CHANGES OF HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES AND SNOW REPRESENTATION

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CHANGES OF HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES AND SNOW
REPRESENTATION IN EUROPE AND ASIA IN CASE OF
DEFORESTATION OF SIBERIA (RESULTS OF GCM
NUMERICAL EXPEREMENTS) KONSTANTIN G.
RUBINSTEIN, SERGEY GROMOV Hydrometeorological
Centre of Russia, Bol.Predtechensky per, 9 -13,
Moscow 123242, Russia. rubin_at_mecom.ru. ANDREY B.
SHMAKIN Institute of Geography, Russian Academy
of Sciences,
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Several words about GCM of Hydrometcentre of
Russia

The
The vertical structure of model
Mean Precipitation and near surface temperature
for many models
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Comparison of RHMC Model results with other
models
Coefficients of correlation between modeling
and climate precipitation on northern
hemisphere land
Coefficients of correlation between modeling
and climate temperature on northern hemisphere
land
RMS of modeling and climate temperature on
northern hemisphere land
RMS of modeling and climate precipitation on
northern hemisphere land
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Land surface hydrology parameterizations

• Algorithm of procedure is based on realization of
  hydrological balance equations.
• For evaluation of local soil water balance the
  following processes are taken into account
• a) Interception of precipitation by the given
  type of vegetation
• b) Surface and subsurface runoff
• c) Infiltration of water into soil
• d) Evapotranspiration from soil and vegetation
• e) Water diffusion between soil layers
• f) Soil water replenishment by rivers.

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Snow parameterization

• The background land albedo
• is modified by snow cover Sn
• where the albedo of the snow's 0.8 and Sn is
  0.01 m of equivalent liquid water.
• over the snow-covered areas, albedo values are
  closer to 0.8.
• The snow depth in meters of equivalent liquid
  water
• .

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Numerical experiments

• We have carried out two 20-year experiments. In
  both experiments, the sea surface temperature was
  changed each month according to the 1979-1996
  AMIP data set.
• The first experiment is referred to as
  "control".
• We will demonstrate several characteristics
  of the snow as a particularly good diagnostic of
  model evolution, since in order to correctly
  model the snow cover and snow depth, both the
  temperature and precipitation schemes must be
  realistic.
• In the second experiment, we artificially changed
  the vegetation and soil types in Siberia. Namely,
  the forests were replaced by grass vegetation.

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Analysis of snow representation

• Average Snow Cover Average Snow Mass
• Eurasian snow for 11 GCMs in
  AMIP-experiments,
• satellite NOAA data and SDS snow climate

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Analysis of mean February snow representation

• SDC
• RHMC
• INM
• MGO

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ANALISYS OF CHANGE INTEGER CHARAKTERISTICS IN
DEFORESTATION of SIBIRIAEXPERIMENT
Average on Sibiria Precipitation (blak-base ex,
blue sib ex, green reanalysis)
Seainp base ex.
Average on Sibiria Evaporation (blak-base ex,
blue sib ex, green reanalysis)
Change of Seainp by Sib. Ex
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Changes of runoff in main river basins of
Eurasia in experiment of Siberia deforestation
Seasonal change of Caspian (Volga,Terek,Kura)
runoff
Seasonal change of Lena river runoff
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Conclusions

• 1. Snow representation of RHMC model is quite
  realistic
• 2. The new parameterization scheme of
  hydrological processes gives one an opportunity
  to obtain main characteristics of hydrological
  regime both in the atmosphere and on the land
  surface.
• 3. Results of numerical experiments
• with deforestation in Siberia
• show that the model is sensitive to the
• land cover parameters.
• 4.The tendencies of climate changes connected
  with deforestation of large regions (or other
  anthropogenic transformations of the land use)
  can be investigated by such tool like GCM with
  advanced hydrological parameterization scheme.

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GOOD BY

• Till new conferences
• Thank you for attention