Title: Rodel D' Lasco
1INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS,
ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY IN WATERSHED
AREAS AND COMMUNITIES IN SE ASIA (AS21)
- Rodel D. Lasco
- University of the Philippines
Rodel D. Lasco University of the Philippines
2Introduction
- Philippines gt 70 of the total land area lies
within watersheds - 421 principal river basins
- Irrigate gt 1.5 M ha of agricultural lands
- Hydropower major energy source
- 18-20M people living in uplands
- Indonesia most of watersheds in Java are already
at critical stage
3 Landuse change in watersheds
4Project objectives
- Assess the impacts of climate change to water
resources, forest ecosystems, and social systems - Conduct integrated vulnerability assessment of
natural and social systems - Develop adaptation strategies
- Promote stakeholder participation
- Contribute to peer reviewed literature
- Help build capacity of local scientists
5Research Team
- Philippines University of the Philippines at Los
Baños (UPLB) - Department of Environment and Natural Resources
(DENR) - Prof. Dr. Rodel D. Lasco
- Prof. Dr. Rex Victor O. Cruz
- Dr. Juan M. Pulhin
- DENR representative
- Indonesia Institute Pertanian Bogor Dr.
Rizaldi Boer - Dr. Ekawati S. Wahyuni Ir
6- Key Partners
- Dr. Meine van Noordwijk
- International Center for Research in
Agroforestry (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia - Dr. Josep Canadell
- GCTE, Australia
- Scientists from Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia
- National government agencies, NGOs and peoples
organizations
7Methods
- study will focus on a watershed each in the
Philippines (Pantabangan watershed) and Indonesia
(Tulang Bawang Watershed). - Stakeholders will be involved at various steps of
the research process
8The Pantabangan Watershed
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19Research Framework
20Climate scenario MAGICC-SCENGEN
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22Table 1. Precipitation anomalies of DJF and JJA
in 2080 using SRESA2 and SRESB2 scenarios for
nine General Circulation Models in one part of
Citarum Watershed
Source Provided by Xian Fu (2002).
23Land Use/Cover Change The CLUE Model (Verlag,
2002)
24Forest ecosystems carbon
25The CO2-Fix Model
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27Water Resources OVER-ALL VIC Model(Link with
AS07 Snidvongs et al.)
Liang et al. (1994)
28River Network in Dynamic Routing Model
Lohmann et al. (1996)
29DATA For Model
- Data for VIC Model
- Forcing Data
- Precipitation
- Maximum Temperature
- Minimum Temperature
- Wind speed
- Template Data
- Soil property
- Land cover
- Elevation
- Data for Routing Model
- Elevation
- Stream Network
- Discharge Data
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31Human dimension
- Impacts and adaptation of local communities
- Primary and secondary data
- Field reconnaissance and establishment of rapport
- Participatory vulnerability and adaptation
assessment - Present vulnerability and adaptation of local
communities to climate variability and extremes
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33Human dimension (cont)
- combination of participatory techniques such as
stakeholder analysis, time line and community
mapping - These techniques will be complemented by
interviews of households - future impacts of climate change will be assessed
based on the local peoples experiences and
responses to past climate variability and
extremes
34Capacity Building
- The training/workshop on climate change impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability November 25 to
December 8, 2002 - 6 participants from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam
- Small research grants provided
35STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
Discussion with agriculture extension workers and
farmers at Bandung District, Indonesia
36NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan, Philippines
37DENR Briefing, Philippines
38CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines
39Thank you!