Prediction, Predictability and Applications Interface Panel PPAI 200506 Activity Report

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Prediction, Predictability and Applications
Interface Panel (PPAI)2005/06 Activity Report
Tom Delworth Lisa Goddard Alex Hall Wayne
Higgins Ben Kirtman Randy Koster
Nate Mantua Simon Mason Gerry Meehl Kelly
Redmond Gavin Schmidt
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PPAI

• Our mission is to foster improved practices in
  the provision, validation, and uses of climate
  information and forecasts through coordinated
  participation within U.S. and international
  climate science and applications communities.
• GOALS
• Further fundamental understanding of climate
  predictability at seasonal to centennial time
  scales
• Improve provision of climate forecast
  information, particularly with respect to drought
  and other extreme events
• Foster research and development of prediction
  systems of climate impacts on ecosystems
• Enable use of CLIVAR science for improved
  decision support

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PPAI Panel Activities(General)

• US CLIVAR Working Groups
• - Sub-seasonal Variability (MJO) WG together
  with POS PSMI
• - Drought WG together with POS
• Interaction with Agencies
• NOAAs CVP program
• NOAAs CPP Office
• Scoping post-doc program (NSF and NOAA)
• Encouraging further CMEP-like activities (NSF and
  NOAA, and IAG, in general)
• Panels Committees
• International CLIVAR panels (SSG, VAMOS, WGSIP,
  WGCM)
• NOAAs Climate Test Bed (CTB Director, 1 SAB, 3
  CST)
• NOAAs Office of Climate Observations Climate
  Observing Systems Council

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Predictability Review Papers (Goals 1,4)

• 3 papers, covering predictability and prediction
  issues on the seasonal-to-interannual (SI),
  decadal, and climate change timescales
• The SI review is drawing on model data provided
  through the WCRP-COPES Task Force on Seasonal
  Prediction and WGSIP
• The reviews for the longer timescales are less
  developed, but will be mapped out at the Summit
• Document current SI skills for the US, and serve
  as a template for similar analyses for other
  regions
• Document current efforts and challenges of
  delivering information on longer timescales

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Workshop on Decadal Predictability of the
Atlantic(Goal 1)

• Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic convened
  at GFDL, June 1-2, 2006
• The aim of the meeting was to sharpen ideas on
  Atlantic decadal predictability, which components
  might be predictable, whether and how to go
  forward and set up experimental predictability
  systems and what observations would be required
  to test, improve and initialize them.
• Overlap with POS PSMI
• Organizing committee Ants Leetmaa, Tom Delworth
  (PPAI), John Marshall (POS), Tony Rosati

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2006 AGU Special Session(Goals 1,2,3,4)

• Special session for Fall 2006 AGU
• Increasing credibility of climate predictions
• The purpose of this session is to examine the
  credibility of state-of-the-art climate
  predictions from seasonal to centennial
  timescales, with an eye toward improving them
• Overlap with POS PSMI

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Applications Interface Post-Doctoral
Program(Goal 4)

• Join decision makers in local, state, regional,
  or federal agencies (e.g. FEMA, USDA) with young
  climate scientists
• Increase the demand of climate information, and
  hence climate research
• Grow the pool of qualified individuals to work at
  this important interface between climate science
  and its uptake
• To cover 3-5 post-docs will cost less money per
  agency than a typical single grant award

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PPAI Focus at 2006 US CLIVAR Summit

• Prediction/predictability across timescales
• ? DECADAL VARIABILITY is the outstanding
  scientific challenge
• DV is the link between SI and CC
• DV is relevant to both SI and CC prediction
• Current PPAI Goals and Activities align well with
  DV as a prime (though not sole) focus of US
  CLIVAR
• Prediction reviews
• Climate impacts and ecosystems
• International collaboration