  • Single dominant factor for all countries will be
    population changes.
  • The biggest and fastest growing population group
    determines the mindset and the mood.

8
Who are the Baby Boomers?
  • Generation born between 1946 and 1964
  • Currently the oldest are 62 the youngest are 44
  • About 80 million people

9
Who are the Baby Boomers?
10
US 65 Population is Becoming More Culturally
Diverse
11
Baby Boomer CharacteristicsEducation
12
Are Baby Boomers Better Educated than their
parents?
13
Baby Boomer Characteristics
  • Sociodemographic Indicators
  • Two-thirds are married
  • 18 separated or divorced
  • More likely to be childless (almost 20) or to
    have small families (fertility rate 1.9)
  • compares to 10 3.4 earlier generation)
  • 12 live alone
  • 4 are linguistically isolated
  • 75 are employed
  • Income
  • 8.5 below poverty
  • 21 within 200 of poverty

14
Costs Comparing early boomers with current
elders 65 Older American 2008 Key Indicators of
Well being. Federal Interagency Forum on Aging
Related Statistics
15
Baby Boomer Facts From AARP
  • Boomers are staying in the workforce longer than
    the previous generationonly 11 want to stop
    working completely
  • Only 6 plan to down size to smaller homes in the
    next 5 years
  • 82 use the internet for email, instant
    messaging, downloading music or movies, financial
    transactions and online gaming
  • One-quarter are empty nesters, 37 currently live
    with children in their home
  • 9 are wealthy (have income of 150,000/yr).
  •  

16
Sources of Income Four Legged Stool
17
20 of Baby Boomers Live with a Disability
  • Sensory
  • 2.5
  • Physical
  • 7
  • Mental Health
  • 4
  • Personal care limitations
  • 2
  • Mobility limitations
  • 7
  • Disability that affects work
  • 13
  • More than 1disability
  • 10

18
Disability and Placement are not one way streets
Getting worse/getting better
19
Current Housing
  • 78 Home owners
  • 12 own free and clear
  • 2/3rds live in single family homes (67)
  • 6 live in Mobile homes
  • 5 in attached homes
  • 17 Renters
  • 5 live in group quarters

20
Housing Problems
  • Without complete plumbing (.61)
  • Income kitchen (.5)
  • No phone (2)
  • No heating fuel (.7)
  • No vehicle (6)
  • Homeless
  • Up to 30 are 50

21
Who are California's Baby Boomers? (from US
Census)
  • More than 10 million live in CA
  • 51 female
  • 64 married 14 never married18
    divorced/separated
  • 12 live alone half (49) live with
    spouseothers
  • 18 report a disability
  • 7.5 in poverty and 9.5 near poverty (lt200)

22
Californias Diversity
  • Current diversity
  • CA Latinos30 US13
  • CA Asian-American12 US4
  • 95 of CAs 65 speaks English
  • Baby-boomers not the stereotype
  • 40 African American, Latino, or Asian
  • 30 foreign born
  • Future diversity (2020)
  • Latinos 65 will increase 3Xs
  • Non-Hispanic Caucasian will increase 50
  • Diversity among California Communities

23
Demographics of an Aging Society
  • Population aging is driven by
  • Reduced Mortality/Increase longevity
  • Decreased fertility
  • Changing fundamental age distribution in the US
  • 65 population will double the first 25 years of
    this century (35 million to 70 million)

24
Trend in of 65 Individuals in US from 1900 to
2030
25
(No Transcript)
26
(No Transcript)
27
Population of Sweden 2006
28
Los Angeles County- 1990 East Los Angeles
Beverly Hills
29
Dependency Ratio
  • ( people under age 18) ( people over 65)
  • people ages 18-65
  • Calculates of people depending on money, goods,
    services provided by workforce divided by of
    workers

30
Trend in Dependency Ratio in US from 1900 to 2030
31
Trend in of Distribution for Dependents and
Non-Dependents in US from 1900 to 2050
32
Baby Bloomers now in their prime are (US
Census Bureau News, 3/9/06)
  • Healthier disability rates declining
  • Better educated
  • Higher income
  • More diverse
  • Living Longer

33
Longevity/Life Expectancy
  • Competing models
  • 2 reduction in mortality/year (Japan)
  • Rates similar to past (.6 annually)
  • Implications
  • Social Security Administration projects someone
    born in 2030 life expectancy84
  • Given the 2 assumption life expectancy for
    someone born in 2030104

34
Diversity (US Census Projections)
http//www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/a
rchives/population/012496.html
  • 2030All baby boomers will be 65
  • 20 of the population will be 65
  • 2039The working population will be more than 50
    minority
  • 2042MinoritiesThe Majority
  • 2050The 85 will triple to 19 million
  • 2050The working population will be more than 30
    Latino

35
Diversity with the cohorts What has shaped your
life?
  • Identify 2-3 world events that defined your life?
  • What music do you associate with your childhood
    and adolescence?
  • What television shaped you as a child?

36
Different Experiences of different Cohorts in
the Baby Boom Generation
37
Variation Among Boomers
  • Early Boomers (1948-1955)
  • Civil Rights
  • Vietnam War
  • Assignations (JFK, RFK, MLK)
  • Late Boomers (1956-1964)
  • Watergate
  • Stagflation
  • Shared
  • Cold War

38
Problems on the Horizon
  • Changing health and wellness
  • Obesity
  • Toxins
  • Pandemic
  • Dementing Illnesses
  • Crises in Entitlements
  • Problems that go unaddressed in Medicare and
    Social Security
  • Generational Equity Issues
  • Lack of investment in younger generations that
    will economically support Baby Boomers
  • (education, health care, opportunities)

39
Obesity
  • One-third of the US population and one-third of
    baby boomers
  • Causes 300,000 deaths annually
  • Rivals cancer and heart disease as leading causes
    of death
  • 13.2 million older Americans will have
    Alzheimer's disease (AD) by 2050 (Evans 2003,
    Archives of Neurology)
  • Currently 4.5 million

40
Projected Rates of AD
Year Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85
Total   2000 0.3 2.3 1.8 4.5   2010 0.3 2.4
2.4 5.1   2020 0.3 2.6 2.8 5.7   2030 0.5
3.8 3.5 7.7   2040 0.4 5.0 5.6 11.0   2050
0.4 4.8 8.0 13.2
41
Impact of Changing Demographics
  • Those at Highest Risk (Low income/Less
    education) More chronic care services
  • Increases in LTC need based on age-related
    chronic illness disability
  • High health care inflation
  • Need for more manpower resources Families and
    informal caregivers provide most of the care
    over 250 billion in 2000

42
The Retirement Landscape 2007 Federal Budget
(Concord Coalition)
  • Entitlements (Social Security, Medicare,
    Medicaid) comprise 42 of the Fed Budget

43
Addressing Ageism and Age Anxiety Young _at_ Heart
  • Less anxiety
  • Older age
  • Good health
  • Not poor
  • Knowledge about aging
  • Regular (at least weekly) contact with older
    people

44
Change Our Thinking Bill Thomas
  • By lionizing youth and using the benchmarks of a
    healthy adulthood as the gold standard of
    well-being, contemporary society has created a
    simple but radical reinterpretation of age and
    aging.
  • Old age has been recast as a merciless descent
    from the apex of youth a hurling fall and a
    peculiar form of brokenness that must be resisted
    with every available means
  • (What are old people for?
  • VanderWick Burnham, 2004 p. 84)

45
The Current Context Threats and Our Aging Society
  • Debt Deficit (more in a minute)
  • Money spent servicing debt
  • Current Bailouts Financial crisis
  • Mortgage crisis
  • Globalization
  • Loss of manufacturing jobs (US produces half of
    what we consume)
  • Foreign creditors
  • Commodity inflation
  • Energy/oil shortage
  • Climate change

46
The Current Context for Elders
  • Reduced pensions
  • More defined contributions/fewer defined
    benefits
  • Health care costs/inefficiencies/poor outcomes
  • Increasing personal dept
  • Largest increase in bankruptcy aged 55
  • 1/4 of Boomers have no savings or investments
  • Low level of savings
  • Increasing unemployment
  • Increasing health and wealth disparities

47
Debt http//www.concordcoalition.org/learn/debt/na
tional-debt
  • Current Federal Debt is over 9.5 trillion
  • 9,652,942,800,000 (9-20-08)
  • http//www.concordcoalition.org/learn/debt/nationa
    l-debt
  • 31,000/person in US
  • Consumer dept (excluding mortgages)
  • 2.5 Trillion (8,333/person and
    18,600/taxpayer)
  • Bailouts for the financial and mortgage crises1
    trillion secured by assets
  • Lack of savings, earning options, and safety net
    to fall back on

48
Income Social Security
  • Replaces about 42 of the final wage earned for a
    typical worker (full career, average wage)
  • Social Security provides 3/4ths of income for the
    bottom 60 of earners at retirement
  • The US has one of the highest average retirement
    ages (63) among developed countries
  • College educated remain in the labor force longer
  • We can expect to see Baby Boomers stay in the
    workforce longer

49
Chronic Care Consumers
  • In 2001, 12 million people in the U.S. used
    long-term care
  • 57 were 65
  • 40 were adults under the age of 65
  • 3 were children

50
Health Care Costs
  • 1.9 trillion in 2004 (16 of GDP)
  • 6,423 per person
  • More than 2.5 times the 717 billion in 1990 (13
    of GDP)
  • More than 7 times the 255 billion in 1980 (9.1
    of GDP).
  • Estimated 3.6 trillion by 2014 19 of GDP or
    about 11,045 per person

51
(No Transcript)
52
Problems with Health Care
  • Outdated acute care delivery system
  • Medical/social services are fragmented,
    disjointed, duplicative, inefficient
  • Multiple/mutually exclusive funding streams
  • Incompatible regulatory requirements
  • Disconnected bureaucratic authority
  • Lack of integrated information systems
  • Chronic conditions impair functioning affecting
    quality of life create dependencies
  • LTC is ignored

53
Health Care Score Card (Commonwealth Fund)
  • 2007, more than 75 million adults42 percent of
    all adults ages 19 to 64were either uninsured or
    underinsured, up from 35 percent in 2003.
  • U.S. now ranks last (19th) on mortality amenable
    to medical care,
  • 101,000 fewer people would die prematurely if the
    U.S. could achieve leading, benchmark country
    rates.
  • Rates of control of diabetes and high blood
    pressure, have improved significantly.

54
Left Out of Health Care Expenditures
  • Long-Term Care Services
  • Custodial care in nursing facilities
  • Assisted living
  • ADHC
  • Personal care
  • Senior centers
  • Nutrition centers

55
(No Transcript)
56
Yip, Myrtle, Wilber, Grazman (1999)
57
Current Approach to Long-Term Care is Not Working…
58
Workforce Issues for California Shortage of
caregivers, providers, and professional workers
  • American medical system is woefully unprepared
    for the flood of aging baby boomers (IoM, 2008)
  • In California only one geriatrician for every
    4,000 Californians age 65 and older
  • California faces a shortfall of 30,000 certified
    nursing assistants to care for the frail elderly
  • Currently 80 of care is provided informally by
    friends and family members
  • Baby boomer brain drain in State including state
    service

59
Manageable Models
  • ADPC/One Stops
  • Accessible and integrated services
  • Uniform assessment core appropriate information
    sharing across silos
  • Integrated information systems
  • Telephone monitoring (peers/buddies)
  • Consumer direction,
  • Preferences/Aging in choice
  • Aging in community
  • Support Families
  • Culturally Competent

60
Changing Housing needs
  • Will we need the current supply of single family
    homes?
  • Birth dearth
  • ¼ of Baby Boomers want to live in retirement
    housing
  • Working with developers
  • Visitability and universal design
  • Role of Co-housing
  • Transportation
  • Integrated Services

61
Next Steps
Photo by Genaro Molina, 1993
62
Last Thoughts Ideas
  • Diversity Implications
  • Stay close to your participants and
    non-participants
  • Use focus groups, listening sessions, ways to
    introduce innovations
  • What is working?
  • What do they need/want?
  • What would bring people in?
  • Seniors Count (LA) Dental Services, Wellness,
    exercise

63
Normalize Services
  • Café Models rather than senior centers
  • Promote opportunity
  • Life long learning
  • Encore careers
  • Intergenerational
  • Work in Schools (Sheri Lansing)
  • Book clubs, art, culture



64
Innovations
  • Fitness and wellness
  • Intergenerational Programs
  • Giving back
  • Empowerment
  • Reciprocity

65
Build on Experience
  • Caregiver support
  • PTA model
  • Getting involved with leadership
  • Service banking
  • Build Community
  • Repertoire of Services/Choice
  • Help with Transitions (Hospital, SNF, accessing
    services)
  • Marin ModelProject Independence

66
Building Capacity of Aging Network Services
  • Prevention using EBP
  • Fall prevention
  • Medication Management
  • Exercise/wellness
  • Disease management/Disease self-management
  • Rebalancing/Olmstead
  • Expand HCBS
  • Links to housing and transportation
  • MFP
  • IFP (IIS service tracking, costs and planning)

67
Change Language/Change Paradigm
  • Problems
  • Senior
  • Services
  • Volunteer
  • case management
  • nutrition programs
  • Independent Living
  • Resource coordinator
  • Service Navigator
  • Peer Counseling Peer-to-peer programs
  • Wellness
  • Disease self management

68
Normalizing Facility Care Eden Alternative
Model
  • …dedicated to helping others create enlivening
    environments and the elimination of the plagues
    of Loneliness, Helplessness, and Boredom. We are
    dedicated to helping people grow.
  • We must teach ourselves to see the environments
    as habitats for human beings rather than
    facilities for the frail and elderly
  • Spontaneity and variety are valued

69
Eden Values
  • Loving companionship is the antidote to
    loneliness. Elders deserve easy access to human
    and animal companionship.
  • The antidote to helplessnessAn Elder-centered
    community creates opportunity to give as well as
    receive care.

70
Normalize Services Greenhouses (from
websitehttp//www.ncbcapitalimpact.org/default.asp
x?id148)
  • De-institutionalizes long-term care by
    eliminating large nursing facilities and creating
    habilitative, social settings.
  • Small intentional community for a group of elders
    and staff.
  • Alters facility size, interior design, staffing
    patterns, and methods of delivering skilled
    professional services.
  • Elders can receive assistance and support
    without the assistance and care becoming the
    focus of their existence.

71
The Last Word Drucker on Change…
  • Change needs to be build on strategic realities
  • Instill value, create culture of change as
    opportunity
  • Cant manage change stay ahead of it
  • Change strategies
  • Organized abandonment of yesterday
  • What contributes/what doesnt?
  • Maintaining yesterdays baggage is costly
  • Key questions
  • If we didnt already do this, would we?
  • If we would do this, are we doing it the best
    way?

72
Druckers Change Strategies
  • Organized continuous quality improvement
  • Exploit success/feed opportunities
  • Novelty is not innovation
  • Motion is not action
  • Create change through systematic innovation
  • Test innovative ideas through piloting
  • Balance change and continuity

73
More Drucker on Change…
  • To try to make the future is highly risky.
  • It is less risky, however, than not to try to
    make it.
  • A goodly proportion of those attempting to
  • implement change will surely not succeed.
  • But, predictably no one else will (page 93).
  • Drucker (1999). Management Challenges for the
    21st Century. New York Harper Collins
    Publisher.

74
We are stardust We are golden And we've got to
get ourselves Back to the garden
We are stardust We are golden And we've got to
get ourselves Back to the garden from
Woodstock    by Joni Mitchell
from Woodstock    by Joni Mitchell
About PowerShow.com