Trade

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SPECIAL PROGRAMME FOR THE ECONOMIES OF CENTRAL
ASIA (SPECA) Project Working Group on Trade
(Fourth session)
Aid for Trade (AfT) Needs Assessment
Jacek Cukrowski Economic Development and Poverty
Reduction Advisor, UNDP, Europe and the
CIS Bratislava Regional Centre
Geneva, Switzerland, 26 October 2009
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Outline

• Objectives of AfT Needs Assessments
• Main focus and message
• The Guide
• Proposed structure
• Current work on Aft Needs Assessments in Europe
  and the CIS

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Objectives Why Trade Needs Assessments?
Identify a set of policy recommendations and
technical assistance needs aimed at improving the
contribution of trade to human development

• Identify and overcome existing barriers to trade
• Identify the cost of adjusting to current or
  anticipated trade agreements / trade shocks
• Review country competitiveness and export
  performance
• Assess the impact of trade on poverty and human
  development
• Tackle institutional and infrastructure capacity
  limitations
• Suggest action plans to remove bottlenecks and
  seize opportunities for the poor

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Main focus Impact of trade on human development

• Trade can be a powerful source of economic
  growth
• but while broadly based economic growth is
  necessary for human development, it is not enough
• Human development also requires enlarging
  peoples choices and opportunitiesespecially
  poor peoples
• liberalizing trade does not ensure poverty
  reduction or human development, nor does it
  guarantee immediate economic growth
• The nature of resource allocation and social
  inclusion are important determinants of growth
  leading to poverty reduction and human
  development
• for women and those participating in the informal
  sector, especially

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Main messagesOpening trade is key for human
development

• It improves economic base
• It broadens a range of human choice
• but there could be some short-term human
  development risks that needs to be well
  understood and countries need to be prepared to
  minimize possible negative impact of trade on
  selected social groups

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Main messages Trade should be integrated into
national development policy

• Opportunities to use trade to reduce poverty and
  promote human development should be identified
• Human development risks related to trade shocks
  needs to be understood
• Suitable institutions need to be developed to
  ensure multi-stakeholder participation in trade
  policy design

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Trade and national development strategies

• If trade is to serve as an engine of economic
  growth countries must develop a multidimensional
  strategy for trade expansion
• Framed in an appropriate macroeconomic
  environment
• Structural and social concerns should be treated
  equally with macroeconomic and financial concerns
• Trade reforms should be an integral part of
  comprehensive development frameworks

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The GuideHow to Conduct AfT Needs Assessments
Regional guide
Global guide
http//europeandcis.undp.org/poverty/trade/show/8B
D35D19-F203-1EE9-B08767E3833D66C6
http//www.undp.org/geneva/docs/trade-AFT20web.pd
f
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Contents of the Guide

• Introduction
• 2. Trade Mainstreaming
• 3. Trade and Human Development
• 4. AfT Needs Assessment Structure and Process
• 5. Macroeconomic and Business Environment
• 6. Trade and Investment Policies
• 7. Trade Facilitation and Standards
• 8. Sectoral Analysis
• 9. Trade Policies An Impact Assessment
• 10. Final Remarks, Action Matrix and Launching
  the Study

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Proposed structure of AfT Needs Assessments
(I) Introduction . short country background, key
analytical questions (II) Macroeconomic and
business environment macroeconomic background
(related to poverty, human development, trade and
competitiveness) (III) Trade and investment
policy policies and trade and investment
dynamics, institutions, trade agreements and
market access (WTO accession trade negotiation
strategy) (IV) Trade facilitation customs
procedures, transportation costs, red tapes and
other behind-the-border barriers to trade
underlying causes of inefficiency (V) Sectoral
analysis sectors where trade has the biggest an
impact on poverty reduction and human development
(VI) Trade policy impact assessment (optional)
impact of trade policy options on poor (VII)
Conclusions and action matrix Recommendations
in the form of an Action Matrix. Highlight
capacity gaps and propose actions and technical
assistance projects to overcome weaknesses.
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Action Matrix

• Action recommended
• Desired outcome and target indicator
• Timeline for completion of action
• Agencies involved
• Required resources
• Required donor support

• Important issues
• Action priorities
• Matching with trade related technical assistance

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Current work on AfT Needs Assessments in Europe
and the CIS

• UNDP regional project Wider Europe AfT for
  Central Asia, South Caucasus and Western CIS
  (2009-2010)
• Project financed by the Government of Finland
• Component I AfT in Central Asia Identification
  of National and Regional Priorities
• Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
  Turkmenistan initiated (Uzbekistan planned)
• AfT Road Map for SPECA Countries (Ministerial
  Conference planned for 2010)
• Component III AfT Needs Assessments in South
  Caucasus and Western CIS (planned for 2010)
• Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine

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Thank you

• Jacek.Cukrowski_at_undp.org

• UNDP Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional
  Centre
• http//europeandcis.undp.org