FRIENDSHIP AND DELINQUENCY OF ADOLESCENTS First results of a four wave study on adolescent

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FRIENDSHIP AND DELINQUENCY OF ADOLESCENTSFirst
results of a four wave study on adolescents
behavior and relations using an actor-driven
statistical model  Sunbelt conference,
Slovenia, May 2004   Andrea Knecht
a.b.knecht_at_fss.uu.nlChris Baerveldt
c.baerveldt_at_fss.uu.nlUniversity of Utrecht
Heidelberglaan 2 3584 CS Utrecht The
Netherlands Research programme
http//ppswmm.ppsw.rug.nl/steglich/dynamics/Fund
ed by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific
Research (NWO)
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Overview

•        Introduction
•         Theoretical framework
•         Data
•         Model description
•         Results
•         Further research

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Selection
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Influence
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Introduction

• Friends are more likely to behave similarly
  regarding delinquent behavior
• (e.g., Haynie 2002).
• How can similarity in delinquent behavior of
  adolescent friends be explained
• Do similar pupils select each other?
• or
• Do pupils influence each other?
• Problems of earlier research
• Only one mechanism is investigated (selection or
  influence)
• Other problems
• Cross-sectional data
• Peer reporting
• Network studies are rare

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Theoretical framework

• Actor-driven model
• Rational choice framework
• Implemented in the statistical model SIENA
• Basic assumptions
• Control of outgoing ties and degree of delinquent
  behavior
• Choice of behavior cost-benefit analysis
• Striving for social approval status and
  behavioral confirmation
• Relations to those who behave similarly are
  rewarding

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Hypotheses

• Selection
• DELINQUENT FRIENDSHIP
• BEHAVIOR RELATION
• Influence
• FRIENDSHIP DELINQUENT
• RELATION BEHAVIOR
• Note Selection and influence can operate
• simultaneously. Our study allows to disentangle
• both processes.

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Data Sample

• Pupils in first class of Dutch secondary school
• (Age 12-13 years)
• 14 schools with 126 classes (3,108 pupils)
• Different classes
• Educational level
• Denominations
• Regions (urban and rural areas)
• Size of school and classes
• 4 waves within one school year
• High response (gt 93)

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Data Measurements

• Network question Who are your best friends in
  class?
• Up to 12 nominations
• Behavior question
• Stealing
• Breaking something
• Graffiti
• Fighting
• Buying illegal copies of a music CD or a PC game
• 5 answer categories
• gt Delinquency scale (5-25)

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Importance of friends in class
August / September November/ December
Most friends in class 43.7 51.3
Most important friends in class 54.2 55.1
Number of best friends in class 3.55 4.17
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Delinquent behavior (in )
Aug./Sept. Aug./Sept. Nov./ Dec. Nov./ Dec.
boys girls boys girls
Steal 8.9 5.1 16.2 9.8
Break sth. 15.5 11.2 24.5 16.2
Fight 39.3 20.4 51.3 26.6
Graffiti 10.1 7.4 20.2 16.0
Having or buying an illegal copy 57.0 39.6 65.8 50.0
Delinquency Scale 7.65 6.42 8.72 7.14
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Network model

• Friendship relations as dependent variable
• Expected effects

X Y Friendship relation
Delinquent behavior (sim.)
Controlling for Controlling for
Density -
Reciprocity
Actors at distance 2 -
Popularity
Friends at primary school
Gender (similarity)
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Behavior model

• Delinquent behavior as dependent variable
• Expected effects

X Y Delinquent behavior
Delinquent behavior of friends (Similarity)
Delinquent behavior x popularity of friend
Gender (girl 1 boy 2)
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Results Example for behavior and network effects
in one SIENA model for one network and three waves
Estimate Standard error
EFFECT ON NETWORK EFFECT ON NETWORK EFFECT ON NETWORK
Rate (period I) 9.25 2.17
Rate (period II) 3.64 0.69
Delinquent behavior similarity 0.07 0.40
Density -1.42 0.33
Reciprocity 1.30 0.23
Actors at distance 2 -0.82 0.15
Friends at primary school 0.41 0.23
Gender (similarity) 0.31 0.22
EFFECT ON BEHAVIOR EFFECT ON BEHAVIOR EFFECT ON BEHAVIOR
Rate (period I) 18.92 16.37
Rate (period II) 9.87 7.16
Delinquent behavior similarity 1.09 3.26
Similarity x popularity alter -0.30 1.32
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Network model Results of meta analysis (SIENA
parameters for 20 networks)
Mean S.E. Variance S.E. of Variance
Rate 8.222 0.609 3.596 2.170
Density -1.823 0.127 0 0
Reciprocity 1.402 0.098 0.051 0.057
Distance 2 -0.925 0.053 0.006 0.015
Primary school 0.574 0.121 0.086 0.084
Gender 0.688 0.098 0 0
Delinquency 0.122 0.014 0 0
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Further research

• Extension of the analysis
• More networks
• Four measuring points
• Behavior as dependent variable
• Considering the difference between creating and
  breaking a tie
• Meta analysis with complete model (network and
  behavioral effects)

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References

• Haynie, D. L. (2002). "Friendship networks and
  delinquency the relative nature of peer
  delinquency." Journal of Quantitative Criminology
  18 99-134.
• Snijders, T. (2001). The statistical
  evaluation of social network dynamics.
  Sociological Methodology. S. M. and B. M. Boston
  and London, Basil Blackwell 361-395.
• Snijders, T. and C. Baerveldt (2003). "A
  Multilevel Network Study of the Effects of
  Delinquent Behavior on Friendship Evolution."
  Journal of Mathematical Sociology 27 123-151.

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Selected questions from the pupils questionnaire
I

• Network questions
• A maximum of 12 nominations is possible
• Measured only once
• With whom from your classmates have you been
  friends at primary school?
• Measured at four time points
• Who from your classmates helps you with practical
  problems such as homework?
• Who from your classmates helps you when you are
  at a loss?
• With whom do you talk about personal things such
  as problems at home?
• Who are your best friends at class?
• With whom from your class would you like to be
  friends?
• Who in your class do you not like?
• With whom from your class do you arrange to meet
  outside school?
• Who in your class did bully you?
• Who in your class listens to the same music?
• Who in your class likes the same clothes?
• Whom in your class would you lend Euro 25?
• Whom in your class would you never lend Euro 25?
• Whose opinion from someone in your class is
  important to you?
• With whom from your class do you compare grades?

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Selected questions from the pupils questionnaire
II

• Behavior questions
• Answer categories Never, once, 2 to 4
  times, 5 to 10 times, more than 10 times
• What have you done in the last three months?
  (Asked at four measuring points)
• Delinquent behavior stealing, fighting,
  graffiti, having or buying illegal copies of PC
• game or CD, breaking something
• School behavior being late, skipping class
• Life style others smoking, drinking
• Background information
• For example
• Socio-economic status of parents
• Religion
• Ethnicity
• In addition to the four pupils questionnaire, we
  also have four questionnaires for the class
• teachers.
• Questionnaire (in Dutch) available on request