Turnout in European Parliament Elections: Towards an analytical and policymaking framework Richard S

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Turnout in European Parliament Elections Towards
an analytical and policy-making
frameworkRichard SinnottUCD Geary
InstituteUniversity College DublinEB
Conference, Gothenburg, 29 Sept 2009
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Turnout by country, EP Election 2009
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Need

• a conceptual framework

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Reasons for abstention Type A

• busy, would have but did not get home in time
• working double shift, no time
• new baby arrived
• had no one to baby-sit my six children
• couldnt get to voting station due to caring for
  my aunt
• incapacitated due to old age.
• lashing rain
• because it was wet and I had no way of getting
  to the polling station
• couldnt get there, no one came to collect me
  (from a respondent dependent on a wheelchair)

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Reasons for abstention Type B

• I couldnt be bothered
• I have no interest I dont follow politics
• no interest this time.
• Its a lot of bullshit. I dont believe in any
  of them. They all talk shite.
• What difference would it make? Have a look
  around here its awful
• they promise you the moon and the stars and when
  the time comes they do nothing for you.
• I did not want Fianna Fail to get an overall
  majority and I have no faith in the other
  parties
• didnt understand anything about the system
• no differences between parties, no real choice
• Nobody approached me for a vote, so when nobody
  did I figured it wasnt worth giving

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First DistinctionTwo types of abstention

• Type A - Circumstantial
• Type B - Voluntary

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Second DistinctionTwo types of strategies for
dealing with two types of abstention

• Facilitation (anti-circumstantial)
• Mobilisation (anti-voluntary)

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Third DistinctionTwo levels of variables

• Institutional variables
• Individual variables

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A model of the determinants of electoral
participation
Individual facilitation
Institutional facilitation
vote/ abstain
balance

• Individual mobilisation

• Institutional mobilisation

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Facilitation and mobilization

• The stronger the mobilization, the less important
  the facilitation
• The weaker the mobilization, the more important
  the facilitation
• The European Parliament exhibits weak
  mobilization

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Conclusions

• The EP has a problem
• Its causes are
• lack of facilitation
• and lack of mobilization
• Causes point to policies i.e. to
• Doing things that make it easy to vote
• Doing things that make people want to vote
• Type B - Voluntary

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Facilitation

• Day
• Hours
• Month
• Advance voting
• Polling cards
• Registration
• has implications for estimation of turnout (VEP
  versus electoral register)

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Mobilization

• Elect a European government
• Elect the President of the Commission
• Elect a coalition list
• Elect a party list
• Choose individual representatives
• Ensure proportionality
• Elect candidates and/or parties in small-N
  multi-seat constituencies (using PR-STV)

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Turnout in European Parliament Elections Towards
an analytical and policy-making
frameworkRichard SinnottUCD Geary
InstituteUniversity College Dublin