The Role of Efficiency In Meeting PNW Energy Needs

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The Role of Efficiency In Meeting PNW Energy
Needs

• Tom Eckman
• Manager, Conservation Resources
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council
• Energy Codes 2009
• July 28, 2009

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Todays Topics

• Energy Efficiencys Role in the PNW Power System
• Historical Impacts
• Projected Impacts of Future Energy Efficiency and
  Renewable Resource Development
• Can and Should More Be Done?
• The Almost Draft 6th Northwest Power
  Conservation Plans Assessment of the Remaining
  Energy Efficiency Potential and Regional
  Conservation Targets

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The Evolution of Energy Policy
October 11, 2002 President Carter Awarded Nobel
Peace Prize
April 18, 1977 Conservation means a cold dark
house President Carter announces we are engaged
in the moral equivalent of war (MEOW)
December 5, 1980 - Conservation declared a
resource equivalent to generation President
Carter signs Northwest Power and Conservation Act
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Northwest Power and Conservation Planning Act of
1980 (PL96-501)

• Authorized States of ID, OR, MT and WA to form an
  interstate compact (aka, The Council)
• Directed the Council to develop 20-year load
  forecast and resource plan (The Plan) and
  update it every 5 years
• The Plan shall call for the development of the
  least cost mix of resources
• The Plan shall consider conservation (energy
  efficiency) its highest priority resource
  equivalent to generation with a 10 cost
  advantage over power generating resources
• Mandated public involvement in Councils planning
  process.

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How Has It Worked?
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Utility Reaction to Councils First Plan Was
Mixed
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Three Decades of Utility Conservation
Acquisitions (aka Mr. Toads Wild Ride for
the PNWs Energy Efficiency Industry)
See http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Toad's_Wild_
Ride
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Nevertheless Since the Late 70s
Since 1978 Utility BPA Programs, Energy Codes
Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Almost
3600 aMW of Savings.
Weve Accomplished Mass Quantities
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So Whats 3600 aMW?

• Its enough electricity to serve more than the
  entire state of Idaho and all of Western Montana
• It saved the regions consumers nearly than 1.6
  billion in 2007
• It lowered 2007 PNW carbon emissions by an
  estimated 14.1 million tons.

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Since 1980 Energy Efficiency Resources More Than
Half of Regional Load Growth
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Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A
BARGAIN!
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Energy Efficiency Is The Regions Third Largest
Resource
Weve Saved The Equivalent to Almost Two Grand
Coulee Dams
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5th Plan Relied on Conservation and Renewable
Resources to Meet Nearly All Load Growth
Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2
control, conservation accomplishments) will
change resource development schedule and amounts.
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The Region Has Exceeded the 5th Plans Targets
Every Year
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Why Worry?
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Existing Power System Resources Are Dominated by
Non-CO2 Emitting Resources
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Total PNW Power System Carbon Emissions Have
Grown Significantly Since 1990
15 Coal Plants
23 Coal Plants
Existing Coal Plants Produce 85 of Total PNW
Power System CO2 and Provide 20 of the Regions
Power
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How Will This Impact the Power Systems Carbon
Footprint?
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Even If We Meet All Load Growth With Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Resources CO2 Emissions
from Existing Fossil Fueled Plants Remain
Unchanged
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Meeting the 5th Plans Conservation Goals AND
State Renewable Portfolio Standards Will Not Meet
WCI CO2 Emissions Targets
WCI Goal
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OK, So Whats The Answer?
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Avoided Costs Are Now Forecast to Be
Significantly Higher
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Energy Efficiency is Still the Cheapest Option
Assumptions Efficiency Cost Average Cost of
All Conservation in Draft 6th Power Plan Under
100 MWh Transmission cost losses to point of
LSE wholesale delivery 2020 service - no federal
investment or production tax credits Baseload
operation (CC - 85CF, Nuclear 87.5 CF, SCPC
85) Medium NG and coal price forecast (6th Plan
draft) 6th Plan draft mean value CO2 cost
(escalating, 8 in 2012 to 47 in 2029).
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So Whats Next?
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Theres Still Mass Quantities To Do6th Plan
Technically Achievable Conservation Potential by
Sector
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Residential Sector Conservation Potential
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Where Are the Savings? Commercial Sector
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Draft 6th Plan Calls for A Doubling of Annual
Energy Efficiency Savings the Over Next Decade
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Draft 6th Plan Goal Meet 85 of Load Growth
with Conservation
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Draft 6th Plan Resource Portfolio
Expected Value Build Out. Actual build out
schedule depends on future conditions
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Resource Options and Build-Out
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Impact on Regional Revenue Requirement
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Estimated Cumulative Impact on Regional Revenue
Requirement to Achieve Proposed Conservation
Targets
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Draft 6th Plan PNW Power System Carbon Emissions
Drop Below 1990 Levels by 2020
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Take This With You!

• The PNW Can Meet Nearly All of Load Growth Over
  the Next 20 Years With Energy Efficiency at an
  Average Cost of Less Than 40 MWH
• This Will Require Sustained and A Much Larger
  (2x-3x) Investment In Cost-Effective Energy
  Efficiency
• Over the first five-years it will reduce regional
  revenue requirements by 1 - 1.5 as a result of
  fewer power market purchases
• Accomplishing the Almost Draft 6th Plans
  Conservation Goals Will Stretch the Columbia
  River
• In five years well build the equivalent of
  another Chief Joseph dam,
• In 12 years, well build the equivalent of Chief
  Joseph, plus Grand Coulee dams
• In 20 years, we will have added the equivalent of
  50 to the output of all hydroelectric
  resources in the PNW

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Conservation Cheap, But Worth It?
Any Questions?
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Reduced Conservation Lowers Rate But Increases
Consumers Bills
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Where Are the Savings?Space Conditioning
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Where Are The Savings?Water Heating, Lighting
and Appliances
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Where Are the Savings?Space Conditioning in New
Construction
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Where Are the Savings?Consumer Electronics
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Where Are the Savings? Commercial Sector
Interior Lighting
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Where Are the Savings? Commercial Sector
Exterior Lighting
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Conservation Significantly Reduced Load Growth
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Model Conservation Standards Decision Criteria

• The Act requires that the MCS be set at levels
  that
• achieve all regionally cost-effective power
  savings (i.e., cost less than new generation )
  and,
• that are economically feasible for consumers,
  taking into account financial assistance that may
  be made available through Bonneville

slide 4
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Zone 1 Life Cycle Cost Minimum Regional
Cost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
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Single Family Zone 1Energy Use
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Zone 2 Life Cycle Cost Minimum Regional
Cost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
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Single Family Zone 2Energy Use
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Zone 3 Life Cycle Cost Minimum Regional
Cost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
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Single Family Zone 3Energy Use