Information and Decision making: Labor Markets, Careers and Planning Presented by Richard Holden, Ch

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Information and Decision makingLabor Markets,
Careers and PlanningPresented by Richard
Holden, ChiefLabor Market Information
DivisionEmployment Development Department
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• Prologue
• Whats up in the economy?
• How does this affect labor markets and individual
  decision making?
• How can information assist in economic and labor
  market linkages?
• Ventura County example.

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Until 2001, California and U.S conditions
steadily improved
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• Beginning in Early 2001, a National Slowdown
  Halted Californias Growth
• U.S. payrolls fell by 1.9 million, mostly in 2001
• California lost 250,000 jobs
• California unemployed have grown by 35 percent,
  or nearly 300,000

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As a Result, Unemployment Rates Have Risen Since
March 2001

• U.S. now 5.8 percent, up from 3.9
• California now 6.5 percent, up from 4.9

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But the slowdown has been less severe than
previous storms
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Economists who expected renewed vigor in late
2002 were disappointed

• Over the past 12 months, California has added a
  paltry 5,000 jobs per month
• Meanwhile, the labor force has grown by 12,000
  per month
• Even though the unemployment rate fell in
  California and the U.S., payrolls are still
  lagging the labor force

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Prospects this year and next

• Very slow employment growth in U.S. and
  California (less than 1 percent)
• Moderate growth in 2004, 2005 (2.5
  percent)
• Payroll growth would exceed labor force change
• Lots of uncertainty with world events

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Okay, Lets Assume We Have an Economy

• What are the current conditions?
• What are the longer-term projections?
• What will the projected demand for labor require
  and pay?

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Where are the jobs?
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Services Fastest and Largest Growth
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Where are the projected jobs by education and
training?
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Pay? Most pay well
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Implications of the California Data

• Californias short-term growth is uncertain
• Long-run projections show growth in services,
  government and trade
• Most of the new jobs require little more than on
  the job training
• Despite this, more than half of the jobs will pay
  more than 15 per hour

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And Now, What about Ventura County, for example?
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Venturas Labor Force is Employed!
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Ventura County is Outpacing LA and California
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Yet, Venturas Industrial Mix is Similar to the
States
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With Growth in Manufacturing and Services
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Occupational Employment Whats growing?

• Construction-- 38.6 percent
• Manufacturing-- 29.8 percent
• Services -- 17.8 percent
• From industry mix, services are twice as large as
  manufacturing and five times as large as
  construction

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Occupational Employment What type of jobs are
expected?

• ConstructionCarpenters, Painters and Paper
  Hangers, Electricians, and Supervisors
• ManufacturingAssemblers, Fabricators, Misc.
  Helpers/Laborers, Supervisors, and General
  Managers
• Services Various Teachers and Aides, and Misc.
  Helpers/Laborers

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And What Else is Important?

• Where is the population and workforce in the
  county?
• What are the participation levels in CalWorks and
  in Community Colleges?
• Trends in High School Dropouts?
• Finally, who else and what else do we need to
  know to effect change?

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Exercise Information for Creative and
Collaborative Leadership

• What are the key pieces of information in your
  county? Does one factor stand out?
• What surprises or intrigues you?
• What is most troubling or problematic?
• Do you have sufficient information?

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Exercise Your understanding of the county

• What would you say about the countys prospects?
• What assistance can your college provide to
  economic health?
• How would you help the workforce respond?
• Who are the most likely partners?

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Exercise Your charge this morning

• Individual Work on Questions10 mins
• Partner Discussions10 mins
• Agreed Upon Observations and Recommendations10
  mins
• Economic Development Role
• Career Development
• Report Out15 mins for all groups

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Thank you! Be sure to visit us on the Internet
at www.calmis.ca.gov
8/22/01 Slide 21