Science Focus Areas in the Earth Science Enterprise and GPMs Contribution

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Science Focus Areas in the Earth Science
Enterprise and GPMs Contribution

• Jack A. Kaye, Ph.D
• Director Research Division
• June 15, 2004

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Overview

• ESE Research Strategy - 24 Questions
• Focus Areas
• Roadmaps for Focus Areas
• Where GPM Fits in
• US Climate Change Science Program and GPM role

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ESE Fundamental Science Questions
How is the Earth changing and what are the
consequences of life on Earth?

• How is the global Earth system changing?
• What are the primary forcings of the Earth
  system?
• How does the Earth system respond to natural and
  human-induced changes?
• What are the consequences of changes in the Earth
  system for human civilization?
• How well can we predict future changes in the
  Earth system?

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ESE Next Tier Science Questions
Variability
Forcing
Response
Prediction
Consequence
Precipitation, evaporation cycling of water
changing?
Atmospheric constituents solar radiation on
climate?
Clouds surface hydrological processes on
climate?
Weather variation related to climate variation?
Weather forecasting improvement?
Global ocean circulation varying?
Changes in land cover land use?
Consequences of land cover land use change?
Improve prediction of climate variability
change?
Ecosystems, land cover biogeochemical cycles?
Motions of the Earth Earths interior?
Changes in global ocean circulation?
Coastal region impacts?
Ozone, climate air quality impacts of
atmospheric composition?
Global ecosystems changing?
Atmospheric composition changing?
Atmospheric trace constituents responses?
Carbon cycle ecosystem change?
Regional air quality impacts?
Ice cover mass changing?
Sea level affected by Earth system change?
Change in water cycle dynamics?
Earth surface transformation?
Predict mitigate natural hazards from Earth
surface change?
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Science Questions and Focus Areas
Variability
Forcing
Response
Consequence
Prediction
Precipitation, evaporation cycling of water
changing?
Atmospheric constituents solar radiation on
climate?
Clouds surface hydrological processes on
climate?
Weather variation related to climate variation?
Weather forecasting improvement?
Global ocean circulation varying?
Changes in land cover land use?
Consequences of land cover land use change?
Improve prediction of climate variability
change?
Ecosystems, land cover biogeochemical cycles?
Motions of the Earth Earths interior?
Changes in global ocean circulation?
Coastal region impacts?
Ozone, climate air quality impacts of
atmospheric composition?
Global ecosystems changing?
Atmospheric composition changing?
Atmospheric trace constituents responses?
Carbon cycle ecosystem change?
Regional air quality impacts?
Ice cover mass changing?
Sea level affected by Earth system change?
Change in water cycle dynamics?
Earth surface transformation?
Predict mitigate natural hazards from Earth
surface change?
Climate Variability and Change Atmospheric
Composition Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems
Weather Water and Energy Cycle Earth
Surface and Interior
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The Roadmapping Challenge

• Need to be able to demonstrate goal at end of
  reasonable time interval (e.g., decade)
• Scientific knowledge
• Societally relevant products and their impacts
• Need to demonstrate connection between where we
  are now and where we expect to be
• Need to show that different components of ESE
  research are integrated into uniform whole
• Need to demonstrate availability of intermediate
  milestones (focusing on outcomes and not
  outputs)
• Need to show interconnectedness of research
  activities (no stovepipies)
• Need to give sense of relationship of NASA
  activities to those of our partners

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Roadmap Organizing Principles

• Start showing sense of where we are and give
  vision of where we intend to be
• Indicate base of activities that supports other
  activities, esp. systematic measurements and
  partner-supplied information
• Provide sense of improved knowledge based on
  continuing research based on current information
  and capability
• Show inputs and corresponding outcomes based on
  current investments for present and near-term
  inputs
• Indicate longer lead term items that require
  technology development
• Provide some sense of whats likely to be doable
  within present program and what is not
• Roadmaps should have levels of detail to allow
  interested user to dig in without distracting
  those needing broad view

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Improved precipitation forecasts that support
Water supply Decision Support System with 7-10
day lead time seasonal water supply forecasting
ability
Global Water and Energy Cycle
River discharge monitored globally Snow water
equivalent observations
T
NASA
Global precipitation measurements (GPM)
Joint
Unfunded
Global Soil Moisture
T
field campaign
Quantify and elucidate mechanisms of the mean
state and variability of the water cycle,
including quantification of precipitation,
evaporation, runoff and water storages
Global estimates of ocean evaporation and land
evaporation
T Technology development required
Global monitoring of water and energy (GIFTS)
color assigned before HYDROS was upgraded from
backup ESSP
GOAL Models capable of predicting the water
cycle, including floods and droughts, down to
10s of kms
Vertical profiles of cloud structure and
properties (Cloudsat)
Cloud parameterization and precipitation/water-vap
or assimilation enabling more reliable short-term
precipitation forecasts and accurate roll of
clouds in climate predictions
Knowledge Base
Data assimilation of precipitation and water vapor
Detection of gravity perturbations due to water
distribution (GRACE)
Assessments of natural variability in
atmospheric, surface and subsurface moisture
stores
EOS/in-situ observations of land surface state
variables
Improved latent heating profiles and convective
parameterizations within weather and climate
models
Observations of tropical rainfall/energy
release(TRMM)
Ongoing model improvements Enhancements in
computing resources

• Reservoirs and tropical rainfall well quantified
• Difficulty balancing the water budget on any
  scale
• Inability to observe and predict precipitation
  globally

Systematic measurements of
precipitation, SST, land cover snow
IPCC Report
IPCC Report
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How Can Weather Forecast Duration and
Reliability Be Improved By New Space-Based
Observations, Assimilation, and Modeling?
T
Global tropospheric winds

• Improvements require
• Focused validation experiments
• New Technology
• Impact Assessments

Improved forecasts
Funded
Continuous lightning
Improved physical dynamical processes
Unfunded
T
Soil moisture
Field Campaign
Global Precipitation
High-resolution sounding for fast forecast updates
Global monitoring of water, energy, clouds, and
air quality/Operational prototype missions
New, high-resolution temperature and moisture
sounding will provide needed information to
describe the atmospheric dynamics, cloud
distributions for radiation modeling, aerosol
concentrations for air quality projection, and
better imagery of severe weather phenomena like
hurricanes, floods, and snow/ice cover.
High-resolution global measurements of
temperature, moisture, cloud properties, and
aerosols

• By 2015 Weather and severe storm forecasting
  should be improved greatly
• Hurricane landfall accurate enough for
  evacuation decisions
• Winter storm hazards determine at local levels
  for appropriate mitigation
• Regional forecasting of rain and snow accurate
  for economic decisions

Knowledge Base
Use of NOAA operational models to optimize
assimilation of NASAs new satellite data will
ensure realistic and accelerated use of new
technology and techniques.
NASA/NOAA collaborative centers
Satellite-derived localized heating inputs will
allow regional models to have better predictive
capabilities.
Observations of tropical rainfall/energy release
Steady, evolutionary improvement in weather
prediction accuracy due to ongoing model
refinement in operational agencies, finer-scale
model resolution, improved use of probabilistic
and statistical forecasting aided by
multiple-component ensemble initializations, and
incorporation of radar and aircraft-measurements
Weather satellite sensor and technique
development used by NOAA
Systematic meas. of atmosphere, ocean, and
land surface parameters
2007 NRA
2010 NRA
2004
2002
2006
2005
2011
2003
2012
2013
2014 2015
2008
2009
NRA
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CCSP Incorporates Long-Term global Change and
Focused Climate Change Research

• 13 Federal Agencies/Departments coordinate their
  activities through the Climate Change Science
  Program (CCSP)
• Works with university-based and Federal
  scientists
• Close coordination with energy technology programs

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CCSP Goals Will Integrate Information from
USGCRP and CCRI on Climate Change

• CCSP Goal 1 Improve knowledge of the Earths
  past and present climate and environment,
  including their natural variability, and improve
  understanding of the causes of observed
  variability and change
•  
• CCSP Goal 2 Improve quantification of the forces
  bringing about changes in the Earths climate and
  related systems
•  
• CCSP Goal 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of
  how the Earths climate and related systems may
  change in the future
•  
• CCSP Goal 4 Understand the sensitivity and
  adaptability of different natural and managed
  ecosystems and human systems to climate and
  related global changes
•  
• CCSP Goal 5 Explore the uses and identify the
  limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and
  opportunities related to climate variability and
  change

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Global Water Cycle Overarching Questions
How does water cycle variability and change
caused by internal processes, climate feedbacks,
and human activities influence the distribution
of water within the Earth system, and to what
extent is this variability and change
predictable? What are the potential
consequences of global water cycle variability
and change for society and the environment, and
how can knowledge of this variability and change
improve decisions dependent on the water cycle?
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Global Water Cycle
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CCSP Observation Strategy
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A Shared Vision for Earth ObservationArticulated
by 34 Nations in an Earth Observation Summit
(July 31, 2003)
An international comprehensive, coordinated and
sustained Earth observation system

• Comprehensive meeting the needs of a variety of
  science and applications disciplines
• Coordinated multinational satellite, suborbital
  and in situ observing capabilities strategically
  coordinated via agreed standards and data
  exchange
• Sustained long-term, continued financial and
  in-kind support from funding authorities

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GPM in ESE Summary
ESE Mission to understand and protect our home
planet by using our view from space to study the
Earth system and improve prediction of Earth
system change.

• GPM will contribute to full spectrum of ESE
  activities, from characterizing variability, to
  improving predictive capability
• GPM is critical to water and energy cycle and to
  weather science focus areas, and represented on
  roadmaps
• GPM can be important contribution to Climate
  Change Science Program
• Implementation approach of GPM is highly
  consistent with goals from Earth Observing Summit

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Atmospheric Composition
Goal Improved prognostic ability for Recovery
of strat. Ozone. Impacts on climate and surface
UV Evolution of trop. ozone and aerosols.
Impacts on climate and air quality
International Assessment
International Assessment
International Assessment
NPOESS ozone trend and aerosol measurements
Accelerated (APS) aerosol measurements
Geostationary Tropospheric Composition Mission
High spatial temporal resolution products
Operational predictions linking ozone and
aerosols with climate and air quality
T
Evaluation of feedbacks between aerosols, O3,
H2O, and climate

T
Systematic stratospheric composition
Assessment of observed stratospheric ozone
recovery in response changing climate continuing
assessment of tropospheric ozone trends and
mechanisms
Ozone Continuity Mission Continued trend series
of ozone- and climate-related parameters
Evaluation of chemistry/climate interactions
using multi-decadal simulations of the
stratosphere troposphere. Quantification of
mechanisms in the evolution of tropospheric ozone.
Field campaigns stratosphere/troposphere
coupling satellite validation
Knowledge Base
Global observations of stratospheric
tropospheric constituents parameters Aura,
ENVISAT
Simulation of observed changes in tropospheric
stratospheric ozone, water vapor, aerosols and
potential impacts of future changes on climate
atmospheric chemistry
High lat. observations of O3, aerosol, H2O in
the UT/LS (SAGE III Science/ Validation
Campaigns)
Assessment of the potential for future major
ozone depletion in the Arctic
Steady Improvements in Assessment Models
o Melding of stratospheric tropospheric
chemistry o Coupling of chemistry and radiation
in GCMs o Assimilation of constituents in
models o Improved representations of aerosols
emissions o Increased spatial resolution

• 2000
• Halogen chemistry shown responsible for
  stratospheric O3 losses.
• Tropospheric O3 not well understood.
• Uncertainties in feedbacks between strat. O3
  recovery, trop. O3 trends, climate.
• Poor knowledge and modeling of the chemical
  evolution of aerosols

Systematic observations of O3, aerosol, and
O3-related climate-related trace gases
2002
2008
2010
2012
2014
2004
2006
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Goals (1) Characteriz-ation and reduction of
uncertainty in long-term climate prediction (2)
Routine probabilistic forecasts of precipitation,
surface temperature, and soil moisture (3)
Sea-level rise prediction
Climate Variability and Change
Earth System models capable of accurate global
and regional climate prediction
Long-term consistent climate data record (NPP,
NPOESS)
T
Advances in computational resources, high-end
models and data distribution software are
required at all stages

• 2002
• Experimental 12-month forecasts of surface
  temperature, precipitation
• Fair knowledge of global climate variables and
  their trends.
• Climate models that simulate long-term global
  temperature change with large uncertainty in
  forcings and sensitivity.

Validated ice and ocean models for sea level
change estimates
T
Decadal measurements of ice mass changes
Improved evaluation of climate sensitivity to
forcings
Global atmospheric CO2 (OCO)
T
Global atmospheric aerosols (Terra, Aqua, APS, )
Accurate energy and water representation in
climate models to enhance predictive capability
T
Global Soil Moisture
T
Global Cloud Characteristics (Cloudsat CALIPSO)
Improved ocean circulation models with ice
and atmospheric coupling to improve climate model
representation of ocean heat transport
Global sea surface salinity (Aquarius)
Improved Climate Data Records (NPP)
Knowledge Base
Observations of water mass movement (GRACE, Jason)
Improved space/time scales of ocean topography
(OSTM)
Measurements of ice sheet mass balance (ICESat,
GRACE, Aircraft, SAR)
Improved estimates of ice sheet contribution to
sea-level rise
SAR
Improved assessment of radiative forcing, its
variability and representation in models
Radiative forcing measurements (ACRIMSAT, SORCE,
Terra, Aqua )
Models with improved precipitation, air-sea and
air-land exchanges capable of seasonal and
subseasonal predictability of surface climate on
regional scales
Data assimilation of atmosphere, ocean, land used
in process studies (Terra and Aqua in conjunction
with GODAE CLIVAR)
Ongoing activities

• Model coupling
• Process characterization
• Forcing/Feedback assessment

• Climate sensitivity to forcings
• Predictability assessment
• Technology development

Comprehensive Climate Observations (Terra, Aqua,
ACRIMSAT, Jason, ICESat, SORCE, Quikscat, etc.)
Systematic measurements of certain greenhouse
gases, atmospheric moisture, sea surface
topography, ocean vector winds, clouds, aerosols,
radiation budget, surface temperatures, ice
cover, and solar irradiance
T
IPCC
IPCC
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Integrated global analyses
Carbon, Ecosystems, and Biogeochemistry
Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Coupling,
Model-Data Fusion, Assimilation)
Sub-regional sources/sinks

Funded
T
High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2
Unfunded
Carbon export to deep ocean
Profiles of Ocean Particles
T
Partnership
Models w/improved ecosystem functions
T Technology development
Physiology Functional Groups
T
Process controls identified errors in sink
reduced
Southern Ocean Carbon Program
Field Campaign
T
Reduced uncertainties in fluxes and coastal C
dynamics
New Ocean Carbon / Coastal Event Observations
Goals Global productivity and land cover change
at fine resolution biomass and carbon fluxes
quantified useful ecological forecasts and
improved climate change projections
Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, Disturbance
T
Terrestrial carbon stocks species habitat
characterized
CH4 sources characterized and quantified
Global CH4 Wetlands Flooding
Knowledge Base
Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO)
Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for
planet
N. American Carbon Program
N. Americas carbon budget quantified
Effects of tropical deforestation quantified
uncertainties in tropical carbon source reduced
Land Use Change in Amazonia
2002 Global productivity and land cover
resolution coarse Large uncertainties in
biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events
Models Computing Capacity
Process Understanding
Case Studies
Improvements
P
Land Cover (Landsat)
Land Cover (LDCM)
Land Cover (LDCM II)
Systematic Observations
Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS)
Ocean Color/Vegetation (VIIRS/NPP)
Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS)
Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)
Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)
IPCC
IPCC
2010
2012
2014
2015
2008
2002
2004
2006
Global C Cycle
Global C Cycle
NA Carbon
NA Carbon
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Focus Area Integration via Earth System Modeling
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Components of a Future Global System for Earth
Observation
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How can weather forecast duration and reliability
be improved by new space-based observations, data
assimilation, and modeling?

• Assimilation of TRMM precipitation data in global
  models
• Improves climate analysis
• Improves storm track forecast
• Improves precipitation forecast

5 day forecast of Bonnie storm track from
08/20/98 Red best track (NOAA
HRD) Green forecast from analysis
without TRMM data Blue forecast from
analysis with TRMM data