Daniel RutledgeJake Overton

1
Sustainable Futures Waikato WorkshopNarrows
Landing, Hamilton10 March 2005

• Daniel Rutledge Jake Overton
• Graham Sparling Robbie Price
• Anthony Cole (also NZCEE)

2
Roadmap

• Introduction Context
• Goals Objectives
• Approach

3
Sustainable Development Convergence

• Increasing concern over long-term future
  quality of life
• Engagement at a range of levels in society
• Global UN Millennium Development Goals
• NZ Sustainable Development Programme of Action
• Regional/Local Long-Term Council Community Plans
• Organisations/Business Triple-Bottom Line
  Reporting
• Individuals Recycling, Green Investing,
  Restoration
• Critical mass of knowledge, data, and technology
• Need for integrated, holistic planning and action

4
Landcare ResearchSustainable Futures NSOF
Waikato
Integrated Assessment Consortium
Sustainability Analysis
Canterbury
Marlborough
Policy Inter-organisational decisions barriers
Economic Market-drivenopportunities
NSOF Non-Specific Output Funding
5
Sustainable Futures Goals

• Sustainability and quality of life criteria
  routinely guide policy, planning, and behaviour
• Appropriate knowledge, tools, and information are
  available and used to plan for and achieve the
  desired quality of life
• Trade-offs among culture, economy, environment,
  and society (LTCCPs 4 well-beings) are better
  understood and inform decision-making
• Better defined consequences of a range of events
  from single, large scale events (e.g., tsunamis)
  to cumulative effects of many small decisions
  (e.g., urban sprawl)

6
Sustainable Futures WaikatoObjectives for
2004-2005

• Begin working with other research providers,
  government agencies, business and other
  stakeholders to enable true sustainable
  development
• None of us can do it alone
• Integrated planning forecasting wont happen by
  itself
• Begin developing capacity to ask What if?
• Research in frameworks to help long-term,integrat
  ed planning
• Sustainability Analysis
• Goals
• Integrated Modelling
• Scenarios
• Forecasts

7
Sustainability Analysis
Present
Integrated Modelling
8
Thus far in 04-05

• Establishing links building relationships
• Stakeholders
• Environment Waikato
• South Waikato District Council
• Thames-Coromandel District Council
• Research
• New Zealand Center for Ecological Economics
• AgResearch Ecosystems Human Well-Being NSOF
• SLURI (Sustainable Land Use Research Initiative)
• Identified case studies
• South Waikato land use conversion
• Thames-Coromandel urbanisation pressure

9
Approach
Society
Economy
Environment
Systems Modelling
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Generic Model
supplies labour
SOCIETY
I-O Table
consumes goods services
Primary Production
Population
earns
Manufacturing
Income
generates wastes
Wholesale/Retail
Zoning
influences
Services
requires
Land Use
requires
sets
ECONOMY
Government
pays
Rates
uses resources
affects
supplies resources
funds
Ecolink
Roads Bridges
Land Cover
Electricity Gas
accepts wastes
Soil Quality
Water
Biodiversity
Water Quality
Infrastructure
ENVIRONMENT(treated as a unit for visual
simplicity)
Water Source
spatial data
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Spatially explicit, systems approach

• Aims
• Sufficiently general
• Adaptable (e.g., turn different components on
  off)
• Portable (e.g., modify relationships to fit local
  conditions)
• Benefits
• Sets limits explicitly (e.g., only so much land,
  water, soil)
• Demonstrates importance of where
• Identifies previously difficult to detect
  relationships
• Allows different aggregations/combinations for
  analysis
• Drawbacks
• Much data not spatially explicit
• Many relationships will be estimates
• Technical issues (e.g., software)

12
Where to from here?

• Finish the models, working closely with South
  Waikato Thames-Coromandel district councils
• Report back on our progress
• Plan for 05-06 beyond in coordination with our
  partners
• Remain optimistic!
• Collaboration is the key!